Fertility Intentions and Risk Management: Exploring the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe During Transition

Between 1985 and 1995, fertility in Eastern Europe declined from 2.2 children per woman to merely 1.5 on region-average. Previous research has emphasized mainly the economic turmoil during transition or the influx of new ideas regarding fertility and family relations. This article suggests that applying a risk management perspective on fertility patterns may put additional light on the reasons behind the fertility decline in post-communist Europe. The complexity of modern social systems has made people increasingly dependent on the state for risk evaluation and risk management. The article formulates the hypothesis that transition itself disrupted the mental models that helped people to navigate among the risks associated to having and raising children. Left to their own devices, women in Eastern Europe became more inclined to postpone childbirth or discard this option altogether.     

改进YOLOv3的复杂施工环境下安全帽佩戴检测算法

为解决施工场所环境复杂导致的智能监控下安全帽佩戴检测准确率低及漏检等问题,提出一种改进YOLOv3的安全帽佩戴检测算法。采用Focal Loss专注困难正样本训练,提高模型在复杂环境下的鲁棒性;在原始网络基础上使用空间金字塔多级池化融合局部与整体特征,提高多尺度检测能力;引入注意力机制,将通道和空间注意力模块分别集成到YOLOv3的主干网络和检测层的残差结构中,使模型专注于安全帽特征学习;使用GIoU提高定位准确率,在复杂施工环境不同视觉条件下验证算法的有效性。结果表明:改进模型的平均精度达到88%,较原始模型提高13.3%,其中person及helmet的精度分别提高17.2%、9.5%,召回率分别提高15.3%、7.6%。     

Basic hydrologic studies for assessing impacts of flow diversions on riparian vegetation: Examples from streams of the eastern Sierra Nevada,California, USA

As the number of proposals to divert streamflow for power production has increased in recent years, interest has grown in predicting the impacts of flow reductions on riparian vegetation. Because the extent and density of riparian vegetation depend largely on local geomorphic and hydrologic setting, site-specific geomorphic and hydrologic information is needed. This article describes methods for collecting relevant hydrologic data, and reports the results of such studies on seven stream reaches proposed for hydroelectric development in the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. The methods described are: (a) preparing geomorphic maps from aerial photographs, (b) using well level records to evaluate the influence of streamflow on the riparian water table, (c) taking synoptic flow measurements to identify gaining and losing reaches, and (d) analyzing flow records from an upstream-downstream pair of gages to document seasonal variations in downstream flow losses. In the eastern Sierra Nevada, the geomorphic influences on hydrology and riparian vegetation were pronounced. For example, in a large, U-shaped glacial valley, the width of the riparian strip was highly variable along the study reach and was related to geomorphic controls, whereas the study reaches on alluvial fan deposits had relatively uniform geomorphology and riparian strip width. Flow losses of 20% were typical over reaches on alluvial fans. In a mountain valley, however, one stream gained up to 275% from geomorphically controlled groundwater contributions.     

依靠科技进步，实现跨越式发展

结合西部地区的科技现状,分析了科技创新的内在要求,探讨了实现跨越式发展的途径和对策。     

Forest Dynamics in the Eastern Ghats of Tamil Nadu,India

The primary deciduous forests in the Eastern Ghats (EG) of Tamil Nadu (TN) India have undergone many changes owing to various need-based forest managements, such as timber extraction for industry, railway sleepers, charcoal, and forest clearance for hydroelectric projects and agriculture, during preindependence and postindependence periods (i.e., from 1800 to 1980). The enactment of a forest conservation act during the 1980s changed the perception of forest managers from utilization to conservation. This study was taken up to assess the forests dynamics in the EG of TN spatially between 1990 and 2003 and nonspatially between 1900 and the 1980s. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS) 1D Linear Imaging and Self Scanning (LISS III) data were used to assess forests during 1990 and 2003, respectively. Field floristic survey and secondary data (such as published literature, floras, books, and forest working plans) were used to assess the forest dynamics in terms of forest type and species composition among the preindependence period, the postindependence period, and the present (i.e., before and after 1980). The satellite data analysis revealed a considerable amount of changes in all forest types during the 13 years. The comparison of species composition and forest types between the past and present revealed that need-based forest management along with anthropogenic activity have altered the primary deciduous forest in to secondary and postextraction secondary forests such as southern thorn and southern thorn scrub forests in the middle [400–900 m above mean sea level (MSL)] and lower slopes (<400 m MSL). However, the evergreen forests present at the upper slope (>900 m MSL) and plateau seemed not to be much affected by the forest management. The changes estimated by the satellite data processing in the major forest types such as evergreen, deciduous, southern thorn, and southern thorn scrub are really alarming because these changes have occurred after the implementation of a forest conservation act. The dependence of local people on forests for various purposes in this region is also considerably high, which might be a key factor for the changes in the forests. The results of this study not only provide an outlook on the present status of the forests and the change trends but also provide the basis for further studies on forests in the EG of TN.     

河西走廊星火产业带城市生态经济联系强度测算

随着社会经济发展和市场化、全球化的推进,城市在区域发展中的地位和作用日益加强,区域内部与区域之间生态经济联系更加密切与复杂。基于改进的万有引力模型,将城市生态系统服务价值引入区域生态经济联系系统,测算了河西走廊星火产业带城市间生态经济联系强度及隶属度。结果表明,产业带城市生态经济联系强度整体偏低,两极分化显著。     

Hedgerows and hedgerow networks in landscape ecology

Hedgerows originated and coexist with agriculture. Their internal structure and species diversity vary widely with origin (planted, spontaneous, or remnant), farming practices in adjacent fields, and the refined art of hedgerow management. Most hedgerow species are forest-edge species, and apparently none is limited to hedgerows. Wide hedgerows composed of trees and shrubs appear to function as corridors for movement of many plants and animals across a landscape. The reduction of crop loss, by dampening pest population fluctuations with hedgerow predators, remains a hypothesis for study.Field microclimate downwind of a hedgerow is modified about 16 times the hedgerow height (h) for evaporation, and approximately 28 h for wind speed. A turbulent wind pattern with harsher microclimate is present at 6–8 h if a second hedgerow is nearby downwind. Zones of higher crop productivity at 3- to 6-h downwind, and 2- to 6-h upwind of a second hedgerow may be expected. Overall, we expect little short-term difference in farm-field production with or without hedgerows.Evidence suggests that hedgerow networks, and especially their mesh size (of fields), exert a major control on many major landscape fluxes. Such fluxes include animal populations, wind speed, evapotranspiration and soil desiccation, soil erosion and nutrient runoff, species movement along network lines, and movement of field species across the network. In a relatively short period, the hedgerow ecosystem, with no unique species, has attained a metastable equilibrium, which is regulated by enormous human inputs.More than 20 economic roles of hedgerows are pinpointed. The roles, providing resources and protection of resources, are poorly known quantitatively. We conclude that hedgerows perform diverse functions for society and the farmer that are both economically and ecologically significant.