贵州省境内乌江干流水质现状分析

根据贵州省环境监测部门资料显示乌江已成为贵州省水污染程度最为严重的流域,突出的问题是总磷、氟化物超标。本文用最小二乘法模型和t检验方法对贵州省境内乌江干流2006—2013年水质状况进行分析,结果表明乌江干流总磷、氨氮、氟化物,高锰盐指数浓度变化趋式为"无趋势",乌江干流水质稳定,并提出流域污染防治的对策和建议。     

偏最小二乘回归法在非点源污染年负荷量估算中的应用

针对非点源污染数据资料稀缺,机理模型难以建立,而统计模型所需资料相对比较易于获得,计算简便直观,并且在水环境规划管理中对非点源的年负荷量预测、估算的指导意义要大于对某一时点、某一断面的负荷量的模拟预测的情况,尝试将综合了多元回归、主成分分析、典型相关分析的偏最小二乘回归法用于建立流域非点源污染年负荷量的模拟估算模型,同时运用水文分析法以淮河淮南段为例进行计算并对两种方法进行对比,分析各自优缺点及其适用范围。应用表明,水文分析法适用于一年以上的非点源污染负荷量估算而对单次或短期的估算误差较大。偏最小二乘回归法解决了多元回归时变量具有多重相关性的问题,能够在样本数量少的情况下建模,提高相关分析的精度,具有较强的解释能力。     

城市黑臭河道夏季产甲烷通量研究——以南宁市朝阳溪为例

利用静态箱法测定城市黑臭河道!南宁市朝阳溪夏季产甲烷通量,结果表明朝阳溪是重要的甲烷排放源,夏季甲烷排放通量平均值为12.2mg/(m2·h),上游、中游、下游排放通量变化不显著。利用偏最小二乘法进行相关性分析可得,甲烷通量与温度、化学需氧量、底泥有机碳呈显著正相关,与溶解氧呈显著负相关,与总氮、氨氮、总磷、pH相关性较小。     

基于PCA-LSSVM的厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA在线预测模型

采用IC厌氧废水处理系统处理人工合成废水,并利用PCA-LSSVM模型对系统出水挥发性脂肪酸(VFA)进行预测.首先利用主成分分析法(PCA)分析影响厌氧废水出水VFA浓度的多个变量的相关性并降低输入变量维数,然后用网格搜索结合10倍交叉验证优化LSSVM模型参数sig2和gam,最后利用建立的模型对实验数据进行仿真预测.仿真结果表明,稳态LSSVM模型对稳态条件下厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA具有很好的仿真预测能力,相对误差在4.72%以内,平均相对百分比误差(MAPE)为1.61%,均方根误差(RMSE)为1.08,相关系数达0.9996;稳态干扰LSSVM模型对厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA的仿真预测精度有所降低但仍然具有较好的预测能力,平均相对百分比误差(MAPE)为15.83%,均方根误差(RMSE)为15.45,相关系数为0.9984,该方法可为厌氧出水VFA在线预测和厌氧废水处理系统的优化控制提供指导.     

Forecasting energy demand of China using Bayesian Combination model

To analyze the impact of the related economic factors on China's energy demand, Path analysis is used to analyze the major factors and their direct and indirect effects on energy demand. This study showed that the main factors that affect the energy demand are the economic growth, the total population, and the primary energy structure, the economic growth is the main determining factor, and the primary energy structure is the major restrictive factor. On this basis and considering the multicollinearity and the validity of the forecast, we established a partial least-square (PLS) and the trend extrapolation prediction model, and then we sum up all the information to found a PLS—trend extrapolation combination forecasting model based on the optimized combining forecast theory. Finally, we obtain the probability distribution of the error using the Bayesian statistic theory and find the confidence interval of combining forecasting result. The results indicate that the outcome of combining forecasting will be more precise after using the Bayesian error correction approach.     

Sonocatalytic degradation of methyl orange in the presence of (nanometer and ordinary) anatase TiO2 powders

The nanometer and ordinary anatase titanium dioxide(TiO2 ) powders were adopted as the sonocatalysts for the degradation of methyl orange used as a model compound for the first time. It was found that the sonocatalytic degradation effect of methyl orange in the presence of TiO2 powder were much better than that without TiO2, but the sonocatalytic activity of the nanometer anatase TiO2 particle was obviously higher than that of ordinary anatase TiO2 particle. Although there are many factors influencing sonocatalytic degradation of methyl orange, the experimental results showed that the best degradation ratio of methyl orange could be obtained when the experimental conditions were: initial concentration 15 mg/L, nanometer anatase TiO2 adding amount 750 mg/L, ultrasonic frequency 40 kHz, output power 50 W, pH = 3.0 and temperature 40℃ within 150 min. In addition, the catalytic activity of reused nanometer anatase TiO2 catalyst was also studied and found to decline gradually comparing with initial nanometer anatase TiO2 catalyst. All experiments indicated that the method of the sonocatalytic degradation of organic pollutants in the presence of TiO2 powder was an advisable choice for non-or lowtransparent organic wastewaters.     

COMPUTER APPLICATION TO DOUBLE-MASS ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Double-mass analysis for checking consistency of a hydrological record is considered to be essential before taking it for analysis purpose. Because of increasing computer application in hydrological analyses, in the present paper, a simple and efficient method for the double-mass checking has been developed. The problem has been formulated in FORTRAN IV language and the basic steps and a computer output of the program are presented in a flow chart and a table.     

印染废水污染控制投资和运行费用函数研究

通过国内外对各类费用函数运用的情况和分析,选定幂函数C=k1Qk2＋k3Qk2·ηk4,作为函数模型来反映印染废水处理厂流量、效率与费用之间的关系。以纯棉织物和棉涤混纺印染废水处理厂41组数据作为基础数据,运用最小二乘法求出幂函数中k1、k2、k3、k4,4个参数的最优值。选用软件1stOpt（First Optimization）来对数据进行运算、检验,分别得到了纯棉印染废水、化纤印染废水的投资费用函数C1、运行费用函数C2。结论：在一定效率下,投资费用随着处理厂规模的增大而增大,但是在处理单位水量时,投资费用却随着处理厂规模的增大而降低,并且一定效率下运行费用也随着处理厂规模的增大而降低,这说明建设大型印染废水处理厂更为经济。     

稳健GM(1,1)模型及其预测应用

本文提出了稳健GM(1,1)灰色模型,并用该模型建立了山东省工业固体废物产生量数学模型,结果表明,稳健GM(1,1)模型比通常的GM(1,1)模型更具预测应用价值.     

安徽省城市建设用地变化及驱动力分析

基于安徽省17个地级市的各类土地利用变化数据,采用典型相关分析、主成分分析和偏最小二乘回归分析等方法,分析安徽省2000~2011年建设用地的数量变化、结构变化及区域差异变化,探讨城市建设用地变化的主要驱动力。研究表明:安徽省城市建设用地面积以每年5.8%的速度不断增长;安徽省城市建设用地系统结构性增强,系统从无序向有序方向发展;从安徽省各市建设用地变化的区域特征来看,各市的建设用地相对变化率差异明显,东部、中部和南部地区变化幅度较大,西部和北部建设用地变化的幅度相对较小;居民生活水平的提高与经济发展、道路设施完善是安徽省城市建设用地变化的主要驱动力。