基于CMAQ模式和自适应偏最小二乘回归法的中国地区PM2.5浓度动力-统计预报方法研究

采用CMAQ模式和自适应偏最小二乘回归法相结合的动力-统计预报方法,对2014年1—12月全国252个环境监测站的PM_(2.5)浓度逐时预报值进行了滚动订正,分析了订正前后PM_(2.5)浓度的时空变化特征,重点研究该方法在中国不同地区不同季节的适用性.结果表明:CMAQ模式预报的PM_(2.5)浓度年平均和秋冬季季节平均偏差表现为非均匀空间分布特征,即辽宁、山东部分地区、川渝地区及华中、华东、华南大部分地区预报偏高,京津冀和西部大部分地区预报偏低;订正后PM_(2.5)浓度与实测值的空间分布较一致,上述偏高和偏低地区的PM_(2.5)浓度预报误差显著减小;秋冬季PM_(2.5)浓度预报和订正偏差均大于年平均值.全国区域平均PM_(2.5)浓度实测值存在明显的季节变化特征,1—3月和11—12月较大,其他月份较小;PM_(2.5)浓度预报误差较大,多数时刻预报偏低,尤其是1—3月和11—12月偏低较明显;订正后PM_(2.5)浓度与实测值较接近,而且时间变化趋势较一致,秋冬季PM_(2.5)浓度预报和订正偏差亦明显大于春夏季.秋冬季4个重点污染区域中,京津冀地区PM_(2.5)实测浓度的区域平均值较大,川渝地区次之,长三角和珠三角地区较小;珠三角地区PM_(2.5)浓度预报和订正效果较好,川渝和长三角地区次之,京津冀地区相对较差;经滚动订正后,全年和秋冬季时段PM_(2.5)浓度订正值与实测值的相关系数均显著增加,误差显著减小,尤其是秋冬季订正效果较好.川渝地区的订正改进幅度最大,长三角和京津冀地区次之,珠三角地区较小.本文方法均适用于非污染日和污染日全国范围的PM_(2.5)预报浓度订正,两种天气过程PM_(2.5)浓度的订正效果均较好;该方法对于改进京津冀地区污染日的PM_(2.5)浓度预报更有效,其他3个地区非污染日的订正改进效果优于污染日.本文研究结果可为改进空气质量预报、重霾污染天气预警和防治提供新技术途径和科学依据.     

长期施肥对农牧交错带旱地土壤微生物多样性及群落结构的影响

为探讨长期不同施肥模式对农牧交错带旱地土壤微生物多样性和群落结构的影响,以农业农村部内蒙古耕地保育科学观测试验站的长期定位施肥试验为研究对象,选取不施肥(CK)、单施氮肥(NF)、单施化肥(CF)和有机肥+化肥配施(CFM)这4个处理,于试验开展16 a后(2019年)的马铃薯成熟期分取各处理0～10 cm和10～20 cm土层土壤,利用高通量测序技术对土壤细菌和真菌群落进行测定,以期从微生物学的角度探究农田不同施肥措施对土壤质量的影响,并通过偏最小二乘路径模型(PLS-PM)揭示了施肥模式转变中旱地土壤微生物群落演替和作物产量提升的关键环境驱动因子.结果表明：(1)CF和CFM处理均改善了土壤肥力,但后者效果明显优于前者,CFM处理土壤碱解氮、有效磷和速效钾分别提高131.9%～174.7%、 216.9%～283.3%和103.3%～109.3%,有机质和全氮也显著增加;CF处理仍保持了较高的土壤pH,而NF处理土壤pH显著降低,对土壤肥力的提升效果微弱.(2)与CK相比,NF处理显著降低了土壤细菌的Chao1和Shannon指数,CFM处理显著增加了细菌的物种丰富度、 Chao1...     

基于SSA-MGF的偏最小二乘回归神经网络的预报模型

本文采用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA）方法对原始降水序列重构,并用均生函数（Mean Generating Function, MGF）方法对重构系列构造延拓矩阵,以此作为自变量,原始降水序列作为因变量, 再利用偏最小二乘法提取对因变量影响强的成分作为神经网络的输入因子,原始序列作为输出因子,建立神经网络预测模型.通过对广西全区6月份降水量进行实际建模并与其它方法进行对比预测试验,结果表明,基于SSA-MGF的偏最小二乘回归神经网络预测模型较好,是一种具有较高应用价值的预测方法.     

