配电设备的风险评估与状态检修决策方法

针对当前配电设备采用的定期检修方式未将可靠性与经济性综合考虑的问题,提出1种基于风险评估结果确定配电设备状态检修决策的方法。首先,根据配电设备健康状态评估结果计算配电设备实时健康指数,利用指数模型对配电设备的实时故障率进行计算;然后,采用最小路法计算配网中所有设备的平均实时故障率,并结合停电时用户损失严重度、配电设备损失严重度和环境损失严重度确定配电设备故障后果严重度;最后,利用风险偏好型效用函数量化计算配电设备的经济运行风险水平,计算各配电设备的相对风险值,并以相对风险值为指标确定各配电设备的状态检修策略。结合算例对所提的方法进行验证,结果表明该方法合理有效。     

A stochastic weather generation model for Alaska

A specific problem encountered in ecosystem-level simulation of Arctic ecosystems is the depth and extent of the driving variable record. Often, climate records are of short duration, gathered at locations different from the area to be simulated, or do not contain all the variables required by a given model. This paper addresses this problem for ecosystem simulation in Alaska with the development of a weather generator. The generator, called WGENAL, is based on the WGEN climate generator developed and validated in the 48 conterminous states. Because of the extreme variability of weather in Alaska that is not accommodated by the statistical metrics in the earlier model, a new climate generator was developed. WGENAL generates daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation, and wind run. Precipitation is generated using a Markov chain-gamma model. A two-parameter gamma distribution is used to generate wind run. Temperatures and solar radiation are generated using procedures developed in the earlier study. Validation of the generator shows it provides adequate diurnal and seasonal weather records for Fairbanks. Other comparisons of synthetic weather with observed weather for sites north of the Brooks Range in Alaska are also within the error of the original data.     

Recycling disposable cups into paper plastic composites

The majority of disposable cups are made from paper plastic laminates (PPL) which consist of high quality cellulose fibre with a thin internal polyethylene coating. There are limited recycling options for PPLs and this has contributed to disposable cups becoming a high profile, problematic waste. In this work disposable cups have been shredded to form PPL flakes and these have been used to reinforce polypropylene to form novel paper plastic composites (PPCs). The PPL flakes and polypropylene were mixed, extruded, pelletised and injection moulded at low temperatures to prevent degradation of the cellulose fibres. The level of PPL flake addition and the use of a maleated polyolefin coupling agent to enhance interfacial adhesion have been investigated. Samples have been characterised using tensile testing, dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and thermogravimetric analysis. Use of a coupling agent allows composites containing 40 wt.% of PPL flakes to increase tensile strength of PP by 50% to 30 MPa. The Young modulus also increases from 1 to 2.5 GPa and the work to fracture increases by a factor of 5. The work demonstrates that PPL disposable cups have potential to be beneficially reused as reinforcement in novel polypropylene composites.     

Calibrating climate change policies: the causes and consequences of sustained under-reaction

We apply insights from the recent literature on disproportionate policy reactions to the case of climate change policy-making. We show when and why climate change exhibits features of a sustained under-reaction: Governments may react to concerns about climate change not through substantive change but by efforts to manage blame strategically. As long as they can avoid blame for potential negative policy outcomes policy-makers can act to deny problems, or implement only small-scale or symbolic reforms. While this pattern may change as climate change problems worsen and public recognition of the issue and what can be done about it alters, opportunities to manage blame will still exist. Governments will only revert to more substantive interventions when attempts to fatalistically frame the problem as unavoidable fail in the face of increased public visibility.     

Multi-hazard failure assessment of atmospheric storage tanks during hurricanes

Hurricane as one of the most destructive natural hazards can make a devastating impact on the industrial equipment, especially atmospheric storage tanks, leading to the release of stored chemicals and disastrous safety and environmental issues. These catastrophic consequences are caused not only by strong winds but also by the torrential rainfall and inundating floods. The objective of this study is to present a risk-based methodology for assessing and reducing the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks to hurricanes. Considering the shell buckling, flotation, sliding, and roof sinking as dominant failure modes of atmospheric storage tanks during hurricanes, Bayesian network (BN) has been employed to combine the failure modes while considering their conditional dependencies. The probability updating feature of the developed BN was employed to indicate that the flood is the most critical hazard during hurricanes while the impact of wind and rainfall cannot be neglected. Extending the developed BN to an influence diagram, the cost-benefit filling of storage tanks with water prior to the advent of hurricanes was shown as a viable measure for reducing the damage probability. The results show that the proposed methodology can be used as an effective decision support tool for assessing and reducing the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks to natural hazards.     

