Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析

针对影响油气管道安全运营的落石冲击问题,基于弹塑性力学、Cowper-Symonds本构模型和有限元方法,建立了球形落石冲击油气管道的计算模型,对管道动态响应过程进行了数值模拟。对冲击速度、落石半径、管道内压力和落石冲击位置进行了参数敏感性分析,研究了各参数对管道冲击变形的影响规律。结果表明:落石的冲击能量主要用于管道塑性变形;冲击过程中,落石与管道的接触区域由初始的椭圆斑逐渐变成了椭圆环;管道塑性变形随着冲击速度和落石半径的增大而增大,随内压和落石偏移度的增大而减小。该研究工作为油气管道的安全评价及防护工程的设计提供了参考依据,对保障油气安全运输具有重要的工程意义。     

运行参数对水蚯蚓生物吸持六价铬性能影响研究

水蚯蚓能通过摄食剩余污泥而使污泥减量,但剩余污泥中常含有各种重金属污染物.本文以颤蚓科蠕虫(Tubificidae)为研究对象,以六价铬为典型重金属污染物,考察运行工艺参数:初始铬浓度、p H、水蚯蚓投加量和温度对水蚯蚓吸持六价铬的影响.实验结果表明,在研究浓度范围内(0.1~8.0 mg·L-1),水蚯蚓对六价铬的吸持速率随铬浓度的增大而加快,单位质量吸持量从14.4 mg·kg-1(以干重计,下同)增加到312.7 mg·kg-1,但六价铬的吸持率却随Cr6+初始浓度的增加而降低;p H从6.0增加到8.0,水蚯蚓对六价铬的吸持速率随p H的上升而提高,吸持率和单位质量吸持量先明显增强,p H达到7.5后逐渐趋于平衡,即吸持最佳p H为7.5;水蚯蚓投加量从1.0 g(以湿重计,下同)增加到5.0 g时,吸持速率及吸持率均上升,但单位质量吸持量却随着水蚯蚓投加量的增加而减少;当温度在10~20℃范围内时,水蚯蚓对六价铬的吸持速率相对较慢,到25℃时,吸持速率明显加快,吸持率和单位质量水蚯蚓的吸持量的变化趋势与吸持速率的变化相一致,但当温度达到30℃,水蚯蚓会大量死亡,综合考虑,处理系统最佳温度宜控制在25℃.     

Sub-lethal toxic effects of deltamethrin on blood biochemical parameters of Japanese quail,Coturnix japonica

Feeding deltamethrin-contaminated grains to domestic poultry, such as quails may result in toxic effects in these birds. This study was done to investigate the effects of recommended doses of deltamethrin, sometimes used in grain storage silos, on Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica). Quails were fed grains contaminated with 0.25 and 0.50 mg deltamethrin per kg diet for 21 days and the effects on survival and blood biochemical parameters were studied. Plasma uric acid, creatinine levels, and creatinine phosphokinase activity in the blood were increased. Aspartate aminotransferase and lactate dehydrogenase activities and glucose levels significantly increased in birds treated with the high dose of deltamethrin. Alanine aminotransferase activity and albumin or cholesterol levels were not changed, and acetylcholinesterase and alkaline phosphatase activities, total protein and globulin in plasma were decreased. Administration of 0.25 mg/kg deltamethrin caused increased blood triglyceride levels, 0.50 mg/kg deltamethrin decreased triglyceride levels.     

