PUF大气被动采样技术对POPs的采样计算

随着《斯德哥尔摩公约》的实施,大气中持久性有机污染物(POPs)的大气被动采样(PAS)观测技术得到了快速发展,相比于传统大气主动采样技术,PAS技术具有明显的优势。以应用最为广泛的聚氨酯软性泡沫材料大气被动采样(PUF-PAS)为例,重点阐述和讨论了3种通过大气被动采样技术来计算污染物在空气中的浓度的方法,并对其采样原理和发展趋势进行了简要介绍。     

Diversity of antibiotic resistance genes and encoding ribosomal protection proteins gene in livestock waste polluted environment

The rapid development and increase of antibiotic resistance are global phenomena resulting from the extensive use of antibiotics in human clinics and animal feeding operations. Antibiotics can promote the occurrence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), which can be transferred horizontally to humans and animals through water and the food chain. In this study, the presence and abundance of ARGs in livestock waste was monitored by quantitative PCR. A diverse set of bacteria and tetracycline resistance genes encoding ribosomal protection proteins (RPPs) from three livestock farms and a river were analyzed through denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). The abundance of sul(I) was 10³ to 10⁵ orders of magnitude higher than that of sul(II). Among 11 tet-ARGs, the most abundant was tet(O). The results regarding bacterial diversity indicated that the presence of antibiotics might have an evident impact on bacterial diversity at every site, particularly at the investigated swine producer. The effect of livestock waste on the bacterial diversity of soil was stronger than that of water. Furthermore, a sequencing analysis showed that tet(M) exhibited two genotypes, while the other RPPs-encoding genes exhibited at least three genotypes. This study showed that various ARGs and RPPs-encoding genes are particularly widespread among livestock.     

基于ACF-AMDF的气井环空液面回波特征提取方法

为了精确有效地提取声波法检测气井环空液位的回波周期,在分析环空中测试波的传播特征及基音周期检测的基础上,提出1种基于检测信号短时自相关函数(ACF)及平均幅度差函数(AMDF)的液面回波周期提取方法;利用自主搭建的室内模拟实验系统开展了不同初始环空压力下环空液位检测实验;对检测信号进行中心削波处理并计算ACF/AMDF,提取出液面回波周期并与理论计算值对比分析;同时分析了现场环空液位检测信号,提取其回波周期。研究结果表明:提出的新方法能有效地用于提取环空液面回波周期;室内实验中,该方法最大误差绝对值为1.54%;该方法能够有效抑制液面回波信号中的随机噪声及接箍反射波等,处理后的信号曲线在回波周期处峰值更加突出、集中,而在其他位置更加平滑,提高了对液面回波周期特征的辨识能力。     

海洋平台圆柱体坠落运动轨迹及落点分析

传统的角度偏差经验值方法导致落物风险评价过程中的落点和危险区预测存在较大误差,科学化、立体化、完整化、多因素概化的落物轨迹和落点分析方法及工具缺位。为此,以海洋平台圆柱体落物为研究对象开展先导研究,在2D运动理论模型基础上,考虑3维、6度受力与运动参数,引入粘性拖曳力系数经验公式、海流运动、旋转升力和力矩项,建立了具有普适性的落物水下3D运动轨迹预测模型,并以现场实验数据校验表明模型方法可行、结果更可信;据此以Matlab 2016为程序设计平台编制了海洋平台圆柱体坠落运动预测分析工具（MREDP）,分析了坠落运动落点分布规律。研究结果表明:随着初始倾斜角度的增大,落点偏移距离呈现先增后降的趋势,于62°时达到最大值,运动轨迹整体呈现螺线曲率减小、向轨迹曲线外开口侧偏移趋势;落点分布变化可分为Y轴偏移稳定主导阶段、X轴偏移实力型快速主导阶段和X轴偏移机会型主导阶段3个阶段;相对MREDP预测结果,DNVGL-RP-F107经验性角度偏差推荐结果较为保守,MREDP可为DNVGL-RP-F107提供更加准确、可信的轨迹曲线和落点取值。基于分析结果,提出了采用Monte Carlo方法表征实际工程中起始运动参数随机性和入水撞击产生的不确定性等建议。     

