中国民航业安全风险监测与仿真研究

根据系统安全的思想,通过对航空安全历史数据的分析和专家经验,从人员、设备设施、环境和组织管理4个方面,提出中国民航机务、空管、飞行、机场4个分系统安全风险监测指标体系,共102个风险因素指标,并合成为27个行业安全风险监测指标。以民航历史数据为样本,建立资源优化神经网络(RON)模型,将安全风险监测指标与中国民航安全指数相联系,分析安全指数的关键影响因素,达到安全管理决策支持的目的。通过建立的风险监测指标体系和RON模型,可以实现民航整个行业、各分系统及单个指标的安全风险监测和预警。     

A Comparison of Single and Multiple Habitat Protocols for Collecting Macroinvertebrates in Wadeable Streams1

Abstract: In 2003, we compared two benthic macroinvertebrate sampling methods that are used for rapid biological assessment of wadeable streams. A single habitat method using kick sampling in riffles and runs was compared to a multiple habitat method that sampled all available habitats in proportion of occurrence. Both methods were performed side‐by‐side at 41 sites in lower gradient streams of the Piedmont and Northern Piedmont ecoregions of the United States, where riffle habitat is less abundant. Differences in sampling methods were examined using similarity indices, two multimetric indices [the family‐level Virginia Stream Condition Index (VSCI) and the species‐level Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII)], their component metrics, and bioassessment endpoints based on each index. Index scores were highly correlated between single and multiple habitat field methods, and sampling method comparability, based on comparison of similarities between and within sampling methods, was particularly high for species level data. The VSCI scores and values of most of its component metrics were not significantly higher for one particular method, but relationships between single and multiple habitat values were highly variable for percent Ephemeroptera, percent chironomids, and percent Plecoptera and Trichoptera (Hydropsychidae excluded). A similar level of variability in the relationship was observed for the MBII and most of its metrics, but Ephemeroptera richness, percent individuals in the dominant five taxa, and Hilsenhoff Biotic Index scores all exhibited differences in values between single and multiple habitat field methods. When applied to multiple habitat samples, the MBII exhibited greater precision, higher index scores, and higher assessment categories than when applied to single habitat samples at the same sites. In streams with limited or no riffle habitats, the multiple habitat method should provide an adequate sample for biological assessment, and at sites with abundant riffle habitat, little difference would be expected between the single and multiple habitat field methods. Thus, in geographic areas with a wide variety of stream types, the multiple habitat method may be more desirable. Even so, the variability in the relationship between single and multiple habitat methods indicates that the data are not interchangeable, and we suggest that any change in sampling method should be accompanied by a recalibration of any existing assessment tool (e.g., multimetric index) with data collected using the new method, regardless of taxonomic level.     

An integrated ecosystem service assessment in an artificial desert oasis of northwestern China

Spatially explicit integrated assessment of ecosystem services is a new and important research field in landscape ecology. The objective of this paper was to develop an integrated process-based modeling method to simulate changes in multiple ecosystem services in 2000–2009 at pixel and regional scales in the Zhangye oasis of northwestern China. Six ecosystem service indicators were selected and quantified using process-based models, including net primary production (NPP), grain production, net oxygen production (NOP), carbon sequestration (CS), water conservation, and soil conservation. Analytical results were as follows: (1) At the oasis scale, NPP, NOP, CS, water conservation, and soil conservation decreased from 2000 to 2009, whereas grain production increased. (2) At the pixel scale, the spatial changes in NPP were similar to those in NOP and CS, but changes in grain production showed the opposite pattern. Water conservation and soil conservation showed somewhat unintuitive spatial patterns. (3) The impact of land-use forms on ecosystem services showed that grazing and township construction both had negative impacts on all services, but that nature conservation and wetland development had positive impacts on all services. This research showed that the integrated modeling can be proposed as an environmental decision-making tool in similar case studies.     

Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability

A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross‐national time‐series analyses (1970–2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, %PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the %PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy.     

丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文时空变化的#br# 定量评估及其生态影响

采用变化范围法（RVA）定量研究了丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文情势的时空变化,评估出汉江干流变化度最大的江段和水文特征指标类别,分析了其对应的生态影响,并针对汉江流域的四大家鱼和水华问题进行了敏感水文指标的变化度分析。结果显示:丹江口大坝蓄水后,汉江下游河道流量是中变化度占主导,比例范围为47～63%;水位是高变化度占主导,襄阳站和皇庄站高变化度的水文指标所占比例远大于其它站点,依次为53% 和75%,各站水位较蓄水前下降了1～2 m。黄家港站高/低流量脉冲出现的频率减少（变化度为-0.49和 -0.62）,且持续的时间变短（变化度为-0.87和 -0.74）。皇庄站和襄阳站流量和水位的月均值和极值较蓄水前减少,逆转次数在高RVA范围内较蓄水前增加（变化度为1.82）。四大家鱼产卵的敏感水文指标出现频率较蓄水前减少,且为中高变化度。下游河道枯水期流量和水位减小,增加了水华发生几率。     

Evaluation of sustainable development strategies and policies: The need for more timely indicators

Indicators are commonly used as tools to identify and highlight socio‐economic and ecological trends and to assess progress towards sustainability. Different quality criteria can be considered for indicators. This paper focuses on the timeliness of indicators used in the evaluation of sustainable development strategies. The analysis is based on indicators included in four assessment reports of the sustainable development strategy of the European Union and three assessment reports of the national strategy of Finland. Furthermore, a web‐based national level indicator portal is analysed. The results show that the timeliness of indicators has generally not improved during the past decade and that indicators used in strategy evaluations have a time lag of approximately two years. It is suggested that more attention should be given to efforts to improve the timeliness of indicators in order to increase the effectiveness of the evaluations. More generally, it is suggested that greater emphasis should be put on the empirical research on actual use of indicators.     

