考虑结构极限状态随机性的多维易损性分析

本文同时考虑结构在地震激励下响应的随机性和极限状态的随机性,将概率-凸集混合模型应用于结构的多维易损性分析。以最大层间位移、最大层加速度作为反映结构性能和非结构性能的两种工程需求参数,并视为符合对数正态分布的随机变量,两种需求参数的阈值被视为非概率凸集变量,分别建立阈值的椭球模型和区间模型,建立同时包含凸集变量和概率变量的二维联合性能极限状态方程;根据凸集模型和概率模型之间的相容性,提出一种混合模型下基于克里金模型的蒙特卡洛法用于求解超越概率的上、下界,得到反映超越概率区间的易损性曲线。研究表明:区间模型建立的易损性曲线较为保守;在罕遇地震作用下,不考虑阈值随机性会会低估结构的抗震能力。     

配电设备的风险评估与状态检修决策方法

针对当前配电设备采用的定期检修方式未将可靠性与经济性综合考虑的问题,提出1种基于风险评估结果确定配电设备状态检修决策的方法。首先,根据配电设备健康状态评估结果计算配电设备实时健康指数,利用指数模型对配电设备的实时故障率进行计算;然后,采用最小路法计算配网中所有设备的平均实时故障率,并结合停电时用户损失严重度、配电设备损失严重度和环境损失严重度确定配电设备故障后果严重度;最后,利用风险偏好型效用函数量化计算配电设备的经济运行风险水平,计算各配电设备的相对风险值,并以相对风险值为指标确定各配电设备的状态检修策略。结合算例对所提的方法进行验证,结果表明该方法合理有效。     

施工过程中人因差错控制效率分析

以一个钢筋砼单筋梁受弯构件正截面承载力失效概率为例,通过数值模拟发现:检查抽样率为100%的首次检查对控制人因差错非常有效,提高取样率可以有效减少和降低人因差错的发生及其影响程度,但随检查次数增加检查效率直线下降。当对各种工序进行比较细致的检查时,适当提高结构参数设计值可有效防止由较难检查出来的微小人因差错引起的结构失效。显然,质检方法、检查次数、取样率和提高结构参数设计值对人因差错控制效率的提高是十分重要的;人因差错控制效率与检查人力、物力投入成正比。上述结论对合理控制施工过程中人因差错的方案选择具有一定的现实意义。     

油气长输管道定量风险评价

管道风险评价普遍采用以Kent打分法为代表的定性方法,笔者提出了一种新方法,即定量风险评价(QRA),采用基于管道失效历史数据库和已有成熟的数值模型,进行管道失效概率分析和失效后果分析,并以此方法在某输气管道上进行了验证,最后得到管段的绝对风险和人口密集段的个人风险,并进行了风险预测。研究表明,QRA受人员主观判断影响较小,计算方法科学合理,结果量化,对进行检测与维护维修资源的分配具有很好的指导意义。     

高陡岩质边坡抗震稳定性的三维有限元分析

岩质边坡在地震作用下稳定性的计算一般采用拟静力法和有限单元法,拟静力法因应用简便而得到大量应用,至今广泛应用于边坡的抗震计算。建立了某溢洪道引渠左侧整体边坡三维有限元模型,选用ADINA软件并采用拟静力法对三维模型进行了抗震稳定性计算和分析,结合有限元分析的结果,提出溢洪道引渠左侧整体边坡抗震措施和建议。     

Transport of reactive colloids and contaminants in groundwater: effect of nonlinear kinetic interactions

Transport of reactive colloids in groundwater may enhance the transport of contaminants in groundwater. Often, the interpretation of results of transport experiments is not a simple task as both reactions of colloids with the solid matrix and reactions of contaminants with the solid matrix and mobile and immobile colloids may be time dependent and nonlinear. Further colloid transport properties may differ from solute transport properties. In this paper, a one-dimensional model for coupled and contaminant in a porous medium (COLTRAP) is presented together with simulation results. Calculated breakthrough curves (BTC's) during contamination and decontamination show systematically the effect of nonlinear and kinetic interactions on contaminant transport in the presence of reactive colloids, and the effect of colloid transport properties that differ from solute transport properties. It is shown that in case of linear kinetic reactions, the rate of exchange of mobile and immobile colloids have a large impact on the shape of BTC's even if the solid matrix is saturated with respect to colloids. BTC's during the contamination and decontamination phase have identical shapes in this case. Moreover, the slow reactions of contaminants and colloids may lead to unretarded breakthrough of contaminants. Independent of reaction rates, nonlinear reactions lead to BTC's that are steeper during contamination than in the linear case. A characteristic aspect of nonlinear sorption is that shapes of BTC's differ during the contamination and decontamination phase. It has been observed that shapes of some of the simulated adsorption and desorption curves are similar as shapes found in experiments reported in literature. This stresses the importance of incorporating both kinetics and nonlinearity in models for coupled colloid and contaminant transport and the capability of COLTRAP to interpret experimental results. Finally, to figure out whether nonlinear processes play a role, it is very important to consider both contamination and decontamination in transport experiments.     

