加速度均方根地震动统计研究

根据美国加州等地的强震记录,采用回归分析方法研究了加速度记录水平、竖向分量的峰值加速度(PGA)和一定时间窗内加速度均方根(SRSTM S)的衰减规律。所采用的加速度记录共795组(两水平向与一竖向)2 385条。对作为地震危险性分析的主要参数PGA的衰减规律与SRSTM S的衰减规律作了详细的研究,结果表明,SRSTM S的离散性明显的小于PGA,因此建议将SRSTM S的衰减关系应用于地震动强度的危险性分析。     

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

基于最小二乘法的高抽巷CO浓度变化规律分析

我国许多煤矿的煤层同时具有高瓦斯和严重自燃倾向,在抽放瓦斯的同时,容易造成采空区遗煤自燃。因此,监测采空区指标气体的浓度变化对预防采空区自燃非常重要。本文采用最小二乘法对山西阳煤五矿8403工作面高抽巷CO浓度进行分析,拟合得出了高抽巷CO浓度变化曲线,并对拟合方法、拟合效果进行了分析。结果表明,用最小二乘法进行拟合是可行、有效的。结合现场实际条件,分析了高抽巷CO浓度偏高的原因和之所以选取分析高抽巷CO浓度来预测采空区自燃的原因。结果显示,分析高抽巷CO浓度变化可以较早地发现采空区自燃。最后,分析了CO浓度与CO2、O2浓度的相关性,验证了用CO浓度预测采空区自燃的准确性。     

中国火灾最佳灰色回归组合预测模型

火灾现象具有随机性、模糊性,是个复杂的灰色系统行为。研究火灾发生的规律及发展趋势,具有实用价值。笔者给出最小二乘估计意义下的最佳组合预测模型的定义,并求得其权的公式和证明权的惟一性;用回归分析方法建立多个回归模型,并按3条标准即①回归指数大、②系统误差小、③模型精度高,选定最佳非线性回归模型;用灰色理论建立多个灰色模型,并按3条标准即①后验差比值小、②小误差概率大、③预测关联度大,选定最佳灰色模型;再将最佳回归模型与最佳灰色模型有机地结合起来建立中国火灾最佳灰色回归组合预测模型。组合预测模型综合利用前两者提供的不同的有用信息,改善了单一模型的局限性,提高了预测精度,减少了预测误差。组合模型预测中国年火灾起数处于动态增长过程。     

Research on an Online Identification Algorithm for a Thevenin Battery Model by an Experimental Approach

To improve the estimation accuracy of battery’s inner state for battery management system, an online parameters identification algorithm for Thevenin battery model is researched. The Thevenin model and parameters identification algorithm based on recursive least square adaptive filter algorithm was built with the Simulink/xPC Target. The results of hardware-in-loop experiment, which uses Federal Urban Driving Schedule test to verify the parameters identification approach, show the proposed approach can accurately identify the model parameters within 1% maximum terminal voltage estimation error, and the State of Charge error which calculated by the open circuit voltage estimates can be efficiently reduced to 4%.     

基于四阶B-样条最小二乘法的油气管道凹痕缺陷应变计算方法

针对油气管道上的凹痕缺陷,ASME B31.8提出采用基于应变的评价方法,但在内检测数据到应变求解的过程中,缺少噪声消除和轮廓拟合的相关方法。提出了采用四阶B-样条最小二乘拟合算法将检测数据进行噪声消除和轮廓拟合,实现从含有噪声的检测数据到应变求解的应变评价方法。采用文中所提方法和有限元方法,详细计算了几种典型凹痕的轴向弯曲应变、环向弯曲应变及其总应变。对比结果表明,该方法不仅能够较为精确的计算出弯曲应变值,还能得到较准确的弯曲应变分布情况。环向弯曲应变受在线检测工具精度的限制存在一定误差。计算发现,现有标准中忽略了环向薄膜应变分量,这使得总应变的计算结果不够准确。     

