我国水源污染事故风险点定量识别方法

水源事故的频发会对城市供水系统产生威胁,有必要针对供水系统风险进行评估和防控。针对水源事故频发及高发因素定量甄别研究,筛选统计了国内近20年来1 900多起水质突发事故案例,梳理了触发水源水质污染的多种因素,通过构建水源水质安全事故树和贝叶斯网络进行了相互验证分析。结果表明：我国水源污染事故主要因素贡献为依次突然排放(0.466)、污染长期累积(0.242)、交通事故(0.109)等;采用贝叶斯网络计算进行验证,其结果与事故树方法一致性较好。该方法有助于水源污染防控工作中风险点甄别和排序,可为我国饮用水安全保障水平的提升提供支撑。     

2010—2019年成都市机动车排污特征分析及防控措施减排效果评估

为评估2010—2019年成都市机动车防控措施的减排效果,以2010年为基准年,采用排放清单法计算了各减排措施下2019年的减排量,对比分析了4种控制措施的减排效益。结果表明：成都市机动车排污总量逐年下降,2019年PM_2.5、NO_x、VOCs、CO、SO₂和NH₃的排放量分别为0.27×10⁴、4.63×10⁴、1.70×10⁴、28.99×10⁴、0.21×10⁴和0.45×10⁴ t,主要分布在中心城区,其中重型货车对PM_2.5和NO_x贡献最大,小型客车对VOCs、CO、SO₂和NH₃贡献最大;措施中加严标准的综合减排量最大,重点减排车型为小型客车、轻型货车、公交车等,2019年6种污染物减排量分别为0.14×10⁴、2.27×10⁴、1.29×10⁴、6.77×10⁴、0.07×10⁴和0.38×10⁴ t;优化城市交通管理对小型客车和摩托车的减排效果显著,2019年6种污染物减排量分别为0.04×10⁴、0.81×10⁴、0.38×10⁴、2.55×10⁴、0.05×10⁴和0.04×10⁴ t;淘汰高排放车辆对小型客车、轻型货车等的减排较明显,2019年6种污染物减排放量分别为0.13×10⁴、0.98×10⁴、0.34×10⁴、2.62×10⁴、0.01×10⁴和0.007×10⁴ t;推广清洁能源汽车的重点减排车型为出租车和公交车,虽然可有效减少PM_2.5、NO_x的排放,但VOCs却有小幅增加,2019年6种污染物减排放量分别为0.12×10⁴、0.62×10⁴、−0.13×10⁴、0.30×10⁴、0.004×10⁴和0.000 5×10⁴ t。     

实行年度目标考核是促进监测工作发展的有效方法

实行年度目标责任制考核 ,为监测站的改革和发展找到了一条有效途径。文章通过对年度目标考核责任制的方式、方法及实施后所取得成效的介绍 ,为监测站的改革与发展提供了借鉴     

原状黄土的反压饱和法试验研究

含水量是黄土液化特性研究中的一个至关重要的参数,对原状黄土进行充分饱和是饱和黄土动三轴试验中一个不可回避的课题。以WF公司生产的WF12440型空心圆柱扭剪仪为实验平台,运用反压饱和法,对室内原状黄土进行了饱和试验研究。该仪器提供3种不同加压方式增加围压和反压(孔压),即手动加压、自动加压和线性持续加压,通过检测孔隙压力系数B值是否达到0.95以上来判断黄土是否完全饱和。试验表明,即便是初始饱和度较低的原状黄土,也可以采用反压饱和法,在较短的时间内使孔压系数B值达到0.95以上,实现完全饱和,具体可以采用线性连续加压方式;初始压力差,即围压和反压之差一般可设为10 kPa,起始围压也设为10 kPa,太大或太小都会对试样造成破坏;如果孔压在1分钟内的变化值小于围压和反压之间压力差的5%,则认为孔压稳定,即可进行B值检测。     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

Stipulation of the criteria for the construction of eco agricultural county in China

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标准BOD5测定法的"空气净化--稀释水曝气"装置研究

"稀释与接种法"是BOD5的标准测定方法,制备溶解氧接近饱和且不含能干扰生化耗氧过程的物质的稀释水,是该法重要的工作之一.由真空泵带动的"空气净化--稀释水曝气"装置,流程合理、装配容易、调控灵活,可连贯进行空气净化与稀释水曝气,而制取符合质量要求的稀释水.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区生态风险空间识别及开发利用权衡——以兰州市为例

基于社会经济发展与土地资源利用管理、生态环境保护之间矛盾的现实需求,以兰州市为例,通过区域开发生态风险传递过程分析,构建黄土丘陵沟壑区区域开发生态风险评价框架,结合自然生态风险、开发生态风险和生态重要性,定量评价黄土丘陵沟壑区开发利用综合生态风险并识别其空间分布特征,最后结合丘陵地区建设用地适宜性,权衡黄土丘陵沟壑等未利用地的开发与生态环境保护.结果表明:兰州市综合生态风险以中、低等级为主;兰州市二类未利用地占比最大,为51.67%;一类未利用地在海拔相对较低的皋兰县北部、永登县庄浪河以东集中分布,占总面积的37.45%.权衡兰州市综合生态风险与未利用地开发适宜性,一、二类用地的综合生态风险以1级低风险为主.其中,一类用地集中连片度高,坡度、海拔等自然本底相对较好,是未来未利用地综合开发建设优先选择区域;二类用地因自然地理条件的限制,开发难度大,开发成本高,可以作为后备土地开发资源选择性开发.