Improving Efficiency Of Uncertainty Analysis In Complex Integrated Assessment Models: The Case Of The Rains Emission Module

Abstact Ever since the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation Model (RAINS) has been constructed, the treatment of uncertainty has remained an issue of major interest. In a recent review of the model performed for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, a more systematic and structured uncertainty analysis has been recommended. This paper aims at contributing to the scientific debate how this can be achieved. Because of its complex structure on the one hand and limited research resources (time, computational capacities) on the other hand a full-blown uncertainty analysis in RAINS is hardly feasible. Therefore, all types of uncertainty require more efficient ways for uncertainty analysis. With respect to parameter uncertainty, we propose to focus research efforts for uncertainty analysis on key parameters. Among different approaches to select key parameters that have been discussed in the literature screening methods seem to be particularly appropriate for complex, deterministic Integrated Assessment models such as RAINS. Surprisingly, in Integrated Assessment modelling for air pollution problems of screening design have not been taken up so far. As a case study we consider the emission module of RAINS. We show that its structure allows for a straightforward and effective screening procedure     

山东省不同下垫面大气扩散参数的对比分析

利用在山东各地进行的多次建设项目大气环境影响评价中的大气扩散试验结果,对不同垫面的大气扩散参数做对比分析,讨论下垫面的变化对大气扩散参数的影响以及大气扩散能力与大气污染物浓度分布的关系,试验均采用平衡法进行。结果表明：不同地形下的大气扩散参数有明显差异。与国际扩散参数值相比,山区比平原高０．５－１级,平原地区与国标基本一致,工业区模向扩散参数与国标基本相当,垂直扩散参数１个级别以上;沿海地区横向扩     

基于MCMC法的水质模型参数不确定性研究

参数识别是数学模型应用的前提.鉴于常用贝叶斯离散化方法在搜索复杂模型参数后验分布时的计算限制的原因,本文引入了MCMC采样法.为考察MCMC法对参数后验分布的搜索性能和效率,进行了2个案例研究.结果表明,MCMC法对参数后验分布的搜索,无论是搜索性能还是搜索效率,均表现出了独特的优越性.同时,Gelman收敛判别准则计算表明,MCMC采样序列均能稳定收敛到参数的后验分布上.可见,MCMC法适用于复杂环境模型的参数识别和不确定分析研究.     

北方寒冷地区SBR设计参数的修正及其探讨

在城市污水处理系统中,通常的SBR工艺设计参数多适用于常温的环境即15～30℃。而我国北方寒冷地区,冬季水温一般在6～10℃,如果仍按照常规参数进行工程设计,在一定程度上不能满足北方城市污水处理系统的实际情况,出水水质很难达到排放要求。因此,应把温度参数与反应动力学联系起来,通过试验和工程实例对SBR的常规设计参数进行低温下的修正,以适应北方寒冷地区的城市污水处理厂的设计要求。     

多层递阶方法在水资源预测中的应用

多层递阶预测是近十几年提出并发展起来的动态系统新型统计预测理论。由于该方法把动态系统看成是一个时变参数系统,因而符合客观这际预测误差相对较小,用它对水资源进行预测具有一定的实用价值。     

基于遗传算法的大气颗粒物的源解析

遗传算法是一种全局优化的随机搜索方法,适用于模型参数寻优。将遗传算法用于大气颗粒物源解析的CMB方程组中参数的优化,得到各污染源对大气颗粒物的优化贡献率。该方法应用于成都市大气颗粒物的源解析结果与用其他多种源解析法得出的结果基本一致。理论分析和应用实践表明了遗传算法用于大气颗粒物源解析研究具有简便、准确和实用性强等特点。      

霉菌试验中有关问题的探讨

就霉菌试验中几个关键参数选择如霉菌试验周期、湿度等问题进行了讨论分析．同时介绍了培养基灭菌方法和菌种的贮存方法。     

城市低矮街道峡谷汽车排放NOx扩散模式的初探

通过对武汉市珞狮路路段的车流量、NOx 浓度和气象要素的调查与监测 ,分析了珞狮路交通流量的特征 ,给出了源强的计算公式 ,并重点讨论了街道两侧环境中 NOx 浓度与各种影响因素之间的关系 ,发现城市低矮峡谷中 NOx 扩散不同于以往的研究结果 ,有其自己的特殊性。最后提出了扩散模式参数的处理方法 ,为建立城市低矮街道峡谷排放 NOx 扩散模式提供了基础     

SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION SYSTEMS: A CONSISTENT ESTIMATOR FOR UNKNOWN PARAMETERS IN CONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents criteria for establishing the identification status of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow. Three linear estimation methods (ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, and three-stage least squares) and one nonlinear method (maximum likelihood) are used to estimate the matrices of parameters embedded in the partial differential equation characterizing confined flow. Computational experience indicates several advantages of maximum likelihood over the linear methods.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR TPLN DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive an alternative method for parameter estimation for the three parameter lognormal (TPLN) distribution. Six sets of annual peak discharge data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments and maximum likelihood estimation.