Kullback-Leibler distance-based enhanced detection of incipient anomalies

Accurate and effective anomaly detection and diagnosis of modern engineering systems by monitoring processes ensure reliability and safety of a product while maintaining desired quality. In this paper, an innovative method based on Kullback-Leibler divergence for detecting incipient anomalies in highly correlated multivariate data is presented. We use a partial least square (PLS) method as a modeling framework and a symmetrized Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD) as an anomaly indicator, where it is used to quantify the dissimilarity between current PLS-based residual and reference probability distributions obtained using fault-free data. Furthermore, this paper reports the development of two monitoring charts based on the KLD. The first approach is a KLD-Shewhart chart, where the Shewhart monitoring chart with a three sigma rule is used to monitor the KLD of the response variables residuals from the PLS model. The second approach integrates the KLD statistic into the exponentially weighted moving average monitoring chart. The performance of the PLS-based KLD anomaly-detection methods is illustrated and compared to that of conventional PLS-based anomaly detection methods. Using synthetic data and simulated distillation column data, we demonstrate the greater sensitivity and effectiveness of the developed method over the conventional PLS-based methods, especially when data are highly correlated and small anomalies are of interest. Results indicate that the proposed chart is a very promising KLD-based method because KLD-based charts are, in practice, designed to detect small shifts in process parameters.     

土地利用对典型喀斯特河流溶解性有机质的直接和间接影响

土地利用可向河流直接输送陆源有机质直接影响河流溶解性有机质（DOM）丰度,也可通过增强河流营养负荷间接加强DOM的本地生产.研究基于紫外-可见光吸收光谱（UV-VIS）和三维荧光-平行因子分析（EEM-PARAFAC）技术研究雨季（7月）芙蓉江河流DOM组分特征和空间分布,并采用相关分析和偏最小二乘路径模型（PLS-PM）辨析和量化多尺度下土地利用对DOM的直接和间接影响.结果表明,土地利用对DOM的直接影响普遍强于间接影响.不同DOM组分对水体营养状况和土地利用的响应各异,溶解性有机碳（DOC）和有色溶解性有机质（CDOM）更易受水体营养状况影响,荧光溶解性有机质（FDOM）则对土地利用更为敏感.土地利用对DOC和CDOM的直接影响强度随空间尺度略有波动,但总影响强度无明显的空间尺度差异,对FDOM的直接影响强度在河段500 m缓冲区尺度最大,且随尺度增大而降低.旱地、城镇用地、其它建设用地、斑块密度（PD）、边缘密度（ED）和香农多样性指数（SHDI）为增加河流DOM丰度的典型土地利用指标,水田、灌木林、最大斑块指数（LPI）和聚合度指数（AI）为有效减少DOM丰度的典型土地利用指标.总氮（TN）、硝态氮（NO₃^--N）和溶解性总磷（DTP）与土地利用和DOM密切相关,即氮、磷元素在"土地利用-河流DOM"中有着重要的"中介"作用.FDOM可作为衡量近河段土地利用直接向河流输入陆源有机质强弱的指示参数.     

Photolysis of mono- through deca-chlorinated biphenyls by ultraviolet irradiation in n-hexane and quantitative structure-property relationship analysis

The photolysis of 16 polychlorinated biphenyls （PCBs） （including mono- through deca-chlorinated） in n-hexane was investigated under ultraviolet irradiation using a 500-W high-pressure mercury lamp. Photolysis of PCBs follows pseudo-first-order reaction kinetics, with photolysis rate constants ranging between 0.0011 s^-1 for PCB-52 and 0.0574 s^-1 for PCB-118. The degradation rates of PCBs by high-pressure mercury lamp irradiation were remarkably independent with respect to the degree of chlorination. Furthermore, partial least squares （PLS） models were developed to provide insight into which aspect of the molecular structure influenced PCB photolysis rate constants. It was found that the photolysis rates of PCBs increased with an increase in the net charge on the carbon atom （qc）, （ELUMO-EHOMO）^2, and the Y-axis dipole moment （μy） values, or the decrease in the energy of the second highest occupied molecular orbital （EHOMO-1）, energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital （ELUMO）, ELUMO ＋ EHOMO, ELUMO - EHOMO, most positive atomic charge （q^＋）, and the twist angle of the chlorine atom （TA） values.     

基于BP神经网络的Falcon分选电子废弃物预测模型

Falcon分选电子废弃物的影响因素主要有水压、转动频率、入料浓度,为了进一步研究影响因素与分选效果的关系,文章利用Design-Expert 7.1软件设计出三因素三水平的实验条件,利用Falcon分选得出数据。将实验数据和BP神经网络相结合,将影响因素作为神经网络的输入,品位和产率作为输出,经过BP训练后得到输入与输出的关系。对实验影响因素与分选效果的关系进行分析,结果与实际情况比较吻合。运用MATLAB实现BP神经网络仿真,仿真结果与最小二乘法下的结果相比较误差较小,输出向量与实际实验结果接近。