云南省经济增长与能源消耗的计量模型研究

根据云南省1985—2003年能源消耗的统计数据以及人均GDP统计数据，分析人均GDP与能源消耗之间的相关关系，选取相关性较好的能耗指标（煤炭消耗量、石油消耗量、天然气消耗量、电力消耗量）建立两者之间的计量模型。并在此基础上分析能源消耗与人均GDP增长的关系。经研究发现，云南省经济增长与能源消耗呈类4a-Y-EKC的倒U型曲线，且曲线尚未到达转折点，能源消耗量随着经济增长将持续增长。有必要采取有利措施倡导“循环经济”、“绿色GDP”等使曲线走势向良性方向发展。     

1949～1992年我国粮食单产的气候影响分析

１９４９～１９９２年我国粮食单产呈持续增长趋势,但年际间有明显的波动。这种波动除受政策因素影响外,主要受气候波动的影响,尤其是单产水平的剧降往往与气候灾害比较严重的年景对应。为此,本文着重分析了气候产量的时空变化特征。结果表明,东部地区单产水平虽然很高,同时波动幅度也很大,应以稳产为主,中、西部地区以增产为主。从全国来看,气候产量变化的一致性特征明显,５０年代和８０年代气候条件对粮食生产比较有利。但个别年份气候产量变化会呈现出南北或东西方向的地域分异特征。     

昆明市经济增长与环境污染的计量模型研究

根据昆明市1995-2005年历年环境污染指标的统计数据和人均GDP统计数据，对人均GDP与环境污染（工业“三废”排放量）作相关分析，建立两者之间的计量模型，并在此基础上分析工业“三废”排放量与人均GDP增长的关系。经研究发现，昆明市目前仍处于工业发展期。工业废水排放量曲线和工业固体废弃物排放量随人均GDP的增长而呈下降趋势，曲线走势良好；随着经济的增长，工业废气排放量则呈上升趋势。     

二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析

在全球范围内为应对气候变化而达成二氧化碳减排共识的背景下,探求“经济增长”与“二氧化碳排放”间相互关系.运用协整,向量自回归模型,脉冲响应函数以及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对处在经济发展不同阶段区域的人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间关系进行因果检验.研究结果表明：区域经济发展与人均二氧化碳排放量存在长期均衡关系,但是由于区域间经济发展水平及发展方式的不同,人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间相互影响程度存在差异,且二氧化碳排放量的减少并不是经济增长的必然结果,必须通过产业结构调整,扶持第三产业,使用清洁能源,发展低碳经济的方式来实现,本文对我国碳减排政策的制定具有一定借鉴意义.     

要素与效率耦合视角下中国人均灰水足迹驱动效应研究

论文系统测度了中国大陆31省区2000—2014年间的人均灰水足迹,首次将生产要素中最关键的资本和劳动力要素引入到人均灰水足迹的驱动效应研究中,同时耦合了传统的环境效率与技术效率因素。应用扩展的Kaya恒等式和LMDI模型,综合分析了上述因素对人均灰水足迹的驱动效应。结果表明：1）从全国范围来看,技术效率效应的减量作用最大,资本产出效应的减量作用近年有所提高,资本深化效应的增量作用最大。2）技术效率效应、资本产出效应和资本深化效应都呈现西北高、东南低的分布格局;河北、北京、天津和山东的环境效率效应和技术效率效应对人均灰水足迹的减量作用较大,其他省区技术效率效应和资本产出效应更有利于人均灰水足迹的降低;资本深化效应在各地都会造成人均灰水足迹的显著提升。     

From socioeconomic disparity to environmental injustice: the relationship between housing unit density and community green space in a medium city in Pakistan

Rapid urbanisation, lack of proactive planning and improper allocation of resources may result in socio-economic disparity among and within cities, causing social unrest and environmental injustice in the neighbourhoods. This study aims to examine whether the planning standards for housing schemes in Pakistan are able to maintain equitable access to green spaces within the cities. Ten residential sites in Sheikhupura city with different housing unit sizes and densities were selected for the study. The supply of urban green infrastructure in housing scheme has been assessed: (i) by comparing the percentage of green spaces, including community parks and open spaces and street landscape; and (ii) by calculating per dwelling unit and per capita share of green spaces. These indicators have been studied against the housing density and population density of the schemes by applying correlation and linear regression models. The results show that all the housing schemes plans provide for similar amounts of green space as a percentage of total area. The per capita share of green spaces is very low in high-density areas, but interestingly, the street landscape has a higher potential to contribute to the overall landscape in high-density neighbourhoods, compensating for low per capita green space. Housing unit density and population density must be incorporated in planning standards so planners can effectively devise a mix of community parks, street landscape and private green spaces to help maintain per capita green spaces, and hence environmental resource equality in different parts of the city.     

