PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF COVARIANCES OF REGIONALIZED VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: The usefulness of stochastic models in describing the spatial variability of hydrogeologic quantities, such as permeability, storativity, piezometric head, seepage velocity, and solute concentrations is now widely recognized. In practice, these quantities are represented as the sum of a well-structured component, or drift, and a more erratic fluctuation component which is described statistically through its covariance function. This paper reviews some of the most recent and most promising methods for the estimation of parameters of these covariances from existing data. They are maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, minimum-variance unbiased quadratic estimation, and minimum-norm (weighted least squares) estimation. The applicability of such methods to conditional and unconditional probability problems is discussed.     

AAS与ICP－AES间接测定天然水中硫酸盐

本文以与过量形成ＢａＳＯ＿４沉淀反应为基础，较详细地讨论了反应条件、从而拟定了用ＡＡＳ和ＩＣＰ－ＡＥＳ间接测定天然水中的方法、确定了方法的精密度，ＡＡＳ法的ＲＳＤ％为１．５，ＩＣＰ－ＡＥＳ法为３．２．两种方法对比分析的结果接近，误差为１．０％（相对）。用于天然水中的测定，获得满意的结果。     

微波消解法测定农药废水中的总磷

介绍了一种测定农药废水中总磷的新的预处理方法－微波消解法。其消解时间从传统法的40min缩短到8min，精确度和准确度与传统的消解法相比无显著性差异。     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

AFS-830型双道原子荧光光度计同时测定饮用水中砷、汞

主要探讨应用AFS-830型双道原子荧光光度计，在饮用水监测中同时测定水中砷、汞的方法和技术。此法是在硝酸介质，以硼氢化钠作还原剂，进行原子化，被测元素原子激发出荧光强度值在一定范围内与被测元素的浓度成正比。砷与汞的检出限分别为0．0618和0．0158ug／L。     

An Analysis of the Wind Energy Potential of Elazig,Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the wind energy potential of Elazig is statistically analyzed based on hourly measured wind speed data over the five-year period from 1998 to 2002. The probability density distributions are derived from cumulative distribution functions. Two probability density functions are fitted to the measured probability distribution on a yearly basis. The wind energy potential of the location is studied based on the Weibull and Rayleigh distributions. It was found that the numerical values of both Weibull parameters (k and c) for Elazig vary over a wide range. The yearly values of k range from 1.653 to 1.878 with an average value of 1.819, while those of c are in the range of 2.757–2.994 m/s with an average value of 2.824 m/s. In addition, yearly mean wind speed and mean power density of Elazig is found as 2.79 m/s and 38.76 W/m², respectively. The wind speed distributions are represented by Weibull distribution and also by Rayleigh distribution, with a special case of the Weibull distribution for k = 2. As a result, the Rayleigh distribution is found to be suitable to represent the actual probability of wind speed data for Elazig.     

时变参数模型用于滑坡位移量预测的研究

滑坡的位移量发展受地质条件、气候环境以及人类活动等多种因素的影响,变化复杂,通常难以用固定参数的数学模型准确表达。时变参数模型的模型参数随时间变化,能够描述更为复杂的函数关系。将时变参数模型应用于滑坡位移量预测,通过对比发现,时变参数模型有望提高滑坡位移量的预测精度。     

森林合理年伐量分析确定方法研究

森林合理年伐分析确定是年森林采伐限额编制的关键技术之一,也是森林经理学的重要内容之一。本文从森林永续利用理论出发,以消长比度、成熟林采伐度、龄级结构改善度、流量均衡度、需要满足度５个指标建立了分析确定的综合评价模型,提出了森林合理年伐量分析确定的精确化方法,从而有效地保证了结果的科学性和准确性。     

浅谈水体中硫化物保存、分离和测定方法的选择

水体中的硫化物是环境监测和工厂验收监测的一个重要参数.由于水中硫化物的不稳定性和水体中的干扰物质较多,保存常用技术为醋酸锌-氢氧化钠保存技术,但由于测定的手段不同,可根据不同的测定方法选用不同的保存和分离技术.比色法和碘量法时选用锌盐保存技术,分离技术有吹气分离、负压抽气分离或酸性溶液加锌产生氢气分离,选用不同的吸收液后测量;用间接测定技术时,可选用不同的金属盐进行沉淀后测定金属离子;选用电化学方法测定时,可选用使用于电化学的保存技术.为了准确地测定水体中的硫化物,宜选择最好的保存技术、分离技术和测定方法,并且必须使保存技术和测定方法相匹配,获得完善的监测技术和准确的监测结果.     

城郊排水沟渠溶质传输的暂态存储影响及参数灵敏性

选择Na Cl为示踪剂,于2013年9~10月在合肥城郊的关镇河支渠开展5次瞬时投加示踪实验.从暂态存储、侧向补给和对流-扩散等作用机制层面,设置4种模拟情景,解析暂态存储作用对于排水沟渠溶质传输规律的影响,并对OTIS模型参数进行灵敏性分析.结果表明,暂态存储对于主流区Cl-模拟浓度穿透曲线(BTCs)峰值大小影响很大,相对偏差高达24.23%~117.26%,显著高于对峰值出现时间的影响,且暂态存储影响显著超过了侧向补给作用;由相关性分析,主流区Cl-模拟浓度BTCs峰值大小和出现时间的相对偏差与As/A具有极显著相关性;4个主要参数的灵敏度排序为AAsαD.