基于贝叶斯网络的物流无人机失效风险评估*

为降低城市物流无人机（UAV）失效坠落风险,通过考虑其运行环境和系统故障等因素的影响,以城市物流无人机运行数据为基础,从系统故障、运行环境和人为因素3方面提取失效诱因;分析物流无人机失效模式,并构建意外坠落事故的贝叶斯网络;基于所建网络和失效诱因发生概率分别计算不同工况下意外坠落事故及各中间事件概率,并基于网络拓扑结构展开反向推理,推演事故的主要失效诱因。结果表明:物流无人机正常运行时发生安全事故的概率为6.54×10-3;其中,电池电量不足、桨叶失效和电池故障是坠落事故的主要诱因,计算结果可为无人机运行安全风险防控提供依据。     

考虑结构极限状态随机性的多维易损性分析

本文同时考虑结构在地震激励下响应的随机性和极限状态的随机性,将概率-凸集混合模型应用于结构的多维易损性分析。以最大层间位移、最大层加速度作为反映结构性能和非结构性能的两种工程需求参数,并视为符合对数正态分布的随机变量,两种需求参数的阈值被视为非概率凸集变量,分别建立阈值的椭球模型和区间模型,建立同时包含凸集变量和概率变量的二维联合性能极限状态方程;根据凸集模型和概率模型之间的相容性,提出一种混合模型下基于克里金模型的蒙特卡洛法用于求解超越概率的上、下界,得到反映超越概率区间的易损性曲线。研究表明:区间模型建立的易损性曲线较为保守;在罕遇地震作用下,不考虑阈值随机性会会低估结构的抗震能力。     

考虑设备跌落的天然气计量站失效后果计算方法

天然气计量站阀门多且检定流程中频繁使用桁车,常规天然气站场的失效后果计算方法难以评估由此带来的影响及后果。为此,在API 581标准基础上,考虑阀门截断作用对机械损伤事故的影响,选取管段组储气量为最大天然气泄漏量,并以动量定理为依据,研究了桁车失效所引发的设备跌落事故,建立了潜在影响面积计算模型;将影响面积内损伤的管段及设备、泄漏的天然气、伤亡的人员等折算为经济损失,形成了考虑设备跌落的天然气计量站失效后果计算方法;将该方法应用于某天然气计量站。研究结果表明:设备跌落事故损失金额为机械损伤事故的3倍;当考虑设备跌落事故时,管段风险等级由低级上升为中低级。研究结果可为天然气计量站失效后果评价提供理论支撑。     

氙灯曝露试验中标准物质的用途及使用方法

本文介绍了氙灯曝露试验中应用的主要标准物质,它们的用途及使用方法,着重介绍了蓝色羊毛标准、聚苯乙烯标准塑料片的应用.     

预掘回撤通道末采围岩破坏机制研究

为保证工作面安全高效回撤,通过理论分析及现场观测法,研究综采工作面末采期间回撤通道围岩应力分布及破坏特征,提出垛架支撑力控制顶板围岩破坏机制及方法,得到垛架最小支撑力计算方法.结果表明:回撤通道围岩集中应力与工作面前方支承压力逐步叠加,导致剩余煤柱由两侧向中部逐渐破坏,当两侧破坏区连通时,煤柱上方直接顶跨距增加为原来的...     

基于梯度塑性理论的岩石等间距破坏分析

等间距断裂属应变局部化范畴,这是传统的宏观连续介质理论无法预测和解释的。应变梯度理论是传统塑性理论的推广和完善,本文在屈服函数中引用应变梯度项分析了岩石等间距破坏问题。首先建立了平面应力状态下应变梯度塑性理论模型,通过解析岩样边界在水平压应力作用下的塑性应变场,得出其曲面的分布具有等间距规律,其网络的分布格局及幅值大小受岩样尺度、边界应力、降模量等多种因素的影响。这一结论不仅与一些文献结果相吻合,而且说明用梯度塑性理论能够近似描述等间距现象。本文对深入研究等间距断裂提供了一个新思路。     

城市天然气管网预警系统的研究与实现

随着城市天然气管网密度加大,由于天然气管理手段滞后导致的天然气泄漏事故急剧增加。基于GIS技术并结合燃气管网定量风险分析(QRA)模型,提出利用定量风险分析模型实现管网风险预警的方法。结合C#+ArcEngine编程技术,开发城市天然气管网预警系统,实现管网失效率分析、燃气事故扩散模拟、火灾及爆炸模拟、个人风险等值线绘制、社会风险分析等功能,能够进行区域性事故后果预测、个人风险和社会风险计算、安全性评价及应急预案编制等项工作。     

