广元市建设川陕甘结合部生态强市的思考

通过对广元市生态市的建设现状、指导思想、奋斗目标、建设路径进行深入分析,提出建设生态强市的可行性措施,并从法制、组织、资金、技术方面提供保障。     

Framing environmental indicators: moving from causal chains to causal networks

In recent years, there has been a boom in environmental assessment reports utilizing environmental indicators. Most of these publications are based on the casual chain frameworks (e.g., Pressure–State–Response (PSR), Driving force–State–Response (DSR), and Driving force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR)). These frameworks have made an important contribution by emphasising the importance of causality. However, the reliance on simple uni-directional chains is at the same time not very conducive to a good understanding of the complexity of the processes behind environmental indicators. This limits the usefulness of these frameworks for environmental (impact) assessments. In this paper we propose an enhanced DPSIR (eDPSIR) framework for environmental indicators that takes inter-relations of indicators into account by relying on the use of causal networks rather than causal chains. It will be shown how the concept of causal networks can increase insight into the inter-relation of environmental issues and associated indicators, can facilitate the identification of key indicators for particular kinds of questions, and can provide a useful first step to the establishment of dose–response functions. Working with causal networks can contribute to more appropriate environmental policies and better management decisions.     

Indicators of perceived naturalness as drivers of landscape preference

The concept of naturalness is one of the more studied concepts in landscape preference research and describes how close a landscape is to a perceived natural state. In this study we explored the relationship between landscape preference and three landscape indicators of naturalness (level of succession, number of woodland patches and shape index of edges). We used computer-generated visualisations of a hypothetical landscape containing pasture and broadleaved woodland. In the landscape simulations we altered the values of the naturalness indicators between the levels of low, medium and high, creating 27 different visualisations. The survey was distributed as an on-line survey in seven different languages and obtained 703 respondents. The study showed a strong relationship with preference for both the level of succession and number of woodland patches, and a weaker relationship with shape index of edges. The two demographic factors which were shown to contribute most to the formation of preference were gender and having a landscape related profession. The results suggest that the selected indicators are more important drivers of preference than demographic factors.     

中国民航业安全风险监测与仿真研究

根据系统安全的思想,通过对航空安全历史数据的分析和专家经验,从人员、设备设施、环境和组织管理4个方面,提出中国民航机务、空管、飞行、机场4个分系统安全风险监测指标体系,共102个风险因素指标,并合成为27个行业安全风险监测指标。以民航历史数据为样本,建立资源优化神经网络(RON)模型,将安全风险监测指标与中国民航安全指数相联系,分析安全指数的关键影响因素,达到安全管理决策支持的目的。通过建立的风险监测指标体系和RON模型,可以实现民航整个行业、各分系统及单个指标的安全风险监测和预警。     

高危作业监测预警系统的总体设计

为探索高危作业监测预警系统的建立,对风险监测预警系统进行了系统研究,在研究总结其基本原理的基础上,从理论上提出筛选高危作业监测预警指标的原则、要求和方法,进而提出高危作业监测预警的核心技术指标体系的建立及其基本结构和运行模式的总体设计思路,首次提出职业危害控制的先行指标、同步指标和滞后指标,在高危作业监测预警系统中建立信息咨询系统、信息监测系统、风险评估与诊断系统、预防控制与应急救援决策系统等子系统和高危作业监测预警系统基本结构与运行模式。该系统可以科学判断出当前政策、法规、标准、规划,经济贸易的影响及相应需采取的政策调整,在控制、检测、评价、诊断、防护等领域应重点开展的关键技术研究,当前机构、人员、设施、财力等方面的能力建设要求,分析政府、企业、劳动者应采取的主要行为干预。本文逻辑清晰、系统性强、内容全面,可为进一步开展职业病防治工作提供前沿考虑。     

Externalities of Fugitive Dust

It is known that fugitive dust can cause human health and environmental problems, alone or in combination with other air pollutants. These problems are referred to as ‘external costs’ that have been traditionally ignored. However, there is a growing interest towards quantifying externalities to assist policy and decision-making. With this in mind, the present study aimed at discussing the environmental regulations that deal with fugitive dust, the impact of fugitive dust on human health and global climate system, and the available methods for calculating fugitive dust externalities. The damage cost associated with human health and global environmental problems was predicted based on the environmental strategy priority model. The damage cost estimated by the model ranged from 40 to 374 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust with a mean value of 120 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust. It was also found that PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ have contributed to about 60% and 36% of the estimated damage cost, respectively. The remaining 4% was attributed to both nitrate and sulfate aerosols.     

丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文时空变化的#br# 定量评估及其生态影响

采用变化范围法（RVA）定量研究了丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文情势的时空变化,评估出汉江干流变化度最大的江段和水文特征指标类别,分析了其对应的生态影响,并针对汉江流域的四大家鱼和水华问题进行了敏感水文指标的变化度分析。结果显示:丹江口大坝蓄水后,汉江下游河道流量是中变化度占主导,比例范围为47～63%;水位是高变化度占主导,襄阳站和皇庄站高变化度的水文指标所占比例远大于其它站点,依次为53% 和75%,各站水位较蓄水前下降了1～2 m。黄家港站高/低流量脉冲出现的频率减少（变化度为-0.49和 -0.62）,且持续的时间变短（变化度为-0.87和 -0.74）。皇庄站和襄阳站流量和水位的月均值和极值较蓄水前减少,逆转次数在高RVA范围内较蓄水前增加（变化度为1.82）。四大家鱼产卵的敏感水文指标出现频率较蓄水前减少,且为中高变化度。下游河道枯水期流量和水位减小,增加了水华发生几率。     

An integrated ecosystem service assessment in an artificial desert oasis of northwestern China

Spatially explicit integrated assessment of ecosystem services is a new and important research field in landscape ecology. The objective of this paper was to develop an integrated process-based modeling method to simulate changes in multiple ecosystem services in 2000–2009 at pixel and regional scales in the Zhangye oasis of northwestern China. Six ecosystem service indicators were selected and quantified using process-based models, including net primary production (NPP), grain production, net oxygen production (NOP), carbon sequestration (CS), water conservation, and soil conservation. Analytical results were as follows: (1) At the oasis scale, NPP, NOP, CS, water conservation, and soil conservation decreased from 2000 to 2009, whereas grain production increased. (2) At the pixel scale, the spatial changes in NPP were similar to those in NOP and CS, but changes in grain production showed the opposite pattern. Water conservation and soil conservation showed somewhat unintuitive spatial patterns. (3) The impact of land-use forms on ecosystem services showed that grazing and township construction both had negative impacts on all services, but that nature conservation and wetland development had positive impacts on all services. This research showed that the integrated modeling can be proposed as an environmental decision-making tool in similar case studies.     

Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability

A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross‐national time‐series analyses (1970–2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, %PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the %PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy.