ITERATIVE EVALUATION OF A LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Local governments often face environmental problems that cross political boundaries. The onus for solution usually falls on the moat severely affected jurisdiction, others do nothing until impacted. Resolution of these problems requires cooperation across political boundaries which means that local governments must be persuaded first that there is a problem, and second that action is required to solve it. This paper presents a method to supply low cost, credible information that can be used to achieve consensus on problem solution. A case study of a lake water quality management problem is described. Formative evaluation techniques was adapted to provide a minimum of evidence which was then used to persuade less impacted local jurisdictions to cooperate in the problem solution.     

The development of private sheltered housing in Scotland: a changing market

The provision of sheltered housing for sale in Scotland has experienced rapid growth since the opening of the first scheme in 1982. Development has been geographically concentrated in a small number of inner city and rural (coastal) areas. The expectation of continued rapid expansion is unlikely if recent trends of slower growth continue. This paper uses evidence from interviews with developers and owners of sheltered and mainstream housing, to examine the possible future contribution of the private market. On the basis of such evidence it raises questions about the relevance of some existing planning policies.     

Comparative analysis of air pollution emissions by electric utilities: Public policy implications

One of the objectives of US environmental regulations was to reduce industrial air pollution emissions, especially from the electric utility industry, the major industrial air polluter. In this study, a comparative analysis of air pollution emissions from fossil-fuel-burning electric utility plants is conducted. The analysis focuses on a 12-yr period from 1975 to 1987 for three air pollutants: particulates, surfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides. The results indicate that particulate emissions have been significantly reduced but that sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are still major problems for a number of plants. Furthermore, the disparity in the performance by plants indicates that by using current technology, the industry as a whole could greatly reduce these emissions. These results have policy implication for future environmental legislation.     

A RISK-BASED MODEL FOR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A risk-based model is presented for determining action levels in real-time operation of public water supplies under drought conditions. The model, applicable to surface water supplies, is built around the almost universally adopted structure for drought management, a sequence of increasingly stringent measures to reduce demand. Action levels are determined by finding minimum storage levels that will satisfy a prescribed set of probability constraints over the remainder of a drawdown-refill cycle. Results are presented for the City of Raleigh, NC.     

POLICY DROUGIT: THE CASE OF SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we review recent experience with drought in south Florida, and report some results of a study of the likely agricultural economic impacts of drought. Our conclusions can be summarized as follows. (1) Whether a period of low rainfall becomes a “drought” in south Florida is determined largely by institutional factors. (2) The impacts of a drought event are dependent on the rules the Water Management District uses to manage the event. If the rules involve effective reductions in irrigation supply, the financial impacts may be large, but are sensitive to the way in which cutbacks are imposed. (3) Current drought management regulations do not appear to minimize the short-run cost of drought. (4) Current policies which seek to minimize the short-run cost of drought are inconsistent with dynamically-optimal policies.     

INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS TO WATER MARKETING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: Water marketing has been proposed as one means of reallocating water supplies in the western United States. While markets for western water currently exist and may be expected to expand, the institutional constraints within which the markets must operate will limit the ultimate size and efficiency of those markets. Lack of articulation of public interests in the water resource itself leads to incomplete definition of the private rights to use the water, and it is those private rights which are sold or leased in the market. The increase in size and efficiency of any market in water rights will be dependent on the willingness of legislatures to specifically define the nature and extent of public interests in water supplies, and detailed definition is unlikely.     

Earthquake risk reduction: An examination of local regulatory efforts

We develop an understanding of local governmental efforts to address earthquake risks. Our data for a sample of California and Washington cities' risk-reduction efforts sort into two different clusters of leading jurisdictions as contrasted with a cluster of lagging jurisdictions. We explain differences among the three categories of cities in terms of different political-economic factors. Local governmental willingness and ability to undertake risk-reduction programs have more to do with local political demands and community resources than with objective risk or previous earthquake experience. State mandates have a selective impact on local risk-reduction efforts. The principal policy lessons concern the need to address gaps in local risk-reduction efforts through more careful targeting of federal and state earthquake programs and by including stronger teeth within state mandates.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

Small towns in the united states: a perspective

Small towns are an important part of the rural settlement fabric in the United States, but there is very little substantive research into their capacity to survive or their intrinsic importance. However, recently there has been increasing interest shown by social scientists in these problems. This paper looks at features of this research from the point of view of the population and economic structure of small towns. It concludes by arguing that the problems of small towns are not indigenous to the towns, and calls for a comprehensive national urban policy.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.