HAZOP分析中LOPA的应用研究

通过分析危险与可操作性研究(HAZOP)方法的不足和保护层分析(LOPA)方法的功能,提出将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中,能进一步提高HAZOP的事故预防能力和丰富HAZOP的分析结果。介绍LOPA基本方法,阐述LOPA融入HAZOP的机理、衔接关系及分析步骤,并通过一个化工工艺流程危险性分析实例说明LOPA的作用及如何将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中。结果表明:在HAZOP分析中融入LOPA方法,能实现对现有保护措施的可靠性进行量化评估,确定其消除或降低风险的能力,从而寻求是否需要附加减少风险的安全保护措施。     

Contamination in Ontario farmstead domestic wells and its association with agriculture:: 1. Results from drinking water wells

Groundwater provides about 30% of water requirements in Ontario, but farm families depend almost entirely on private wells. Major potential contaminants on farms are nitrate (NO₃⁻), pathogenic microorganisms, pesticides and petroleum derivatives. A survey of farm drinking-water wells was conducted throughout the Province of Ontario, Canada, in 1991 and 1992 and tested for these contaminants. The main objectives of the survey were to determine the quality and safety of drinking water for farm families, and determine the effect of agricultural management on groundwater quality at a provincial scale. Four farm wells were chosen in each township where >50% of the land area was used for agricultural production. Elsewhere one well per township was usually sampled. Within each township the types of farming activity and dominant soils were additional criteria for selection. The network comprised 1292 of the estimated 500,000 water-wells in Ontario, and the study conformed to a stratified random survey. A subset of 160 wells, chosen by farm type, soil, and the presence or absence of a fuel storage tank, was investigated for the presence of petroleum derivatives: benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene. About 40% of farm wells tested contained one or more of the target contaminants above the maximum acceptable concentration; 34% of wells had more than the maximum acceptable number of coliform bacteria, 14% contained NO₃⁻-N concentrations above 10 mg l⁻¹ limit and about 7% were contaminated with both bacteria and NO₃⁻. Only six wells contained pesticide residues above the interim maximum acceptable concentration (IMAC), but pesticides were detected in 7% of wells in winter and in 11% in summer. No wells contained detectable petroleum derivatives. These results for NO₃⁻ contamination were not significantly different from those reported for a survey of Ontario wells for the period 1950–1954, but the frequency of contamination by Escherichia coli was greater in the present study. None of the point sources investigated contributed significantly to the NO₃⁻ contamination. The percentage of wells contaminated by coliform bacteria decreased significantly with increasing separation of the well from the feedlot or exercise yard on livestock farms. A full statistical model including the type of well construction, depth, age and soil hydrologic group was developed to describe the frequency of NO₃⁻ contamination.     

Transport of reactive colloids and contaminants in groundwater: effect of nonlinear kinetic interactions

Transport of reactive colloids in groundwater may enhance the transport of contaminants in groundwater. Often, the interpretation of results of transport experiments is not a simple task as both reactions of colloids with the solid matrix and reactions of contaminants with the solid matrix and mobile and immobile colloids may be time dependent and nonlinear. Further colloid transport properties may differ from solute transport properties. In this paper, a one-dimensional model for coupled and contaminant in a porous medium (COLTRAP) is presented together with simulation results. Calculated breakthrough curves (BTC's) during contamination and decontamination show systematically the effect of nonlinear and kinetic interactions on contaminant transport in the presence of reactive colloids, and the effect of colloid transport properties that differ from solute transport properties. It is shown that in case of linear kinetic reactions, the rate of exchange of mobile and immobile colloids have a large impact on the shape of BTC's even if the solid matrix is saturated with respect to colloids. BTC's during the contamination and decontamination phase have identical shapes in this case. Moreover, the slow reactions of contaminants and colloids may lead to unretarded breakthrough of contaminants. Independent of reaction rates, nonlinear reactions lead to BTC's that are steeper during contamination than in the linear case. A characteristic aspect of nonlinear sorption is that shapes of BTC's differ during the contamination and decontamination phase. It has been observed that shapes of some of the simulated adsorption and desorption curves are similar as shapes found in experiments reported in literature. This stresses the importance of incorporating both kinetics and nonlinearity in models for coupled colloid and contaminant transport and the capability of COLTRAP to interpret experimental results. Finally, to figure out whether nonlinear processes play a role, it is very important to consider both contamination and decontamination in transport experiments.