“禁麻”对武汉市空气质量的影响

从武汉市取缔正三轮摩托车("麻木")的事件出发,简述了正三轮摩托车的污染危害,计算了取缔车辆1年排放的有害物质,通过监测数据说明了对大气环境的影响。     

CALIBRATING AND VERIFYING THE SSARR MODEL -MISSOURI RIVER WATERSHEDS STUDY1

The Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model was calibrated and verified on the Madison and Gallatin watersheds in the upper Missouri River drainage. The study was performed to determine if the SSARR model could simulate snowmelt-runoff volumes to effect better operation of six multipurpose reservoirs on the Missouri River. Physical watershed characteristics and parameter sensitivity are incorporated into a procedure which expedites model calibration. Criteria are established to facilitate parameter development and to objectively evaluate calibration and verification results. A ratio of simulated to observed snowmelt-runoff volumes of the Madison River averaged 1.00 and 1.02 for calibration (N = 8 years) and verification (N = 6 years) with corresponding standard deviations of 0.08 and 0.13. Gallatin volume ratios averaged 0.99 and 0.95 for calibration (N = 7 years) and verification (N = 5 years) with respective standard deviations of 0.08 and 0.28.     

APPLICATION OF COMPUTER INTENSIVE STATISTICS TO PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN STREAMFLOW SYNTHESIS1

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the application of Computer Intensive Statistics (CIS) to the evaluation of parameter uncertainty with specific reference to the parameters in the ARMA models used in the synthesis of streamflows. The CIS provides an empirically derived joint distribution for all parameters. Random values from this distribution can be drawn for application in the model for the generation of a specific synthetic sample. The CIS originally proposed by Efron and discussed herein is of general applicability in the evaluation of uncertainty in any statistic derived from a set of data. Some comments and limitations of the CIS are discussed in the concluding remarks.     

长治市冰雹气候特征及预报研究

对1980—2003年长治市冰雹天气的气候背景进行了统计分析，明确了冰雹发生的时空尺度，地理分布，月、年际变化，冰雹发源地以及冰雹主要影响路径；利用500hPa天气图，给出了降雹的天气形势及高空冷空气的活动路径；分析了冰雹天气的0℃层高度、-20℃层高度、水汽条件和稳定度等参数；采用最优子集回归方法对850hPa和500hPa高空指标站进行了选取，分析了这些站点及本站14时（压、温、湿、风）的气象要素，建立了综合性预报模型。     

ASM1改进模型简介及应用

Twostepmantis模型是在ASM1模型基础上发展而成,它可对碳氧化、传统硝化反硝化、同时硝化反硝化过程、好氧反硝化进行模拟。应用Twostepmantis模型,对一序批式活性污泥法(SBR)实验进行模拟预测,结果表明,模型确实可以很有效解释大部分实验数据。     

基于模态参数的桥墩结构损伤识别数值研究

铁路简支梁桥桥墩横向振动时,可简化为墩顶具有集中质量的悬臂梁模型,地基约束用地基弹簧模拟。研究墩身的结构性损伤时,该模型与基底固结的悬臂梁模型原理相同。利用冲击振动试验法可以准确得到桥墩的一阶振型和一阶频率,利用这两个参数可以构造出一阶振型比、特征参数、一阶曲率模态差三个指标。以一混凝土悬臂梁为例,用一阶振型比、特征参数、一阶曲率模态差指标进行结构损伤识别的数值研究,总结了特征参数指标在结构损伤前后的变化规律。分析结果表明几个指标对损伤比较敏感。     

防化服结构和缝制工艺优化设计研究

本文研究了防化服的设计原则,对我国某型防化服装进行了分析,在腰部、袖型、膝部的结构上进行改进,使服装更趋合理、人性化,更便于作业活动。针对防化服影响防护效果的缝制工艺参数,利用二次通用旋转实验设计,变化机针针号、线迹密度及缝纫线细度三个因素五个水平;针对“三防”面料进行防油、防水、防静电测试,得到防护性能与缝制工艺参数之间的回归方程,并绘出等值曲线图,进一步分析了缝制工艺对面料防油、防水、防静电性能的影响,通过Borda数找出最优缝制工艺参数,并将应用到防化服的加工制作中。     

Automatic Calibration of Hydrologic Models With Multi‐Objective Evolutionary Algorithm and Pareto Optimization1

Abstract: In optimization problems with at least two conflicting objectives, a set of solutions rather than a unique one exists because of the trade‐offs between these objectives. A Pareto optimal solution set is achieved when a solution cannot be improved upon without degrading at least one of its objective criteria. This study investigated the application of multi‐objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) and Pareto ordering optimization in the automatic calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a process‐based, semi‐distributed, and continuous hydrologic model. The nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA‐II), a fast and recent MOEA, and SWAT were called in FORTRAN from a parallel genetic algorithm library (PGAPACK) to determine the Pareto optimal set. A total of 139 parameter values were simultaneously and explicitly optimized in the calibration. The calibrated SWAT model simulated well the daily streamflow of the Calapooia watershed for a 3‐year period. The daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.86 at calibration and 0.81 at validation. Automatic multi‐objective calibration of a complex watershed model was successfully implemented using Pareto ordering and MOEA. Future studies include simultaneous automatic calibration of water quality and quantity parameters and the application of Pareto optimization in decision and policy‐making problems related to conflicting objectives of economics and environmental quality.     

Approaches to Evaluate Water Quality Model Parameter Uncertainty for Adaptive TMDL Implementation1

Abstract: The National Research Council recommended Adaptive Total Maximum Daily Load implementation with the recognition that the predictive uncertainty of water quality models can be high. Quantifying predictive uncertainty provides important information for model selection and decision‐making. We review five methods that have been used with water quality models to evaluate model parameter and predictive uncertainty. These methods (1) Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, (2) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, (3) Bayesian Monte Carlo, (4) Importance Sampling, and (5) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are based on similar concepts; their development over time was facilitated by the increasing availability of fast, cheap computers. Using a Streeter‐Phelps model as an example we show that, applied consistently, these methods give compatible results. Thus, all of these methods can, in principle, provide useful sets of parameter values that can be used to evaluate model predictive uncertainty, though, in practice, some are quickly limited by the “curse of dimensionality” or may have difficulty evaluating irregularly shaped parameter spaces. Adaptive implementation invites model updating, as new data become available reflecting water‐body responses to pollutant load reductions, and a Bayesian approach using MCMC is particularly handy for that task.     

上海崇明岛沉积物重金属污染的磁学研究

系统分析了上海崇明岛的8个样点沉积物样品的重金属元素和磁化率、频率磁化率以及饱和等温剩磁等磁参数之间的关系,结果表明:介于轻度污染和偏中度污染的重金属Pb、Cr、Cu、zn元素与磁性矿物特别是亚铁磁性矿物之间在赋存形态、沉积特征上存在一定的联系,因此磁性测量可作为沉积物重金属污染记录信息提取的辅助手段,但不同的磁性参数对重金属的指示程度不同,由于本研究以较粗的多畴亚铁磁性矿物为主,同时质量磁化率(x)、非磁滞剩磁磁化率与饱和等温剩磁的比值(XARM/SIRM)对重金属元素含量变化比较敏感,因而X、XARM/SIRM可作为重金属含量的替代指标.最后在重金属元素和磁性参数相关性的基础上建立了磁诊断线性回归模型.