生理因素对驾驶人行为及风险感知影响研究综述

为全面认识驾驶人行为及风险感知并分析行为成因,从驾驶人生理因素着手,从驾驶人视力、阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停综合征和肌肉骨骼疾患3个方面梳理国内外驾驶人行为及风险感知的研究成果与研究不足。研究结果表明:驾驶人的生理疾病对其驾驶能力和危险感知存在显著影响;生理疾病严重程度与异常驾驶行为中的一般性失误、危险性失误行为之间具有显著正相关关系,疾病严重程度越高,出行失误行为的频率越高;之后可从理论和实验两方面着手,针对驾驶人的不同属性进行研究。     

火灾发生率空间分异及影响因素研究

为了探究我国火灾空间聚集特征与影响因素的空间异质性,采用全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、逐步回归模型、地理加权回归模型、地理探测器方法对我国地级市单元进行研究。研究结果表明:我国火灾发生率具有显著的聚集性;我国火灾发生率较低的“冷点”区域有1个,火灾发生率较高的“热点”区域有4个;人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口密度、年平均气温4 个因素的影响效应具有空间异质性。人均GDP与火灾发生率为正相关,另外3影响因素对火灾发生率的作用表现出正负2种相关关系;2因素交互作用要比单因素作用于火灾发生率时影响力更显著,各影响因素的交互作用类型有非线性增强型和双因子增强型2种。     

基于尾涡强度的无人机与民机纵向安全间隔评估研究

为了解决无人机频频入侵机场净空,与民航客机发生危险接近的问题,以碰撞风险为量化指标,对无人机与民机需要保持的纵向安全间隔进行评估研究。分析民机尾涡流场对无人机运行的影响,利用Crow近场涡强度消散理论,得到实际尾迹影响区改进Reich碰撞模板,据此建立CNS/GPS性能环境下的纵向间隔评估模型,通过Matlab进行间隔值求解。研究结果表明:模型可以较为准确地反映民机起飞初始爬升阶段无人机尾随运行时导航性能和尾涡迹对所需最小间隔值的影响,并得到给定安全目标水平的计算结果。     

石化装置安全仪表系统KooN表决结构的误跳车率定量分析

为了更准确量化安全仪表系统的误跳车率,基于联锁回路SIF中传感器、逻辑解算器、执行机构引发误跳车的不同失效机理和模型,考虑共因失效对误跳车率的影响,提出1种更符合实际并适用于异型KooN结构的新子系统误跳车率计算模型（STR of Non-identical Redundant System,SNRS）。针对SIF回路的误跳车率计算,建立了1种分析安全联锁SIF回路误跳车率（Reliability based Spurious Trip,RST）的计算框架。研究结果表明:以某聚丙烯装置第三反应器保护系统为例,将SNRS和RST方法与目前主流的多种计算方法进行数值计算对比,验证了方法的有效性,能够有效进行定量分析。     

Are older drivers’ driving patterns during an on-road driving task representative of their real-world driving patterns?

Abstract

Objective: The current study investigated whether older drivers’ driving patterns during a customized on-road driving task were representative of their real-world driving patterns.

Methods: Two hundred and eight participants (male: 68.80%; mean age?=?81.52 years, SD?=?3.37 years, range?=?76.00–96.00 years) completed a customized on-road driving task that commenced from their home and was conducted in their own vehicle. Participants’ real-world driving patterns for the preceding 4-month period were also collected via an in-car recording device (ICRD) that was installed in each participant’s vehicle.

Results: During the 4-month period prior to completing the on-road driving task, participants’ median real-world driving trip distance was 2.66?km (interquartile range [IQR]?=?1.14–5.79?km) and their median on-road driving task trip distance was 4.41?km (IQR?=?2.83–6.35?km). Most participants’ on-road driving task trip distances were classified as representative of their real-world driving trip distances (95.2%, n?=?198).

Conclusions: These findings suggest that most older drivers were able to devise a driving route that was representative of their real-world driving trip distance. Future research will examine whether additional aspects of the on-road driving task (e.g., average speed, proportion of trips in different speed zones) are representative of participants’ real-world driving patterns.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性,基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法,提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先,利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数,构建管段的影响系数矩阵,并利用信息熵确定管段权重;其次,标准化处理影响系数矩阵,通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法,对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定;最后,根据工程实例进行方法实践,结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理,地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀,而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响,保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。