熵法估参在环境监测数据频率分析中的应用

以最大信息熵原理为理论基础的熵法估参方法，是一种具有严格物理和数学意义的新型参数估计方法，本文针对珠江广州河段主要污染物含量长年监测数据，对比熵法与传统方法矩法对四参数Г分布的估参结果，并以频率绝对离盖和最小为准则进行判定，结果表明，熵法估参结果与矩法总体上相当接近，且大部分样本的熵法估计参数优于矩法，在环境监测数据频率分析中具有实用性和推广价值。     

房屋结构损伤及安全性评估实例分析

随着我国部分房屋建筑使用年限接近设计期限,或者说结构进入老化阶段,结构的健康状况和安全性评估逐步引起人们的关注。现代测试技术和计算机信息处理方法的结合,结构工程损伤检测方法、技术的规范化和科学化,基于时域和频域分析的结构参数辨识理论和技术、人工智能技术和专家系统也开始应用于结构健康监测和评估。简要评述了结构损伤检测方法进展和理论分析方法,并结合某体育场馆的结构安全性评估为实例,从结构设计、材料强度检测和实际结构状态进行全面检测和分析,并对其健康状况和安全性进行评估。     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.     

流体剪切与超声空化破解剩余污泥的参数优化

为提高剩余污泥的破解效果并降低能耗,采用FS（fluid shear,流体剪切）、UC（ultrasonic cavitation,超声空化）、FS和UC联合工艺（FS-UC,UC-FS）破解剩余污泥,并应用单因素试验结合响应面法对联合工艺进行优化.结果表明:FS对剩余污泥破解效果一般,只在开始阶段具有较好效果,随作用时间延长,破解效果未有显著提高甚至下降.UC对剩余污泥破解效果明显,随作用时间延长,破解效果显著提升,但能耗也随之增大,EDR（energy disintegration ratio,效能比）明显下降.相同作用时间下,UC破解效果优于FS破解效果,UC破解剩余污泥的DD_COD（degree of disintegration,破解率）与EDR均明显高于FS方法.单因素试验得出的较优FS作用时间范围为2~8 min,较优UC作用时间范围为5~15 min.响应面法试验结果显示,联合工艺的剩余污泥破解效果和能量利用率均优于单一方法,联合工艺中FS-UC工艺的破解效果优于UC-FS工艺.FS-UC工艺的最佳参数:FS处理5.6 min再UC处理15.0 min,该条件下剩余污泥实际DD_COD为50.8%,EDR为26.8%.UC-FS工艺的最佳参数:先UC作用15.0 min再FS作用7.8 min,该条件下剩余污泥实际DD_COD为36.5%,EDR为17.1%.研究显示,以DD_COD和EDR为指标,4种工艺的高效性顺序为FS-UC > UC-FS > UC > FS,其中FS-UC工艺具有能耗低、破解效率高的特点,是4种工艺中剩余污泥破解效果最好的一种工艺.      

缺失烟囱参数估算及其应用对空气质量模拟结果的改进

针对源清单中部分点源烟囱参数缺失而采用源排放模型SMOKE(Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions)默认的烟囱参数对空气质量模型模拟结果造成的不利影响,综合考虑气象观测数据、空气质量监测数据、源排放强度以及相关标准和规范对烟囱设计的要求,分别基于最大落地浓度法和基于统计方法对2009年珠三角地区源清单中缺失烟囱参数点源的烟囱参数进行了估算,并将估算烟囱参数用在WRF/SMOKE-PRD/CMAQ空气质量模型系统分析其对模型模拟的改善情况.相比于采用SMOKE默认烟囱参数,基于最大落地浓度估算烟囱参数对NO2、NOx、SO2、PM10及O3的模拟结果均具有一定改善作用,而基于统计方法估算烟囱参数仅对SO2、O3的模拟结果有所提高.结果表明,使用基于最大落地浓度法估算得到的烟囱参数更为合理,使污染物的垂直排放分配更加合理,可以应用于空气质量模型输入源清单中缺失烟囱参数点源的估算,从而一定程度上改善空气质量模型的模拟效果.     

基于可靠性统计分析法的制导弹药储存寿命评估

针对制导弹药价格昂贵而无法采用大规模性能试验和实弹射击方法进行可靠性研究的问题,采用可靠性统计分析法对制导弹药储存寿命进行评估。通过建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命模型,并以制导弹药火工品中的待发程控装置为研究对象,运用Bayes法对试验数据出现的＂倒挂＂现象进行了修正。依据修正后的试验数据进行计算,得到了在一定置信度下待发程控装置的储存寿命。     

优化城镇污水处理厂运行管理的探讨

结合城镇污水处理厂运行管理经验,探讨通过优化工艺控制、科学合理的生产调度、强化设备管理、加强安全管理和成本管理控制等措施,来实现优化城镇污水处理厂的运行管理;从而有利于污水处理厂实现安全生产、稳定达标、高效运行。通过优化和强化城镇污水处理厂运行管理,不仅有利于充分发挥污水处理厂污水治理的环境效益,在国家节能减排工作中发挥更大的作用;同时有利于污水处理厂进一步降低运行成本、开源节流,实现污水处理厂的可持续发展。     

基于排队论的城市垃圾箱最佳间距研究

针对城市垃圾箱最佳间距的研究不够精细的现状,本文通过建立排队论模型得到了可供不同城市参考的城市垃圾箱最佳间距参数表。通过对部分城市街道的垃圾箱摆放间距情况进行实地调查,运用层次分析法将影响垃圾箱间距分布的多重因素转化为单因素;建立了基于指数分布的教学模型,利用排队论分析单因素状态下的垃圾箱间距分布,得到了求解城市垃圾箱最佳间距的一般方法。