可燃物表面积和厚度对建筑物内火灾载荷的影响

火灾载荷是判断建筑物室内火灾危险程度的依据，以前人们对火灾载荷的研究局限于只考虑可燃物的种类和量，并没有考虑到可燃物的形状、厚度和摆放位置对火灾载荷的影响。该文建立了简单的模型讨论了可燃物的表面积和厚度对火灾载荷的影响，并应用这种模型对三个典型的建筑房间进行了火灾载荷的研究，取得了较好的结果。     

单产提升潜力衰减模型法在河南粮食单产中长期预测中的应用研究

粮食单产水平的提高是河南粮食增产的主要原因,准确预测粮食单产水平,对科学判断河南粮食生产能力、制定粮食生产战略意义重大。论文针对目前直接以单产为变量建立的预测模型未能反映出单产增长的有限性和增速的减缓性之不足,研究提出了一种基于单产提升潜力衰减过程的单产预测方法。该方法利用河南耕地的平均单产潜力和历年实际单产数据,计算得到河南历年单产可提升潜力值;依据单产提升潜力理论上呈逐渐衰减之变化特点,可采用指数衰减函数建立单产提升潜力回归模型,以达到间接预测单产之目的。结果表明：1）单产提升潜力对数值与时间t之间具有高度负线性相关关系,适宜建立指数回归模型;2）回归模型V_q-V_t=e^{-0.009 5t+9.464 7}拟合优度R²=0.973 1,在0.01置信水平上回归显著;3）预测模型反映出了单产提升潜力的有限性和衰减性,即单产潜力对单产水平的限制性,模型理论诠释清晰;4）利用河南1978—2000年的单产数据作为样本建立预测模型,用样本以外2001—2015年的实际单产作为观测值,对预测单产进行模型预测检验,结果表明该模型预测单产绝对误差均值为129.15 kg/hm²,仅为现有方法的0.17~0.82倍,且误差平稳,适宜于单产中长期预测;5）预测得河南2020、2025、2030年的平均单产分别为6 375、6 765、7 155 kg/hm²,年均增幅为85.20~74.55 kg/hm²,增速呈逐渐减缓趋势。     

Evaluation of potential genotoxicity of five food dyes using the somatic mutation and recombination test

In this study, different concentrations of five food dyes (amaranth, patent blue, carminic acid, indigotine and erythrosine) have been evaluated for genotoxicity in the Somatic Mutation and Recombination Test (SMART) of Drosophila melanogaster. Standard cross was used in the experiment. Larvae including two linked recessive wing hair mutations were chronically fed at different concentrations of the test compounds in standard Drosophila Instant Medium. Feeding ended with pupation of the surviving larvae. Wings of the emerging adult flies were scored for the presence of spots of mutant cells which can result from either somatic mutation or somatic recombination. For the evaluation of genotoxic effects, the frequencies of spots per wing in the treated series were compared to the control group, which was distilled water. The present study shows that carminic acid and indigotine demonstrated negative results while erythrosine demonstrated inconclusive results. In addition 25 mg mL⁻¹ concentration of patent blue and 12.5, 25 and 50 mg mL⁻¹ concentrations of amaranth demonstrated positive results in the SMART.     

Watershed-based riverine discharge loads and emission factor of perfluorinated surfactants in Korean peninsula

Long-range transport of and exposure to perfluorinated substances (PFSs) strongly depend on their emission mode. In the present study, watershed-based riverine discharge loads and emission factors are estimated for perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorononanoate (PFNA), perfluorohexylsulfonate (PFHxS), and perfluorooctylsulfonate (PFOS) by using spatially distributed data of chemical concentrations together with water flows and a geographic information system (GIS). Average per capita emissions (emission factor, μg capita⁻¹ d⁻¹) are 75 for PFOA, 36 for PFNA, 17 for PFHxS, and 43 for PFOS, which are several times lower than the estimates for Japan and the European continent. A relatively uniform distribution is observed for PFHxS and PFOS emission factors, while elevated values of PFOA and PFNA predominate in one of eight river basins. This may indicate the leading contribution of diffusive sources (e.g. nonpoint source) for PFHxS and PFOS versus the presence of localized point sources for PFOA and PFNA. The lower-upper bound of total riverine loads discharged annually from the Korean peninsula are in the range of 0.53-1.3 tons for PFOA, 0.09-0.60 tons for PFNA, 0.07-0.29 tons for PFHxS, and 0.19-0.73 tons for PFOS, accounting for <1% of global annual emissions. Furthermore, these riverine discharge loads are significantly greater than the discharge loads from a wastewater treatment plant, indicating the necessity of further study of nonpoint sources.