New Development in Study of the Faustmann Optimal Forest Harvesting

Chinese forest resources have become very scarce in the face of rapid economic growth demand, while the reform of collective forest right system is in full swing across the country. It will directly affect the regeneration level of forest resources and the diverse ecological value functions. In this article, the mainstream model paradigm of forest economics, that is, the basic framework of the Faustmann model and its evolution process are made in a more detailed explanation, especially the extended model in...     

基于智能优化算法的河流水质模型参数的优化简

为探索河流水质模型参数新的求解方法,根据有限的实测数据,分别应用免疫进化优化算法和免疫进化优选的捕食搜索算法,对河流水质模型计算公式中的多参数进行优化。将优化得到的计算公式用于国内外若干河流的河段中DO浓度值的拟合,并与实测结果进行了比较。结果表明,将免疫进化优化算法或免疫进化优选的捕食搜索算法优化得到的水质模型参数精度不仅较高,而且相对稳定,从而为河流水质模型参数的优化提供了一种新方法。     

一种基于最短路径的地震救援力量部署模型

针对地震救援这一非常态社会活动,在灾情信息上报及时且全面的前提下,对现有救援力量尤其是善于应对困难情况的各支专业救援队进行部署,以达到救援力量的有效利用,尤其是在讲究效率的黄金72 h中显得格外重要。在各救援点优先等级研究的基础上,建立合理的数学模型,利用图论的路径分析功能在地图上实现救援力量的合理部署。     

Techno-economic and environmental analysis of an integrated standalone hybrid solar hydrogen system to supply CCHP loads of a greenhouse in Iran

The techno-economic and environmental performance of hybrid solar hydrogen energy systems was investigated to provide combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) demands of a standalone greenhouse in Iran to achieve sustainable agriculture based on an optimization procedure. From the environmental point of view, by deploying hybrid energy systems, 83%, to 100% of emissions can be avoided. Also a sensitivity analysis was performed on the hybrid energy systems in order to study the effect of major parameter variation on the systems justification. It was concluded that hybrid solar systems are economically competitive with conventional systems, for high solar intensity locations with high diesel fuel prices and decreased prices for PV and hydrogen storage technology.     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates, often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative, a further complication may arise due to the temporal dynamics of groundwater flow, which may cause a concentration measurement to be not temporally representative. This paper presents results from a numerical modeling study focusing on temporal variations of the groundwater flow direction. “Measurements” are obtained from point information representing observation wells installed along control planes using different well frequencies and configurations. Results of the scenario simulations show that temporally variable flow conditions can lead to significant temporal fluctuations of the concentration and thus are a substantial source of uncertainty for point measurements. Temporal variation of point concentration measurements may be as high as the average concentration determined, especially near the plume fringe, even when assuming a homogeneous distribution of the hydraulic conductivity. If a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field is present, the concentration variability due to a fluctuating groundwater flow direction varies significantly within the control plane and between the different realizations. Determination of contaminant mass fluxes is also influenced by the temporal variability of the concentration measurement, especially for large spacings of the observation wells. Passive dosimeter sampling is found to be appropriate for evaluating the stationarity of contaminant plumes as well as for estimating average concentrations over time when the plume has fully developed. Representative sampling has to be performed over several periods of groundwater flow fluctuation. For the determination of mass fluxes at heterogeneous sites, however, local fluxes, which may vary considerably along a control plane, have to be accounted for. Here, dosimeter sampling in combination with time integrated local water flux measurements can improve mass flux estimates under dynamic flow conditions.     

MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

不同市场结构组合下稀土最优开采路径研究

本文从价格视角将我国稀土市场结构的变化历程划分为不同阶段,分别从理论和现实视角上探讨了在国际、国内都是完全竞争市场,国际市场垄断、国内市场完全竞争,国际市场完全竞争、国内市场垄断,国际、国内都是垄断市场条件下稀土最优开采路径及最优耗竭时间,并通过设定参数判断其相对大小关系。发现在一定的假设条件下,开采前期当国内和国际市场都是完全竞争时,稀土最优开采量是最大的;当国内和国际市场都是垄断时,稀土最优开采量是最小的;其他两种市场情况下稀土最优开采量居于中间,当国际市场是稀土的主要消费地时,国际竞争-国内垄断市场情况下稀土最优开采量大于国际垄断-国内竞争市场情况下稀土最优开采量,反之,国际垄断-国内竞争市场情况下稀土最优开采量大于国际竞争-国内垄断市场情况下稀土最优开采量。