乌鲁木齐-奎屯高等级公路沿线污染气象分析

就乌鲁木齐－奎屯高等级公路沿线的污染气象条件进行分析，为研究道路二侧汽车尾气污染提供必要的参数。     

基于无人机多光谱影像的小微水域水质要素反演

总磷(TP)、悬浮物浓度(SS)、浊度(TUB)3种水质参数可以直接通过遥感反演得到,常用于评价区域水环境的污染状况.以浙江农林大学东湖为研究对像,使用无人机携带多光谱传感器(Mica Sense Red Edge)获取多光谱影像,进而提取16个光谱参数,分别构建东湖水域TP、SS、TUB的反演模型.结果表明:光谱参数V5(NIR 0.770～0.890μm)与TP、SS相关性显著(r分别为0.470、-0.537,p0.05),V4(0.670～0.760μm)与TUB相关性显著(r=0.486,p0.05).在建立的TP反演模型中,指数函数模型精度最高,决定系数R~2为0.7829;在建立的SS、TUB反演模型中,多项式函数模型精度最高,决定系数R~2分别为0.7503、0.7334.经检验,TP、SS、TUB模型估测值与实测值线性拟合曲线的决定系数R~2分别为0.7374、0.8978、0.6726,满足水质要素反演的精度要求.最后利用建立的模型,结合多光谱影像数据,建立了东湖水域各参数的空间分布图,实现了水质参数的可视化,可为小微水域的污染防治提供技术支撑.     

基于遥感影像的木兰溪水质参数反演

水质监测对水环境评价及污染预防至关重要,但地面监测成本高、监测面积有限等,难以满足实时、大范围监测的要求。为了更好地解决该问题,基于遥感影像的空中监测技术越来越得到研究人员的青睐。以木兰溪为研究区,利用和地面监测数据同步的Landsat-8卫星遥感影像数据,对木兰溪的典型水质参数总磷、总氮、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数的反演问题进行研究。首先,根据Landsat-8的水体敏感波段,分别选取总磷、总氮、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数的反演特征波段组合为(b1-b2)/(b2+b3),(b1-b2)/(b3-b4),b2/(b1+b4),b1/b2;其次,利用反演特征波段组合分别构建总磷、总氮、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数浓度的SVR(Support Vector Regression)反演模型,通过IPSO算法对SVR模型的参数进行优选;然后,将IPSO-SVR反演模型和统计回归反演模型、广义回归神经网络(GRNN)反演模型在验证集上进行评估,以平均绝对误差和均方根误差作为评价指标进行对比分析,结果表明IPSO-SVR反演模型的平均绝对误差和均方根误差最小,说明IPSO-SVR反演模型具有较高的精度和较好的实用性...     

基于深度学习的华东地区PM2.5浓度遥感反演

PM_2.5作为大气污染的主要来源,对人类身体健康有着极大的影响.本文提出基于深度学习模型的多要素联合PM_2.5反演方法,以PM_2.5浓度作为真值数据,引入Himawari气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)日数据产品与温度、相对湿度和气压等10个要素作为反演要素.为验证方法的有效性,采用华东地区2016～2018年的数据分季节开展实验,并与传统反演方法进行对比.结果表明,PM_2.5浓度与AOD、降水、风速、高植被覆盖指数呈正相关关系,与矮植被覆盖指数呈负相关关系,与温度、湿度、气压以及DEM的相关性随季节的变化而改变;基于深层神经网络(DNN)反演的PM_2.5精度高于传统的线性和非线性模型,各个季节R²均在0.5以上并且误差较小,其中秋季的反演效果最好R²为0.86,夏季为0.75,冬季为0.613,春季为0.566;模型的可视化结果显示,DNN模型的反演结果更接近地面监测站点插值的PM_2.5浓度分布,分辨率更高且更精确.     

北京地区采暖期SO2熏烟型污染及评估

随着北京城市建设的发展，为了保护环境，北京市的新建生活区均采用集中供热系统。燃烧后的有害气体通过烟排向大气，经过高空稀释后的烟气可以降低污染负荷，但是在某此气象条件下仍然造成了地面局部污染，本文在北京市丰台区一个生活小区的供热系统污染源环境影响评价的基础上，讨论了熏烟污染的发生及危害。     

Direct calculation of likelihood-based benchmark dose levels for quantitative responses

A benchmark dose (BMD) for quantitative responses is a lower confidence limit (LCL) on the effective dose corresponding to a specified risk level r. A commonly adopted method for calculating the BMD is to obtain a pointwise upper confidence curve U(d) on the risk function and then invert this relationship by solving the equation U(d)=r. The solution d is taken to be the BMD. Sciullo et al. (2000) have shown that the coverage achieved by this inversion method is at least as great as the coverage achieved by U (·) but that there is otherwise no general relationship between the two coverage probabilities. The present paper develops a method for direct calculation of the BMD based on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic. It is further shown that the direct method and the inversion method are equivalent when U (·) is also based on the likelihood ratio. Since the direct method is known to be asymptotically correct, it follows that the LR-based inversion method is also asymptotically correct. However, the direct method is computationally faster and easier to program. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted to assess the small sample coverage probabilities of the direct method when responses follow either a normal or a gamma distribution.     

逆温对吴淞工业区大气质量影响个例分析

以吴淞工业区冬夏二次大气质量监测数据和同时期龙华观象台的探空资料为依据,详细地描述了逆温对大气污染物(SO_2和NO_x)时空变化的影响,并阐述了形成这样的空间分布的污染源排放特点和主要贡献源。为环境管理和规划的实施,提供了科学依据。     

When “It depends” amounts to more than simple contingent relationships: Three canonical forms of inversions

Organizational behavior theories can be subject to potential inversions in the nature of the effects expected or described (i.e. an effect inverts from positive to negative or vice versa). Yet, inversions are rarely considered or assessed. We explore three possible canonical inversions: the maximum or minimum point in a quadratic regression model, the point of intersection in disordinal interactions, and the change of slope in a moderated regression model. We describe both the motivation for, and the theoretical and empirical importance of, considering such inversions in theory‐building and testing. We consider common situations in which inversions are misinterpreted empirically and present methods to conduct explorations for potential inversions. Two different cases of errors concerning inversions can occur. In the first case entailing omission, an inversion is occurring but is not observed in the sample. In the second case, researchers wrongly assume an inversion is occurring in their model, yet the prospective inversion would actually occur out of the range of possible values on the focal variable(s), and is thus not significant. We illustrate different types of inversions using simulated examples. Ultimately, we seek to encourage and equip management researchers to identify important theoretical boundary conditions imposed by inversions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

添加剂PEG对共混超滤膜结构和性能的影响

以不同分子量聚乙二醇 (PEG)作为PSf/A共混超滤膜的添加剂 ,测定所制备膜的水通量、截留率 .结果表明 ,膜的水通量随PEG分子量的变化呈现非线性关系 .当PEG分子量为4000时 ,水通量达到最大值115.2mL·(cm²·h)^-1,是不加PEG时的6倍 .通过超滤实验结果以及膜结构的电镜照片的观察 ,研究了PSf/A共混超滤膜体系中PEG作用的规律 .PEG分子量的增加改变了PSf/A铸膜液体系的相平衡关系 ,使铸膜液成为热力学不稳定体系 ,加速了相分离的发生 ;另外 ,PEG分子量的增加提高了铸膜液的粘度 ,引起相分离的延迟,这2种作用影响了膜的最终结构和性能.