A methodology to clarify logical relationship among failure modes and determine system probabilities

In the vulnerability analysis, correlations among failure modes have significant effects on the estimation of failure probabilities. However, the failure modes were assumed to be independent with each other or only parts of dependencies of failure modes were considered, which might lead to inaccurate results. In the present study, a novel methodology to clarify the entire logical relationship among failure modes and determine system probabilities is developed. Firstly, based on the form-changed limit state equations (LSEs) of failure modes, the LSE surfaces or curves are plotted. Subsequently, the logical relationship among failure modes can be identified with the LSE surfaces or curves. The system consequences are further developed by the logical relationship. Bayesian network (BN) is constructed with the input of logical relationship into arcs. With BN considering logical relationship, the occurrence probabilities of failure modes are calculated and system probabilities are estimated more accurately, which are verified well with Monte Carlo simulation and analytical solution. Furthermore, the detailed compositions of occurrence probabilities of failure modes are specified by the system probabilities. The methodology is illustrated by a case study. This study can be applied to the vulnerability analysis of various hazards or disasters as long as LSEs for corresponding failure modes can be developed.     

自然条件下海滨湿地土壤生态过程与景观演变的耦合关系

景观过程与格局的相互关系与耦合机制,已经成为景观生态学研究的重要问题。以盐城国家级自然保护区核心区为案例,根据2011年4-5月对海滨湿地土壤采样分析,运用典范对应分析、主成分分析、线性回归模拟以及空间代替时间的方法,探索土壤生态过程与景观演变之间的耦合关系。结果显示:①典范对应分析表明,土壤过程能够很好地响应海滨湿地景观格局,从陆到海,5种景观类型有序地、按逆时针方向分布在CCA排序轴上,土壤过程与景观类型之间表现出不同的相关性。②通过主成分分析表明,三个主成分能够有效地响应景观格局。主成分与景观类型相关性排序表现为:第一主成分(土壤养分),米草沼泽>碱蓬米草交错带>碱蓬沼泽>芦苇沼泽>碱蓬芦苇交错带;第二主成分(盐度),碱蓬沼泽>碱蓬米草交错带>米草沼泽>碱蓬芦苇交错带>芦苇沼泽;第三主成分(有机质和水分),芦苇沼泽>米草沼泽>碱蓬芦苇交错带>碱蓬米草交错带>碱蓬沼泽。③运用空间代替时间,以样地到海堤的距离作为时间变量,主成分与景观演变之间相关性较好。多元回归结果显示:三个主成分与碱蓬沼泽→碱蓬米草交错带→米草沼泽时间序列的相关系数为0.859 2;与碱蓬沼泽→碱蓬芦苇交错带→芦苇沼泽时间序列的相关系数为0.892 8。土壤生态过程的改变是景观演变的重要动力,而景观的变化进一步引起土壤生态要素的改变,盐城海滨湿地景观演变就是在这种格局与过程的交互作用下,芦苇沼泽与米草沼泽不断扩张、碱蓬沼泽不断萎缩的过程。     

As污染区农民头发中As含量与环境中As含量的关系

为研究As污染区农民头发中As含量与环境中As含量的关系,采用分层整群随机抽样方式,抽取湖北省气型和污灌型As污染区6个村农民头发样660份,同时采集这6个村的饮用水、土壤、食物(大米、小麦、蔬菜、鸡蛋、鸡肉、猪肉)样品,用原子荧光光谱法测定As含量.研究结果表明,两种类型As污染区农民头发中As含量污染区明显高于对照区,农民头发中As含量有随着区域土壤和食品中As含量增高而相应增高的趋势.对不同年龄组研究表明,高龄组头发中砷含量最高,反映出人体慢性暴露As蓄积的现象,而污染区人群男女头发中As含量差异不显著.人发中As含量与饮水中As含量无显著相关性,而与土壤和主要食物(大米、小麦)中As含量有显著正相关.因此人发中As含量作为人体长期暴露生物标记物,可以反映区域环境污染的程度.     

密度泛函方法预测二英类化合物(PCDD/Fs)的正辛醇/水分配系数

在B3LYP/6-31G水平上全优化计算了多氯代二苯并一对-二(噁)英和多氯代二苯并呋喃(PCDD/Fs)系列物的分子结构;基于得到的分子结构描述符,依据修正的线性溶解能理论,分别建立了PCDDs和PCDFs的正辛醇/水分配系数的定量结构-性质关系模型(R2分别为0.985和0.966),并用交叉验证法对模型进行了验证(q2分别为0.983和0.936),用t-检验对各变量进行了检验.检验结果表明,模型的预测能力优于AM1法、单苯环氯取代指数法和拓扑量子方法得出的模型.     