洞庭湖钉螺扩散与水情变化规律

洞庭湖区是目前我国钉螺分布范围最广且血吸虫病疫情最难防治的疫区。为揭示近年来洞庭湖区钉螺扩散与疫区水情变化的关系，从洪水对钉螺扩散及其孳生地环境淹没时间影响考虑，提出了表征疫区钉螺扩散及孳生地变化的水情指标，选用最能综合反映洪水年水情变化的汛期平均水位作为疫区水情变化的表征指标，并以洞庭湖为例定量分析了洞庭湖区钉螺扩散与以城陵矶站汛期平均水位为指示性指标的疫区水情的相关关系。其结果显示洞庭湖区钉螺面积与湖区汛期平均水位线性相关性显著，其相关关系式为y＝0.107 2x+14382(r=0822,p<005)，其中y为洞庭湖区钉螺分布面积，x为城陵矶站汛期平均水位。     

基于GB/T 29309标准的HALT测试技术分析

本文以标准GB/T 29309-2012为基础,以某款开关电源为例,对HALT试验设备、工作极限与破坏极限、试验步骤及设备运行中注意点等方面展开介绍,为电子产品可靠性测试提供相关探讨。     

航空安全文化运行模式研究

依据安全文化基本原理,对航空安全文化模式进行系统化设计。将安全精神文化、制度文化、行为文化和物态文化4个子系统置于安全文化模式的大系统中,综合分析各子系统之间的互动关系及其对管理模式变革的影响。结合航空安全管理的特点,设计安全文化运行机制的结构框架。通过分析安全文化模式的运行过程和运行功能模块,实现航空安全文化模式的动态管理,使零散的安全文化模式得以系统化。航空安全文化模式的构建为航空运输企业建立了一个程序化、系统化、动态循环的管理过程,并以持续改进的思想指导企业系统地实现其安全目标。     

Interactions Among the Copper Species and Forms in Sea Water/Sediments and Copper Bioaccumulation in Oysters

Abstract

Earlier papers indicated that the first incident of green discoloration in oysters (Crassostrea gigas) and the mass mortality observed in 1986 along the Taiwan Erhjin Chi coastal area were caused by the higher contents of total copper and copper species (mainly bioavailable and free ion) in sea water. the copper in sea water would be sorbed by suspended matter and transferred to sediments, and the copper in the sediments would also be desorbed to sea water. Processes of copper adsorption and desorption are the major factors influencing the contents of total copper and copper species in sea water and sediments. in this study, the Erhjin Chi sediments were mixed with sea water by a shaker technique. When the mixture was shaken for one hour, analogous to tidal mixing in estuaries, only copper desorption from sediments was observed. If the shaking time is increased for more than 3 hours, the copper released from the sediments was resorbed to the remaining solid phases. the higher the contents of mud (91.71%) and total copper (701 mg kg^?1) in sediments, the higher the copper desorption rate (1.86 ppm hr^?1) and copper adsorption rate (0.50 ppm hr^?1) were observed. in sediments containing lower mud (0.80%) and lower copper (43.5 mg kg^?1), the copper desorption and adsorption rates were 0.83 ppm hr^?1 and 0.22 ppm hr^?1, respectively. the interactions among the total copper and copper species in sea water and sediments, chemical and ecological parameters, and copper bioaccumulation in oysters in the Erhjin Chi estuarine and coastal area are also discussed.     

袋式除尘器进气均布板结构参数对气流分布的影响分析

针对袋式除尘器的进气均布板主要结构参数对气流分布影响的问题,采用正交试验方法进行CFD模拟试验设计,并以气流速度相对均方根σ值作为气流均匀性的评价指标。研究结果给出了σ与板数n、板长L、挡板上端距灰斗顶部截面高度ΔH、挡板前后偏角θ及过滤风速v之间的函数关系式。表明适当增加n、增大ΔH和θ、减小L、降低v,可以提高进气流分布均匀程度,影响进气均匀分布程度的排序为L>θ>n>ΔH>ΔL。     

火电湿法烟气脱硫流程优化的实现方案研究

在给定脱硫流程模拟优化参数的情况下,尝试了基于DCS系统和基于OA局域网的两种优化控制改进方案,后一种方案解决了优化控制系统的安全性、稳定性、扩展性、易管理等问题。同时采用该控制系统的3号脱硫系统的控制效果最佳,且脱硫效率循环浆液泵功率比随着操作方式相近度的提高而呈递增趋势。