Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate‐Induced Risk to Conservation

Much of the biodiversity‐related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop‐climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near‐term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. Uso de Cambios en la Utilidad Agrícola para Cuantificar Riesgos Futuros para la Conservación Inducidos por el Clima     

WTO规则对西部开发的风险及机遇浅探

随着中国加入WTO进程的加快和西部大开发战略的实施,依法治国无疑是改善投资环境、促进西部开发的最有效手段之一。本文根据WTO基本原则与法制经济的相互关系和影响深入浅出地论述了WTO对西部开发的风险及机遇,并提出了针对性的策略和措施。     

Alternative treatments of the cost of time in recreational demand models: an application to whitewater kayaking in Ireland

The measurement of travel costs in recreational demand modeling has been a contentious issue for many decades. This article explores the use of a number of alternative methods of incorporating time costs in the travel cost modeling process. Travel cost values where the opportunity cost of time is excluded, where it is included as a percentage of the individual's reported wage rate and where it based on an estimated wage from a secondary data source (the European Community Household Panel) are compared and then used in a conditional logit model to estimate the demand for whitewater kayaking in Ireland. We then evaluate the effect of different treatments of the cost of travel time on the welfare impacts of a number of different management scenarios for kayaking rivers in Ireland, and find that statistically significant differences emerge.     

我国电子废物回收处理产业政策及机遇与挑战分析

针对近年我国频繁出台的电子废物回收处理产业政策,系统论述了其发展脉络,并从循环经济角度出发,分析了我国电子废物产业发展的主体思路,同时还对我国电子废物回收处理产业发展机遇与存在的问题进行剖析,对如何稳定企业的电子废物来源、提升产业技术水平及降低企业运营成本进行建议性分析。     

The Climate Value of Cycling

The reduction of CO₂ emissions constitutes one of the largest challenges of the current era. Sustainable transportation, and especially cycling, can contribute to the mitigation of CO₂ emissions since cycling possesses an intrinsic zero‐emission value. Few studies have been conducted that appraise the CO₂ reduction potential of cycling. Opportunity costs enable the estimation of avoided CO₂ emissions resulting from bicycle trips. The methodology developed in this research allows the attribution of a climate value to cycling by substituting bicycle trips with their most likely alternative transportation modes and calculating the resulting additional CO₂ emissions. The methodology uses data on the current modal shares of cycling mobility, the competition of cycling with other transportation modes, and CO₂ emission factors to calculate the climate value of cycling. When it is assumed that the avoided CO₂ emissions of cycling mobility could be traded on financial carbon markets, the climate value of cycling represents a monetary value. Application of the methodology to the case of Bogotá, Colombia — a city with a current bicycle modal share of 3.3% on a total of 10 million daily trips — results in a climate value of cycling of 55,115 tons of CO₂ per year, corresponding to an economic value of between 1 and 7 million US dollars when traded on the carbon market.     

北京市再生水利用生态环境效益评估

随着我国社会经济的快速发展和人口的持续增长,我国面临着日益严峻的水资源问题,再生水利用已成为解决水资源严重短缺、控制生态环境进一步恶化的有效措施.再生水利用不仅可以节约大量的新鲜水,而且还可以降低污水排放对环境的影响,具有巨大的生态环境效益,包括资源效益、环境效益和对人体健康的效益等.本研究采用机会成本法构建了再生水利用生态环境效益的评价体系,并以北京市为例对其再生水利用的生态环境效益进行了估算.结果表明,2010年北京市再生水利用具有可观的生态环境效益12.0亿,其中再生水替代新鲜水的资源效益占比重最大,环境改善效益和地下水补给效益也较大,其余效益较小或为负.北京市再生水利用的生态环境效益约为其直接经济收益的1.8倍,说明北京市再生水利用符合可持续发展的理念.相关方法与研究成果可以为推动我国再生水利用的发展提供科学依据.     

黑龙江省环境保护“十三五”时期面临的形势研究

“十三五”是全面实现小康社会的关键时期,黑龙江省环境保护面临经济发展进入新常态、“龙江丝路带”战略实施、能源结构调整优化等带来的机遇,同时也面临着经济欠发达且下行,污染治理更加艰巨;环境短板突出,化解难度大;社会关注度增强,改善环境质量的压力增大等方面的挑战.“十三五”时期,全省应把握好新形势下黑龙江省环境保护面临的机遇与挑战,以改善环境质量为核心,补齐环境短板,编制好环境保护“十三五”规划,为黑龙江省全面实现小康社会奠定良好的环境基础.     

基于碳汇的县南沟流域退耕林地补偿标准研究

补偿标准是退耕还林生态补偿的核心与难点,为探讨黄土高原退耕林地合适的补偿标准,论文基于清洁发展机制的国际背景,通过理论分析、实地测量与室内实验,把碳汇价值与退耕农户的机会成本相结合,构建了禁伐政策下退耕林地补偿标准的动态模型;并选取黄土高原退耕的代表流域——县南沟进行实证分析,依据退耕刺槐（Robinia pseudoacacia）林特性确定退耕的一个补偿周期为37 a,退耕地补偿过程与补偿标准分为两个阶段：退耕1~17 a,通过机会成本的计算,补偿的可执行标准为1 997.26元/(hm²·a);退耕18~37 a,通过碳汇模型进行测算,补偿的可执行标准为3 692.35元/(hm²·a)。人工刺槐纯林在补偿周期之后会逐渐出现灌木层和衰败现象,因此,这一补偿期结束后,应根据林地生态群落的变化再行核算并完善其补偿标准。将碳汇价值纳入补偿体系,能促使农民为提高碳汇产量自觉增强林地管护,巩固退耕成果。     

基于免疫识别机理的危化品港区应急管理分析

完善的危化品港区应急管理体系能够有效的预防和减少事故,将风险和损失降到 最低。针对中国危化品港区应急管理现状,提出了基于生物免疫识别机理的SWOT-ANP综 合分析模型。从优势－劣势－机遇－威胁(SWOT) 4个方面对现状进行分析,确定和建立 应急管理指标体系。分别采用AHP和ANP方法对各因素之间的相互依赖和反馈关系加以比 较并分析计算。对比结果表明:虽然国家对危化品港区应急管理方面关注度有所增强, 但是仍然存在应急文化缺失,审查监管不足和预警机制不完善等问题,目前发展的最佳 战略是SO战略组合。     

边际机会成本定价──自然资源定价的理论框架

自然资源的价格应该相当于其边际机会成本。理论上，边际机会成本应该相当于利用一单位某种自然资源的全部成本。边际机会成本由三部分组成：边际生产成本、边际使用者成本和边际外部成本。边际使用者成本是指用某种方式利用一单位某一稀缺自然资源时所放弃的以其它方式利用同一个自然资源可能获取的最大纯收益。边际外部成本是利用一单位某一自然资源时给他人造成的没有得到相应补偿的损失。作为一种环境资源，环境自净能力也具有边际使用者成本。