论区际环境关系及其调控

区际环境关系是环境科学理论和实践研究的重要课题，随着生产力的发展，环境作为一种烯缺资源纳入人类的经济生活和社会生活中，由于存在局部环境利益的差异，不同区域的环境利益主体在追求利益最大化的驱动下，势必把环境成本转嫁与其他区域，这就促使原始的纯粹的区际自然关系发生深刻变化，新的区际环境关系发育和建立，文章认为，区际环境关系受社会经济诸多因素的影响，应从经济，法律和行政等多方面着手调控区际环境关系，建立科学，合理，公平的区际环境协作关系，以实现环境资源的集约化使用和生态环境问题的系统整治。     

河套地区农牧交错带灌丛沙堆消亡现象与农业活动关系初探

灌丛沙堆作为一种典型的风积地貌,其形成与演化过程受到学界的普遍关注。在我国北方河套地区,灌丛沙堆广泛分布于库布齐沙漠和毛乌素沙地边缘,其发展与区域农业活动联系紧密。本文选取河套地区灌丛沙堆集中分布的红旗一社和红眼沙样点,基于近年遥感影像分析和野外调查等方法,关注灌丛沙堆发展过程与农业活动之间的关系。研究发现：研究区内灌丛沙堆的发育规模和数量变化在很大程度上受到区域农业活动的影响。2009—2020年,红旗一社和红眼沙研究点灌丛沙堆面积均呈现出明显递减趋势,分别减少了约7.38 ×10⁴ m²和35.02 ×10⁴ m²。研究得出当地农民的垦荒行为是区域灌丛沙堆消亡现象发生的主要原因;此外,发现农民利用灌丛沙堆进行土壤改良,此活动可在一定程度上缓解河套平原黄河灌溉区存在的土地盐渍化问题。但考虑到灌丛沙堆对于风沙危害的防治作用,建议未来需对其进行有规划的保护。     

我国南方典型城市土壤重金属污染特征及源汇关系分析

工业化和城市化带来的重金属污染问题日益引起关注,其对环境质量、食品安全、人体健康及社会经济的可持续发展构成了严重的威胁和挑战.本文以我国南方典型城市化区域为研究对象,通过采集表层(0～20 cm)、亚表层(20～40 cm)及剖面(0～100 cm)土壤,检测土壤中8种重金属元素(砷、镉、铬、铜、汞、镍、铅、锌)的含量,并对当地95个主要污染物排放企业的空间分布进行调查,对比土壤重金属高检出区的分布特征并进行源汇关系分析.结果发现,该区域整体上以重金属Cd超标率较高,是主要污染物和需要关注的重点,与农用地土壤污染风险筛选值(0.3 mg·kg~(-1))相比其超标率达71.7%.通过对排放源进行分析,确定了电子电镀和染织两个主要排放行业.工业集中区北部8种重金属元素的平均含量水平显著高于其他区域,受工业和农业干扰较少的城市公园土壤重金属含量与土壤本底值接近.As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn的高检出区主要集中在北部区域,研究区95个主要污染物排放单位中,72个位于城市北部,主要是电镀和染色皮革行业.进一步研究证明,这些重点排污企业加重了当地土壤中重金属的污染,是当地重金属污染的主要驱动因素.     

污染物排放量与河流水质输入响应关系初步研究——小清河(济南段)为例

污染物排放量与河流水质输入响应关系的建立,是实施排污总量控制的关键.文章以小清河(济南段)为例,将小清河分为睦里庄-还乡店段,还乡店-大码头段和大码头-辛丰庄段,应用一维稳态河流水质模型,确定相应模型参数,与水质实测值相结合,建立污染物排放量与河流水质的输入响应关系,计算响应系数.结果表明:小清河不同段COD的响应系数分别为94.3％、76.7％和76.6％,氨氮的响应系数分别为277.2％、85.7％和58.8％;COD的计算值与实测值比较接近,而睦里庄-还乡店段、大码头-辛丰庄段氨氮的计算值与实测值偏差较大.     

Persistent organochlorine contaminants in hair samples of Northern Poland population, 1968-2009

The European regulation on chemicals, REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals), came into force on 1 June 2007. With pre-registration complete in 2008, data for these substances may provide an overview of the expected chemical space and its characteristics. In this paper, using various in silico computation tools, we evaluate 48 782 neutral organic compounds from the list to identify hazardous and safe compounds. Two different classification schemes (modified Verhaar and ECOSAR) identified between 17% and 25% of the compounds as expressing only baseline toxicity (narcosis). A smaller portion could be identified as reactive (19%) or specifically acting (2.7%), while the majority were non-assigned (61%). Overall environmental persistence, bioaccumulation and long-range transport potential were evaluated using structure-activity relationships and a multimedia fugacity-based model. A surprisingly high proportion of compounds (20%), mainly aromatic and halogenated, had a very high estimated persistence (>195 d). The proportion of compounds with a very high estimated bioconcentration or bioaccumulation factor (>5000) was substantially less (6.9%). Finally, a list was compiled of those compounds within the applicability domain of the models used, meeting both persistence and bioaccumulation criteria, and with a long-range transport potential comparable to PCB. This list of 68 potential persistent organic pollutants contained many well-known compounds (all halogenated), but notably also five fluorinated compounds that were not included in the EINECS inventory. This study demonstrates the usability of in silico tools for identification of potentially environmentally hazardous chemicals.     

环境空气背景值中PM2．5和PM10的相关性分析

四川省大气背景站颗粒物PM2．5和PM10实时监测结果表明,两个点位的PM2．5浓度占PM10浓度分别为80．15％、68．9％,两个点位的PM2．j浓度和PM10浓度均呈显著线性关系,点位1：y=0．8634x-0．2212,R^2=0．9823;点位2：y=0．7352x-0．2142,R^2=0．7767。