Contamination in Ontario farmstead domestic wells and its association with agriculture:: 1. Results from drinking water wells

Groundwater provides about 30% of water requirements in Ontario, but farm families depend almost entirely on private wells. Major potential contaminants on farms are nitrate (NO₃⁻), pathogenic microorganisms, pesticides and petroleum derivatives. A survey of farm drinking-water wells was conducted throughout the Province of Ontario, Canada, in 1991 and 1992 and tested for these contaminants. The main objectives of the survey were to determine the quality and safety of drinking water for farm families, and determine the effect of agricultural management on groundwater quality at a provincial scale. Four farm wells were chosen in each township where >50% of the land area was used for agricultural production. Elsewhere one well per township was usually sampled. Within each township the types of farming activity and dominant soils were additional criteria for selection. The network comprised 1292 of the estimated 500,000 water-wells in Ontario, and the study conformed to a stratified random survey. A subset of 160 wells, chosen by farm type, soil, and the presence or absence of a fuel storage tank, was investigated for the presence of petroleum derivatives: benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene. About 40% of farm wells tested contained one or more of the target contaminants above the maximum acceptable concentration; 34% of wells had more than the maximum acceptable number of coliform bacteria, 14% contained NO₃⁻-N concentrations above 10 mg l⁻¹ limit and about 7% were contaminated with both bacteria and NO₃⁻. Only six wells contained pesticide residues above the interim maximum acceptable concentration (IMAC), but pesticides were detected in 7% of wells in winter and in 11% in summer. No wells contained detectable petroleum derivatives. These results for NO₃⁻ contamination were not significantly different from those reported for a survey of Ontario wells for the period 1950–1954, but the frequency of contamination by Escherichia coli was greater in the present study. None of the point sources investigated contributed significantly to the NO₃⁻ contamination. The percentage of wells contaminated by coliform bacteria decreased significantly with increasing separation of the well from the feedlot or exercise yard on livestock farms. A full statistical model including the type of well construction, depth, age and soil hydrologic group was developed to describe the frequency of NO₃⁻ contamination.     

高应变率环境下材料的失效机理研究

采用双层约束爆炸方法对高应变率环境下材料的失效模式及其影响因素进行了研究。结果表明：材料存在拉伸断裂和绝热剪切断裂两种模式。碳含量越高,材料对绝热剪切越敏感;同种材料的淬、回火类组织比正火类组织绝热剪切敏感性高。材料的屈导比哕决定了材料的失效模式,哕越大,材料越倾向于以绝热剪切模式失效。     

HAZOP分析中LOPA的应用研究

通过分析危险与可操作性研究(HAZOP)方法的不足和保护层分析(LOPA)方法的功能,提出将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中,能进一步提高HAZOP的事故预防能力和丰富HAZOP的分析结果。介绍LOPA基本方法,阐述LOPA融入HAZOP的机理、衔接关系及分析步骤,并通过一个化工工艺流程危险性分析实例说明LOPA的作用及如何将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中。结果表明:在HAZOP分析中融入LOPA方法,能实现对现有保护措施的可靠性进行量化评估,确定其消除或降低风险的能力,从而寻求是否需要附加减少风险的安全保护措施。     

城市天然气管网预警系统的研究与实现

随着城市天然气管网密度加大,由于天然气管理手段滞后导致的天然气泄漏事故急剧增加。基于GIS技术并结合燃气管网定量风险分析(QRA)模型,提出利用定量风险分析模型实现管网风险预警的方法。结合C#+ArcEngine编程技术,开发城市天然气管网预警系统,实现管网失效率分析、燃气事故扩散模拟、火灾及爆炸模拟、个人风险等值线绘制、社会风险分析等功能,能够进行区域性事故后果预测、个人风险和社会风险计算、安全性评价及应急预案编制等项工作。