资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证

针对"资源诅咒"研究中自然资源度量指标选取存在的科学性问题,利用资源产业空间集聚代替自然资源丰裕度和资源产业依赖度作为自然资源丰裕程度的解释变量。首先,在Krugman空间基尼系数的基础上,构建适用于测度资源产业空间集聚的计算公式,基于我国30个省(区、市)层面的数据,量化1999—2013年间资源产业的空间集聚程度,分析其排名情况和分布格局。研究显示:我国有15个省(区、市)存在资源产业空间集聚现象,这些地区大多位于长江以北,且均为自然资源富集地区。其次,构建经济增长计量模型,选取存在资源产业空间集聚现象的省(区、市)作为样本空间,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业空间集聚度与区域经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业空间集聚的系数符号均为负,且在5%的水平上显著,说明资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长间的关系呈现负相关,符合"资源诅咒"的基本假设。2在模型分步估计中,人力资本投资、技术创新投入和制造业发展与区域经济增长正相关,符合经典经济增长理论的逻辑关系;物质资本投资与区域经济增长负相关,可能是由于当地经济主体的消费跨期替代弹性较小,导致物质资本投资对经济增长的直接增益效应小于其对社会人力资本积累的负向效应,进而阻碍区域经济增长;政府干涉程度越高越不利于经济增长。根据研究结果,建议应明确市场调节为主、政府调控为辅的导向机制,进一步提升资源产业空间集聚程度,强化行业人员素质与技术水平匹配,逐步提高自然资源生产和利用效率,从而实现加快地区经济转型,有效促进经济可持续发展的全面提升。     

Global trends and development of energy services industry in China

Energy service is an effective way to promote energy conservation by market mechanisms, including energy saving services, energy procurement, supply of many varieties of energy, supply of renewable energy technologies, energy-related consulting services, risk management, etc. China is a major energy consumer but energy is in short supply, and the efficiency of energy use is low. China’s energy service industry has expanded rapidly, in terms of both the number of new Energy Service Companies entering the market and amount of capital invested in Energy Performance Contracting projects, but the energy service sector in China is still at an early stage of development. Developed countries began early in developing the energy service sector and their energy service market is mature, and the experience of developed countries shows that energy services play a significant role in advancing energy saving and emission reduction. Under the new situation, China needs combine energy services experience of developed countries, and take following measures to accelerate China’s energy services rapid and healthy development, including the long-term aspects of policy planning, energy-saving core technology, finance and capital investment, public sector reductions, personnel training, and so on.     

Balancing Conservation and Economic Sustainability: The Future of the Amazon Timber Industry

Logging has been a much maligned feature of frontier development in the Amazon. Most discussions ignore the fact that logging can be part of a renewable, environmentally benign, and broadly equitable economic activity in these remote places. We estimate there to be some 4.5 ± 1.35 billion m³ of commercial timber volume in the Brazilian Amazon today, of which 1.2 billion m³ is currently profitable to harvest, with a total potential stumpage value of $15.4 billion. A successful forest sector in the Brazilian Amazon will integrate timber harvesting on private lands and on unprotected and unsettled government lands with timber concessions on public lands. If a legal, productive, timber industry can be established outside of protected areas, it will deliver environmental benefits in synergy with those provided by the region’s network of protected areas, the latter of which we estimate to have an opportunity cost from lost timber revenues of $2.3 billion over 30 years. Indeed, on all land accessible to harvesting, the timber industry could produce an average of more than 16 million m³ per year over a 30-year harvest cycle—entirely outside of current protected areas—providing $4.8 billion in returns to landowners and generating $1.8 billion in sawnwood sales tax revenue. This level of harvest could be profitably complemented with an additional 10% from logging concessions on National Forests. This advance, however, should be realized only through widespread adoption of reduced impact logging techniques.     

A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland

Background, aim, and scope  The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing. Materials and methods  An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates, and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted. An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken. Results  The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5 × 10⁶ m³ and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g⁻¹ or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g⁻¹ d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m³). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors. The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher (RR = 1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m³) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during autumn 2008. Conclusions  The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for (former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making. Recommendations and perspectives  The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed, e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

环境规制对技术效率和生产力损失的影响分析

以中国工业为研究对象,以经济发展程度不同所分的东部、中部和西部地区兰个地区作为研究区域,采用非参数数据包络法(DEA)中的径自效率测量方法(radial efficiency measure)为主要研究方法,分析了在1998-2005年期间环境规制对中国工业的技术效率和生产力损失的影响.研究结果表明,在指定的研究期间,环境规制使得中国工业技术效率提高,但是对于生产力的发展却产生了负面的影响.三个地区之间受环境规制影响的差异较大,其中东部为环境规制所付出的成本最大,即东部为环境污染所付出的环境成本最高,这也是为何从九十年代开始,污染物从东部往中西部转移的原因;从受污染物影响的角度来看,因控制废水而引起的生产力损失大于因控制SO2而引起的生产力损失,即对于中国工业,废水的环境成本大于SO2的环境成本.另外,从研究结果中也可知,在中国现有的生产方式下,实施严格的环境规制有一定难度,所以改变旧的生产方式,实施可持续发展的生产方式是当务之急.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

我国火电厂脱硫脱硝行业2008年发展综述

介绍了2008年我国火电厂脱硫脱硝行业的发展概况,分析了行业存在的主要问题,并提出了对策及建议。     

加快发展福建省环保产业的对策措施

分析了福建省环保产业的发展状况及存在的主要问题,对福建省环保产业的发展进行了展望,提出了加快福建省环保产业市场发展的对策与措施。     

试论新疆工业发展与清洁生产水平及潜力分析

通过对新疆工业产业结构、规模、资源配置优化程度、工业发展区域等工业现状及其发展趋势分析,从宏观的角度以实例对新疆工业的清洁生产水平及新疆工业重点行业清洁生产潜力进行分析,提出新疆清洁生产总体发展思路,为新疆经济管理部门、环境管理部门贯彻《清洁生产促进法》,制定相应的清洁生产政策和法规提供参考。     

昌吉市高新技术产业开发区循环经济模式探索及研究

传统开发区内,资源的流动是一些相互不发生关系的线性物质流的叠加,出入系统的物质流远远大于内部交互的物质流,因而造成经济活动的＂高开采、低利用、高排放＂特征,即＂大量生产、大量消费和大量废弃＂[1]。而发展循环经济,是我国贯彻落实科学发展观、建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的重大战略选择[。2]目前新型开发区产业发展,则要求按照循环经济的理念,积极探索发展循环经济之路。本文以昌吉市高新技术产业开发区为例,研究其循环经济模式,为其他开发区设计和发展提供有益的经验和建议。