煤层底板采动导水破坏深度计算的神经网络方法

在综合分析影响煤层底板采动导水破坏深度因素的基础上 ,应用人工神经网络方法 ,建立了底板破坏深度的计算模型。该模型利用现场观测资料作为学习训练样本和测试样本 ,对模型的测算结果、理论计算值和实测值进行了对比分析。结果表明 :用神经网络方法计算底板破坏深度考虑的因素更加全面 ,结果更接近于实际。笔者研究的计算模型和测算方法 ,为承压水上安全采煤决策提供了科学依据。     

煤矿本质安全特征及管理方法研究

分析国内煤矿本质安全管理研究现状及存在问题,进一步讨论煤矿本质安全的内涵。探讨近年来我国煤矿事故发生的致因与根源,指出人的行为安全是我国煤矿本质安全的主要特征。通过研究我国煤矿事故的控制管理,选择事故率作为我国煤矿本质安全判别的参考标准;分析我国煤矿生产的现状与差异,提出了对我国煤矿的本质安全性进行分类判别的思想;从深入开展煤矿安全管理理论研究、加强煤矿安全管理立法、建立煤矿安全管理标准和有效组织机制等方面提出了实现煤矿本质安全的管理策略。     

论我国非煤矿山安全生产标准体系构建思路

本文分析了我国目前非煤矿山安全生产标准体系建设的现状及存在的主要问题,阐述了建立一套科学、合理、完善的标准化体系对我国非煤矿山安全生产行业的重要意义;并根据非煤矿山安全生产标准体系建设的现状提出了我国非煤矿山安全生产标准体系建设的思路和基本框架,为今后非煤矿山安全生产标准体系建设提供一定基础。     

Assessing audit impact and thoroughness of VCS forest carbon offset projects

Voluntary markets transacted over $66 million USD of forest carbon offsets in 2016, according to Forest Trends, and over 99% of those offset projects were audited to a standard, primarily the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). We provide a table characterizing all 70 validated and verified forest carbon projects employing the VCS version 3.0 currently-in-use (December 2011–July 2017). We also examine two separate aspects of the audit process––impact and thoroughness––to assess the effectiveness of the costly audit process, which can consume up to one-third of offset revenue. Audit impact we measure in terms of reduction in the number of offsets from ex ante estimated to ex post approved. Audit thoroughness we measure both directly in terms of the number of auditor hours worked per project and also indirectly in terms of the total number of Corrective Action Requests (CARs)/Non-Conformity Reports (NCRs) auditors prescribe. In terms of impact, we find that Afforestation/Reforestation/Restoration (A/R/R) and Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects, though only constituting 5% of total verified offsets, demonstrate significant (p < = 0.05) reductions from ex ante estimated to ex post approved offsets, likely because auditors can easily scrutinize carbon stocks/emission factors for the commercial tree species involved in these project types. In terms of thoroughness, we find that higher ex ante estimates correlate with more total auditor hours worked and total CARs/NCRs prescribed for three of four project activity types, likely because auditors perceive larger ex ante projects as higher risk. We conclude with recommendations for the VCS to empower auditors to scrutinize carbon stocks/emissions factors from avoided deforestation projects, and also to continue to flag high ex ante projects as higher risk.     

Which “fairness”, for whom,and why? An empirical analysis of plural notions of fairness in Fairtrade Carbon Projects,using Q methodology

Fairness is a relative concept with multiple, subjective and competing notions of what it is, how to achieve it, and for which beneficiaries. Fairtrade International's collaborative efforts to develop a standard to certify Fairtrade Carbon Credits (FCCs) brought together multiple stakeholders in a deliberative context. This paper uses Q methodology to empirically assess the notions of fairness this wider consultation group held. Three distinct ‘factors’ (or perspectives) are identified, and discussed in relation to a multi-dimensional framework for exploring fairness. The first factor prioritises development delivered through organisations, participation in decision-making and use of minimum prices to adjust trade imbalances. The second factor conceptualises a non-exclusive approach maximising generation and sales of FCCs, involving a commodity chain where everyone performs their optimum function with financial transparency and information-sharing to facilitate negotiations. The third factor involves minimising intervention, allowing carbon commodity chains and project set-ups to function efficiently, and make their own adjustments to enhance benefits access and quality received by beneficiaries. The three factors reflect debates within carbon and fair trade spheres about who should be playing which roles, who should be accessing which benefits, and how people should be supported to interact on an uneven playing field. Communicating findings to standards organisations enables a more open and inclusive policy process. Our research provides a critical reflection on these plural notions of fairness, identifying areas of (dis)agreement within the FCC dialogue, and provides a wider, yet manageable, set of inputs for supporting the FCC process during its inception and subsequent implementation. Clearer definitions of “fairness” are also useful for standards organisations in reviewing ex post whether “fairness” goals have been met.     

