‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon, Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

中国农业资源的可持续性分析

本文以农业资源可持续利用的三项基本约束条件为前提,从广义上（时间上的可持续约束、空间上的可持续约束、资源管理上的可持续约束）和狭义上（粮食增长速率和人口增长速率的同调对应）对于中国农业可持续发展与农业资源可持续利用,作了理论上的分析和实际上的计算。并将中同从１９５２～１９９５年划为８个时段,分别作了可持续发展分析并寻求其背景原因,作出了相应的农业可持续发展模型。最后,对于未来中国农业可持续发展的战略提出了基本的监控指标。     

刚性桩复合地基的理论、实测与安全性研究

科学合理的设计理论是工程安全性和经济性的保障,现场监测是确保工程安全和质量最有效的手段。本文以提高刚性桩复合地基工程的安全性为目的,围绕关乎建筑物安全的“沉降量”等参数指标,从设计理论与试验监测两个方面开展研究。本文完善了刚性桩复合地基的设计理论,通过现场监测试验取得了第一手的数据资料,可作为今后类似工程的设计和施工参考。本研究为进一步提高刚性桩复合地基的安全性提供了理论和实践保障。     

粉煤灰源NaY沸石的制备及其对乙酸乙酯的吸附性能研究

采用粉煤灰合成沸石的方法既经济又环保,在乙酸乙酯吸附领域中具有巨大应用前景.遵循节能减排、废物再利用的环保原则,探索了3种不同Si/Al比的粉煤灰、结晶温度、结晶时间和碱浓度4个因素对合成NaY沸石的影响.XRD、氮气吸脱附实验及ICP结果表明,Si/Al比和水热结晶温度对高比表面积NaY沸石的合成影响最大.Si/Al比在1左右的粉煤灰合成的沸石比表面积较低,且晶形中存在大量的NaA沸石,而Si/Al比在2左右的粉煤灰合成了高比表面积且纯度较高的NaY沸石;3种粉煤灰均在65 ℃下合成NaY沸石,但在105 ℃下完全转化为方钠石.实验优化结果表明,最优合成条件为采用Si/Al为2左右的粉煤灰,在2 mol·L^-1碱浓度、65 ℃水热温度下结晶12 h.该条件下合成的NaY沸石比表面积高达654.86 m²·g^-1(比表面积最高的粉煤灰源沸石之一),是原粉煤灰比表面积的22倍左右,对乙酸乙酯的吸附量也由15.4 mg·g^-1增至108.2 mg·g^-1.     

Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

基于热风险理论对道化学评价中物质系数的研究

随着本质安全研究的深入,道化学评价方法中物质系数MF的计算已不能准确描述反应物本身的热风险大小。在道化学评价方法中引入热风险概念,比较热危险性评价方法和道化学评价方法间相异点;以六甲基磷酰三胺工艺为研究对象,用DSC量热仪对反应物进行分析得出放热速率q、反应波峰峰值、单位质量的反应焓Hr,对采集的工艺参数用热力学理论外推法、基因贡献法得出活化能E、比热容CP并以此求出最大反应失效时间TMRad、绝热温升Qad、物质系数MF值以及工艺单元中物料量。得出最大反应失效时间与物质系数MF间具有相关性,道化学评价方法对因失效反应引发二次反应的热风险评估也适用。     

概率统计在矿井通风系统可靠性评估中的应用

构建一个随机非稳定地下矿山通风系统,此通风系统有三个机组,机组的随机运行状态构成了一个完整的“系统的概率结构”。对此通风系统的运行状态进行概率统计分析,探讨了该随机系统的特征。由此推导出了通风系统故障的平均时间是一个显式的概率表达式。同时,假设系统失效时间和更换时间符合指数分布的情况下,得出计算系统故障平均时间的一个五阶多项式公式。通过验证,证明了系统故障平均时间的大小依赖于系统维修和更换的比率,而且是检验系统可靠性的重要指标,有利于提高矿山安全水平。     

API Standard 521 new alternative method to evaluate fire relief for pressure relief device sizing and depressuring system design

Since the 1950's, API Standards have provided guidance on determining relief loads for equipment exposed to pool fires. The API method is empirical based on tests performed in the 1940's. There is increasingly widespread interest in analytical methods based on heat transfer principles to model fire heat input. The API committee agreed to include an analytical method in the 6th edition of API Standard 521 to establish relief loads for pressure relief devices and to design depressuring systems for the fire scenario. The analytical method provides more flexibility than the empirical method but has limitations (e.g., too many permutations are possible leading to potential under-sizing of the pressure relief device).This paper discusses the basis for the empirical method in API Standard 521 and provides comparisons of the empirical and analytical method with two more recent large-scale pool fire tests. This pool fire test data indicates that the empirical method will provide a conservative estimate of pool fire heat input for most applications and is still the method of choice when designing pressure relief systems. However, these recent tests indicate the empirical method needs to be modified when a vessel or equipment is partially confined by adjacent embankments or walls equal or greater than the vessel height. In such cases, the wetted area exponent should be 1.0 instead of 0.82.The analytical method is useful in determining time-versus-temperature profiles for heating unwetted vessels of varying wall thicknesses and materials of construction. These profiles, which depend upon the type of fire (e.g., unconfined pool fire, jet fire, etc.), can be combined with tensile strength and stress-rupture data to specify a depressuring system's pressure-versus-time profile. This will minimize failure and/or mitigate the effects of failure due to overheating from fire exposure.     

城镇污水处理排放标准改革的费效分析

从费用效果角度对提高城镇污水处理排放标准的科学性和可实施性进行探讨,利用污染源普查数据,通过城镇污水治理投资和运行函数的构建,计算不同处理规模和排放标准下的污水处理投资和运行费用,在全国层面上计算提高污水处理排放标准所需费用和污染物的减排效果.研究表明：污水处理厂的投资和运行费用的增加随着污水处理规模的增加而递减.以污...