机载设备快速减压试验技术研究

近几年国内外相继发生了多起民航客机因机舱失压而造成的事故,产生了十分严重的后果.本文从机载设备环境适应性的角度出发,分析了快速减压环境产生的原因、失效模式、失效机理,并提出了预防措施;对几种快速减压试验标准进行了对比分析,提出改进建议.最后介绍了快速减压环境模拟技术.     

汶川地震中小鱼洞大桥的变形破坏特征与机理

在现场调查的基础上,研究了汶川地震中小鱼洞大桥的变形破坏现象,总结了变形破坏的特点,分析了发生变形破坏的机理。小鱼洞大桥在汶川地震中表现出复杂多样的变形破坏现象,包括梁体塌落,引线段断裂、形成断坎,边坡坍塌,路面纵向拉裂,盖梁与桥台之间右行错动,伸缩缝拉开并发生左行错动和桥台搭板移位等。小鱼洞大桥变形破坏的特点主要表现为挤压与拉张现象并存、左行与右行现象并存和水平向振动与竖向振动并存。地震时小鱼洞大桥受到了复杂的力学作用,不仅有水平挤压作用,而且有竖向和水平向的振动作用以及水平剪切作用。     

废塑料催化裂解烟气中污染物分析与解决方案

以河南某公司研发的日处理2t废塑料的催化裂解中试装置以例,对催化裂解烟气中污染物进行了监测与分析,认为裂解烟气中主要污染物为氯化氢、氮氧化物、苯并芘、苯及颗粒物,并提出了采用碱吸收+电捕焦油器+活性炭吸附+脉冲袋式收尘的环保解决方案.     

基于JC法的RBI通用失效概率修正模型研究

基于风险的检测技术失效概率的分析始于同类设备的失效频率数据库,然后通过设备修正因子和管理系统评价因子来修正这些同类频率。针对RBI的不足,结合可靠度理论,分析均值一次二阶矩法在实际应用过程中局限性,应用基于JC法的通用失效概率计算模型完成设备失效概率的修正。该方法适合任何概率分布下的情况,可以避免统计数据正态分布一刀切的缺点。     

某船用唇形密封失效因素试验及仿真模拟研究

目的 针对船用唇形密封使用过程中的唇口破坏问题,研究唇形密封失效影响因素及唇形密封应力、位移、接触压力分布特性。方法 模拟实船齿轮箱输入结构搭建试验台,进行密封失效因素分析,并利用有限元分析软件建立旋转唇形密封的二维轴对称模型,分析过盈量及橡胶本体材料参数对唇形密封应力、位移、唇尖接触压力分布的影响。结果 除密封材料及密封接触应力因素不确定外,其他所列因素几乎均未发生泄漏,因此进一步对不同材料及接触特性进行有限元分析。研究表明,3种材料中,2号材料的Von Mises应力值最大,且不管何种材料,随着过盈量增加,唇尖应力沿着参考线先增大后、逐渐减小、再增大,并呈现非对称分布,过盈量超过0.4 mm时,唇形密封的最大应力出现在骨架与橡胶本体接触圆角处。随着过盈量的增加,3种材料唇尖最大接触压力的变化趋势不同,最大Von Mises 接触应力逐渐增大,且过盈量在0.6 mm之后增速较快,唇尖接触线位置接触压力先减小、后逐渐增大,拐点在接触线位置0.25~0.3 mm处。结论 油温、油压、安装方式、偏心量、转速对于唇形密封失效的影响较小。材料属性与过盈量都会引起唇形密封Von Mises应力及唇尖接触压力发生较大变化,只是影响应力峰值大小不同,材料属性对于唇形密封本体位移的影响较小,过盈量会引起位移较大变化,且会引起最大应力位置变化,同时接触线接触应力与接触压力大小没有相关性。对于唇形密封安装来说,在过盈量为0.8 mm左右时较为合理。