Hive over Hbase框架查询性能研究

通过Hive与Hbase两者本身对外的API接口互相进行通信,搭建了一个Hive over Hbase的整合框架方案。实验证明,基于"Hbase存储入口+Hive查询入口"的Hive over Hbase框架比Hive或Hbase原生访问具有更高效的数据库查询速度,且随着数据量的增加,查询性能更加明显。     

基于余震序列分布信息的地震极灾区快速判断方法研究

利用震级加权标准差椭圆法研究了基于震后短期内(24 h)余震序列判定地震极灾区的方法,研究结果表明:1利用该方法判断宏观震中是一种比较可行的方法,不同震源破裂方式的震例利用该方法判断宏观震中的精度不同,倾滑-近倾滑型破裂方式的震例利用余震序列判定宏观震中的精度最高;2整体上看,利用该方法判断极灾区长轴方向的准确性低于利用距震中最近活动断裂判断的准确性,但对于倾滑-近倾滑型破裂方式的震例,利用该方法的准确性高于利用断层数据判定的准确性。     

基于ERA-Interim资料分析青藏高原“湿池”变化特征

论文利用ERA-Interim(0.5°×0.5°,简称ERA)、NCEP/NCAR2(2.5°×2.5°,简称NCEP2)两种不同分辨率的再分析资料和探空观测资料,首先分析了夏季(7月)和冬季(1月)青藏高原(以下简称高原)上大气水汽含量大值区(简称"湿池")的区域分布特征,然后基于ERA资料分析了1979—2012年间高原"湿池"的一些变化特征,发现了一些新的事实。主要结果包括:在对流层中上层,高原上无论夏、冬季都有大气水汽含量的高值中心——高原"湿池"存在。夏季7月高原"湿池"强度最强,ERA资料除了在高原南部有自西到东的连续高湿中心带外,在高原西北部还有一个高湿中心;NCEP2资料仅在高原东南部和西南部有两个高湿中心。冬季1月,两种资料均只在高原东南部有高湿中心。总体上,ERA资料与探空观测资料的高湿中心区更为接近。7月,高原南部高湿中心在1990年代中期(1994—1996年)之后持续偏强,西北部中心强度有弱—强—弱—强交替变化特征;1月,高湿中心在1980年代末期开始持续偏强。高原南部高湿中心带在7月几乎是一个连续的区域,1996年以后这一特征更为明显,在1月则是分为东西两段的高湿中心带。     

三峡水库水动力分区及总磷标准研究

采用EFDC模型计算2010~2018年三峡水库流域水龄.结果表明,三峡水库水龄由上游库尾至下游库首愈来愈大,尤其坝前水龄高达100余天,湖泊属性增强,坝前支流受库区影响大,大坝调度对水龄影响较大,高水位运行期水龄将增长至2~4倍.基于水龄空间分布将三峡水库及其17条主要支流划分为河流型、河湖过渡型和湖泊型.水龄影响因素定量分析表明,水龄与水位呈正相关,与流量呈负相关,泄水期变化速率较蓄水期明显,单位流量与水位内水龄变化幅度高达6~7d,变化区间介于30~100d之间.最后,提出基于水龄权重法的河湖过渡区总磷评价标准,该标准可揭示库区水体总磷的时空变化特征.     

中国公众环境意识的时空差异及影响因素分析

建设生态文明是中华民族永续发展的千年大计,引导和培育公众牢固树立环境保护意识是构建生态环境治理全民行动体系的根本保障。本文以2003年和2013年中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据为基础,评估了全国28个省（市、自治区）（不含新疆、西藏、海南及港澳台地区）的公众环境意识,综合运用空间自相关分析、标准差椭圆分析和空间计量模型等方法,揭示了中国公众环境意识的时空差异特征,甄别了主要影响因素及其作用。结果表明：（1）2003—2013年中国公众环境意识水平基本维持不变,环境付费能力大幅下降,但公众对环境意识的关注程度有所提高;（2）中国公众环境意识的总体空间演化形态表现为整体分布规模略微缩小,省域公众环境意识空间差异显著,中西部地区环境意识有所增强,东部地区公众环境意识处于较高水平;（3）公众环境意识水平存在显著的空间正相关性,空间集聚程度不断加剧;空间局部特征以高—高型和低—低型最为显著,各省份空间相似度较高;（4）人口密度、工业污染治理投资、教育经费投入、地区环境污染程度及地区城市设施水平等因素均对公众环境意识产生显著影响。