长江上游大型水库群对宜昌站水文情势影响分析

近年来,长江上游已建成一批大型水库,其运行调度必然会对下游的径流产生影响。水文变化指标法(IHA)和水文变化幅度法(RVA)是以水流的量、时间、频率、延时和变化率5种基本特征为基础,对建坝前后的河道水文情势变化进行定量分析的方法。根据长江流域大型水库群建设的实际情况,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法划分了宜昌站建库前后的流量序列,用来评估长江上游大型水库群对宜昌站水文情势的改变情况。M-K相关检验发现,宜昌站的年最小流量已经在2000年发生了显著性地变化;IHA和RVA分析成果表明,宜昌站的水文情势已经发生了中等程度的改变,主要是与小流量相关的一些因子,如1~3月平均流量、最小流量六个因子、低脉冲发生次数及持续时间等;随着以三峡水库为核心的上游大型水库群建成并投入运行,未来长江下游河道径流还将发生进一步的改变。     

Social metrics in the process industry: background,theory and development work

Sustainable development as the leading global development paradigm and sustainability as a cornerstone of modern industrial development have guided this development work on social metrics in the process industry. This study addresses the development of social metrics in the process industry and for metal production, in particular, at the plant level. The developed social indicators are one part of the overall sustainability index that aims to present a balanced and holistic view of plant-level sustainability performance, encompassing information on all different dimensions. This development work was preceded by the benchmarking and review of existing global reporting frameworks, initiatives and the literature. Current indicators of industrial sustainability mainly satisfy the needs of corporate-level management and capital investors. Therefore, plant-level indicators are critically needed to support and fill potential gaps in corporate-level assessments and management with a special emphasis on plant-level sustainability. The purpose of our development work for social indicators was to operationalise the concept of sustainability and associated performance measurement at the plant level. The development of social indicators was carried out through workshops with industry partners. As a joint effort, eight core social indicators and their associated sub-indicators were developed. We also report the results of our benchmarking and review of existing frameworks, initiatives and the literature. The social part of the overall sustainability index provides the information on both in-plant sustainability performance and the direct and indirect impacts of plant-level operations on the surrounding society including various stakeholders, interest groups and citizens.     

Brassinosteroid alleviates phenanthrene and pyrene phytotoxicity by increasing detoxification activity and photosynthesis in tomato

The present study was carried out to investigate the effects of exogenously applied 24-epibrassinolide (BR) on growth, gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence characteristics, lipid peroxidation and antioxidant systems of tomato seedlings grown under different levels (0, 10, 30, 100 and 300 μM) of phenanthrene (PHE) and pyrene (PYR) in hydroponics. A concentration-dependent decrease in growth, photosynthetic pigment contents, net photosynthetic rate (Pn), stomatal conductance (Gs), maximal quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), effective quantum yield of PSII (Φ_PSII), photochemical quenching coefficient (qP) has been observed following PHE and PYR exposure. By contrast, non-photochemical quenching coefficient (NPQ) was increased. PHE was found to induce higher stress than PYR. However, foliar or root application of BR (50 nM and 5 nM, respectively) alleviated all those depressions with a sharp improvement in the activity of photosynthetic machinery. The activities of guaicol peroxidase (GPOD), catalase (CAT), ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and glutathione reductase (GR) as well as content of malondialdehyde (MDA) were increased in a dose-dependent manner under PHE or PYR treatments. Compared with control the highest increments of GPOD, CAT, APX, GR and MDA by PHE/PYR alone treatments were observed following 300 μM concentration, which were 67%, 87%, 53%, 95% and 74% by PHE and 42%, 53%, 30%, 86% and 62% by PYR, respectively. In addition, both reduced glutathione (GSH) and oxidized glutathione (GSSG) were induced by PHE or PYR. Interestingly, BR application in either form further increased enzymatic and non enzymatic antioxidants in tomato roots treated with PHE or PYR. Our results suggest that BR has an anti-stress effect on tomato seedlings contaminated with PHE or PYR and this effect is mainly attributed by increased detoxification activity.     

PM(10)-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: biological indicators, lung cancer risk of realistic receptors and 'source-exposure-effect relationship' under different source scenarios

Cancer has become a critical health issue in the world heritage city Kandy, Sri Lanka. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), one of persistent organic pollutants, in the atmosphere may be a major etiological factor in lung carcinogenicity. Over the very high concentrations of ambient air PAHs reported in Kandy, this paper is focused on setting priorities to control human exposure to PAHs in prevention of cancer.On re-appraisal of the classical indicator benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) for atmospheric PAHs-related carcinogenicity, B[a]P failed to reflect the toxicity completely and may not be the sole indicator for risk assessment studies in complex multi-sourced urban environments. The excess lifetime lung cancer risks of atmospheric PAHs with ‘less than lifetime exposure’ were assessed based on both ‘B[a]P toxic equivalents’ and ‘B[a]P surrogate epidemiological’ approach of risk quantification, over emissions characterized urban, suburban, and rural areas of Kandy. In urban heavy traffic areas, PAH-related additional cancer burden has been 942 million⁻¹ over 30 y of exposure. Over the whole study area, ∑p-PAHs show strong correlation (r = 0.8) to the predicted risk levels. While the urban and suburban predicted cancer risk levels could not show significant correlation to their emission sources indicating the real complexity in mega urban environments, the rural lung cancer risk levels correlated perfectly with the source, firewood combustion.Policy decisions on environment and health could be based on established correlations among ‘emission sources-exposures-health effects’. The priority for “analysis of options and policy formulation to reduce inhalation PAHs exposure of population in Kandy” was considered “moderate to high”.