企业重大事故应急预案编制探讨

针对企业编制预案时存在的共性问题,提出了企业预案的核心内容要求,明确了企业预案中应当包括的主要应急行动程序;采用基于应急功能分析的整体预案编制方法,提出了企业预案的基本框架,并对预案中有关报警、警报和备案等问题进行了讨论.     

中国城市综合减灾的未来学研究

本文从国内外大城市频发的事故灾害现状入手,扼要地探讨了有中国特色的2020年中国城市发展的综合减灾战略研究的框架思路,希望对国家"十一五"城市安全计划的研究制定有所借鉴和启发.     

小城镇突发公共事件应急决策系统的研究

近年来,突发公共事件的应急研究是研究热点,但对小城镇却缺少应有的关注和重视.本文剖析了当前小城镇突发公共事件应急管理存在的弊端,简要介绍了小城镇突发公共事件应急决策系统的设计与实现,包括应急预案、历史灾情库和法律法规库三大功能.着重论述了小城镇突发公共事件应急流程和预案的框架要素,并分析了应急决策系统与小城镇应急管理体制的融合机制问题.     

USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO ASSIST PARAMETER ZONATION IN GROUND WATER FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: For numerical modeling of ground water movement in a real aquifer system, the aquifer is usually divided into hydrogeologically defined zones, each with its own parameter values. The responses of the system, such as head or drawdown, are often available only in some of the zones. The estimated parameters of all the zones are based on the measured response in these limited zones. However, the estimates for some of the zones may be very uncertain, and these zones are therefore not justified by the data. In this paper, an approach is presented to understand which zone may produce uncertain parameter values and should be lumped with its neighbor. This approach is demonstrated using a regional numerical model for pumping test analysis in the Nottinghamshire aquifer, UK. A step-by-step process is used in identifying the aquifer zones and estimating their parameters based on the principle of using the smallest possible numbers of zones and parameters for adequate representation of the drawdown response. After the parameters of each zone are estimated, the sensitivity features of these parameters are examined. The results show that the parameters in one zone can be estimated properly by the drawdown in another zone only when there is significant sensitivity. For transmissivity, sensitivity between zones occurs when there is significant flow between them. For storativity, sufficient sensitivity can occur without large flows between the zones, provided that one zone causes significant drawdown in the other. This idea can be extended to the flow model for a large aquifer system. If the aquifer is divided in such a way that aquifer responses are not sensitive to the parameters in some of the zones, the parameters in those zones cannot be estimated properly and should be lumped into their neighboring zones. In this way, a simple but more reasonable model can be built.     

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in multiple objective decision making methods presented in the upcoming sequence of research papers are evaluated and compared with respect to their usefulness in addressing challenging problems in water resources management. Because many of the decision making techniques originated in the field of operational research, the historical evolution of this field is outlined and the current need for developing a wide range of techniques for employment in strategic decision making is pointed out. Informative attributes for classifying decision making techniques are given to allow a practitioner to select decision aids that can best model the key characteristics of the particular problems under study. By systematically applying a wide variety of multiple objective decision making techniques to many different kinds of water resources problems, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing these methods for assisting in making both tactical and strategic decisions in water resources management.     

REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING BY INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

Abstract: This paper describes an interactive data and model generator that is intended to bridge the gap between the water resource enginner and planner and the mathematical progrmming systems approach to regional water supply planning. The optimization objective is to minimize total annual cost with respect to capital investment and operation and maintenance costs. The matrix generator formulates the necessary hydrologic, demographic and programming problem for system optimization. The interactive program guides the user through the input and optimization segments, totally eliminates the chore of manually structuring the model matrix aides in eliminating errors, and allows use by planners without skill in mathematical programming.     

WATER RESOURCES MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION BASED ON CONSERVATION AND FLOODING POOLS1

ABSTRACT: A new and practical concept in water resources modeling and optimization is introduced. Instead of unrealistically assuming a multipurpose reservoir to be composed of a single lumped pool of water, it is treated as two different pools namely conservation and flood pools. Based on this treatment, the optimization problem is stated using the concepts of Lagrange multipliers and parameter optimization. The optimization problem consists of the material balance equation, the constraints on control and state variables and the objective function.     

STATE WATER QUALITY CONTROL PROGRAM IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: Arizona's water pollution control program is based on authorties of Arizona Revised Statutes and Public Law 92–500, the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972. The primary areas of this program are monitoring, facility inspections, plan review, planning, discharge permits and grants for the construction of publicly-owned waste water treatment facilities. The discharge permit program deals with control of point-source discharges and is administered by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. The planning and construction grants programs are administered by the State Water Quality Control Council and are implemented by the Bureau of Water Quality Control, which serves as staff to the Council. There are several challenges that face the State in this program. First is the adaptation of the “eastern law” to deal with Arizona's water quality problems. Second is to address problems caused by a long history of “laissez-faire” environmental quality management. Third is a mutual cooperation and coordination among the many entities involved in water resources management. Areas of particular interest in the State's program is the process setting water quality standards and the involvement of people of diversified backgrounds in the field of areawide planning under Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, which is primarily concerned with non-point sources of water pollution.     

EXPERIENCE WITH THE 303-208-201 STUDY RELATIONSHIPS1

ABSTRACT: The current 201 study by the Bergen County Sewer Authority illustrates possibilities for improving the currently defined relationships between 201, 208 and 303 studies. The Bergen County Sewer Authority serves 115 square miles in northeast New Jersey, providing sewerage service to 507,000 people in 43 municipalities. Its STP discharges to the Hackensack River, a tidal estuary recently classified as Water Quality Limited, and which receives significant non-plant loading. The subject 201 study is concurrent with 208 and 303 planning by NJDEP. Preliminary evaluations show that detailed 201 work can affect the conclusions of 303 and 208 studies, and that a wider (environmental - social as well as economic) interpretation of cost-effectiveness can demand re-examination of prior assumptions and decisions, a task not typically part of 208–303 work. Increased flexibility is needed in applying 303 and 208 recommendations to defining 201 studies and NPDES permit criteria, particularly in analysis of water use objectives, water quality parameters and future flows, loadings and facility costs. Further, perception of alternatives can be clarified by broadening analysis of costs and control and plant strategies. Inclusion of 201 planning at all stages of regional planning can synergistically improve the total planning process.     

A Model for Managing Irrigated Agriculture1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation in arid and semiarid regions has led to accumulation of salts, destruction of soil texture, decline in fertility and yield, and eventual abandoning of the land. The problems of irrigated agriculture may be attributed to the fact that managers seldom consider irrigated land as a system consisting of a number of components and that the individual health of each component is vital to the overall health of the entire system. A management model is described here which considers all the important components of an irrigated system and may help maintain a permanent irrigated agriculture. The model optimizes net farm income, maintains favorable hydrologic and salt balance in the irrigated system, meets the concentration requirements of the drainage water for the individual crops, and simulates the impact of the irrigation on the unsaturated and the saturated zone.