基于改进的最小二乘法瓦斯涌出量预测

通过对基于绝对误差最小的传统最小二乘法与在此基础上考虑相对误差的改进最小二乘法的比较,得知改进的最小二乘法预测更为准确。现场应用于鹤壁四矿的相对瓦斯涌出量随深度变化的预测,建立了瓦斯涌出量预测模型,通过预测值与实际值比较,证明改进的最小二乘法预测鹤壁四矿瓦斯涌出量是可行的、有效的,对指导煤矿安全生产具有重要意义。     

珠江三角洲城市群三维生态足迹动态变化及驱动力分析

以自然资本利用的存量、流量分类测度的三维生态足迹方法是区域可持续发展能力评估的最新方法论进展.以珠江三角洲城市群9个地市23年的面板数据为数据源,在测度自然资本利用状况时空变化基础上,利用偏最小二乘法进行驱动力分析.研究表明:1珠江三角洲23年间生态足迹呈递增趋势,生态赤字加剧,自身的可持续发展能力较弱;2珠三角自然资本存量占用呈递增趋势;流量资本消耗呈递减趋势,表明过度消耗存量资本换取发展,区域自然资本流动所受的限制较多;3食品消费结构变化、化石能源消费总量增加以及城市扩张带来的土地利用变化,是生态足迹结构变化的主要成因;4人口规模、社会经济差异和政策因素是区域自然资本利用动态变化特征差异的3个主导因素,科技因素和自然环境因素对研究区自然资本利用变化的影响程度不显著.     

大气二氧化硫污染预测模型初探

考虑了影响大气扩散的主要气象因素及其它因素,提出了一个大气SO_2污染预测模型,并运用加权实时最小二乘算法对模型进行实时辨识。这一模型尤其适用于城市及城市中SO_2日均浓度的分区预测,给出了该模型在上海地区应用的结果。     

含水量对红粘土抗剪强度的影响

红粘土是一种区域性特殊土,含水量对其抗剪强度的影响与一般粘性土的规律不尽相同。通过室内直剪试验研究发现,含水量与红粘土粘聚力存在阶梯状相关关系,并且根据最小二乘法原理可以将其拟舍为多项式函数表达式。另外,随着含水量的增加,红粘土的内摩擦角变化不显著,呈微幅度波动状态。     

Development of an empirical equation for the transverse dispersion coefficient in natural streams

In this study, a new empirical equation for the transverse dispersion coefficient has been developed based on the hydraulic and geometric parameters in natural streams using a regression technique. First, a total of 32 data sets in 16 streams were collected. Among those sets, 16 sets were used for deriving the new equation, and the other 16 sets were used for verifying the equation. Then, through dimensional analysis, it was found that the normalized transverse dispersion coefficient is associated with several parameters such as sinuosity, aspect ratio, and a friction term. The robust least square method was applied to estimate regression coefficients. The newly proposed equation was proven to be superior in explaining the dispersion characteristics of natural streams more precisely compared to the existing equations.     

Verifying an Extinction Debt among Lichens and Fungi in Northern Swedish Boreal Forests

Abstract:  Destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats results in small species populations that face increased risk of extinction. A time delay may be involved in the regional extinction of species, and the number of species that eventually may go extinct in the future is called the "extinction debt." In boreal Sweden, we examined whether the number of epiphytic crustose lichens and wood-inhabiting fungi in old-growth forest remnants diverges from species richness levels in forest patches that have been naturally isolated for millennia. An excess of species in forest remnants could indicate the presence of an extinction debt. Observed species richness in 32 old-growth forest remnants (also called woodland key habitats [WKHs]) was compared with predicted species richness. To predict species richness we used regression models based on data from 46 isolated old-growth forest patches in a forest-wetland matrix. The reference landscape is ancient and assumed to reflect the conditions of insular floras in dynamic equilibrium. Stand factors constituted predictive variables in the models. The observed number of lichen species was higher than expected (i.e., an extinction debt among lichens may exist). By contrast, there was no significant difference between observed and expected species richness among wood-inhabiting fungi. The species richness of wood-inhabiting fungi has adjusted to the changes in forest and landscape structure more rapidly than the species richness of lichens. Differences in substrate dynamics between epiphytes on living trees and species growing on decaying logs might explain the difference between species groups. The results also indicate that population densities of red-listed species were low, which may result in continuing extinctions of red-listed species. The importance of WKHs might be overvalued because species may be lost if conservation efforts consider only protection and preservation of WKHs.     

GENERALIZED LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY RELATIONSHIPS FOR UNGAGED SITES IN MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: Regional hydrologic procedures such as generalized least squares regression and streamflow record augmentation have been advocated for obtaining estimates of both flood-flow and low-flow statistics at ungaged sites. While such procedures are extremely useful in regional flood-flow studies, no evaluation of their merit in regional low-flow estimation has been made using actual streamflow data. This study develops generalized regional regression equations for estimating the d-day, T-year low-flow discharge, Q_{d, t}, at ungaged sites in Massachusetts where d = 3, 7, 14, and 30 days. A two-parameter lognormal distribution is fit to sequences of annual minimum d-day low-flows and the estimated parameters of the lognormal distribution are then related to two drainage basin characteristics: drainage area and relief. The resulting models are general, simple to use, and about as precise as most previous models that only provide estimates of a single statistic such as Q_7,10. Comparisons are provided of the impact of using ordinary least squares regression, generalized least squares regression, and streamflow record augmentation procedures to fit regional low-flow frequency models in Massachusetts.