收入差距是否影响环境质量?——国内外研究综述

近年来,收入差距扩大与环境质量恶化成为许多国家同时面临的问题,也让一些经济学家开始思考,这两者之间是否存在关联。继20世纪90年代环境库兹涅茨曲线提出以来,一些研究发现不仅收入的绝对水平会对环境质量产生影响,收入差距对环境质量也有影响。本文对这一课题的理论研究进行了梳理,发现现有理论中收入差距对环境质量的影响途径主要有三条。第一条途径是消费者途径,即收入差距影响着以消费为主的个人经济行为,进一步影响着社会消费总量和消费结构,及其过程中产生的污染总量。第二条途径是企业途径,即认为收入差距的扩大会削弱环保型产品的正外部性,不利于环保技术的创新活动,对未来环境质量的改善产生动态影响。第三条途径是政府途径,即认为收入差距会影响相关的环境政策方式与强度选择;而且在不同的社会政策决策机制下,收入差距对环境政策的影响也是不同的,现有的社会决策机制分析框架主要有两种——权利权重型社会决策规则和简单多数规则。此外,本文还对现存的主要实证研究进行了总结,发现大多数研究结论都支持收入差距对环境质量存在着影响,但这种影响并不是线性的。一方面,收入差距对环境的影响与研究的污染物种类有关,大多数研究都显示,收入不平等对CO 2排放和土壤污染存在着负向影响,但有关收入差距对空气污染和水污染影响的研究结论并不统一或并不显著。另一方面,这种影响还与经济发展水平相关,在高收入国家与低收入国家是不同的,存在着阈值效应。最后本文总结了针对中国的研究现状,讨论了其在我国的适用性。     

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.     

Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.     

Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.     

Research priorities for conservation and natural resource management in Oceania's small‐island developing states

For conservation science to effectively inform management, research must focus on creating the scientific knowledge required to solve conservation problems. We identified research questions that, if answered, would increase the effectiveness of conservation and natural resource management practice and policy in Oceania's small‐island developing states. We asked conservation professionals from academia, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations across the region to propose such questions and then identify which were of high priority in an online survey. We compared the high‐priority questions with research questions identified globally and for other regions. Of 270 questions proposed by respondents, 38 were considered high priority, including: What are the highest priority areas for conservation in the face of increasing resource demand and climate change? How should marine protected areas be networked to account for connectivity and climate change? What are the most effective fisheries management policies that contribute to sustainable coral reef fisheries? High‐priority questions related to the particular challenges of undertaking conservation on small‐island developing states and the need for a research agenda that is responsive to the sociocultural context of Oceania. Research priorities for Oceania relative to elsewhere were broadly similar but differed in specific issues relevant to particular conservation contexts. These differences emphasize the importance of involving local practitioners in the identification of research priorities. Priorities were reasonably well aligned among sectoral groups. Only a few questions were widely considered answered, which may indicate a smaller‐than‐expected knowledge‐action gap. We believe these questions can be used to strengthen research collaborations between scientists and practitioners working to further conservation and natural resource management in this region.     

Carnivore-Livestock Conflicts: Effects of Subsidized Predator Control and Economic Correlates on the Sheep Industry

Abstract:  Despite the importance of carnivores in terrestrial ecosystems, many nations have implemented well-coordinated, state-funded initiatives to remove predators, largely because of conflicts with humans over livestock. Although these control efforts have been successful in terms of the number of carnivores removed, their effects on the viability of the industries they seek to protect are less understood. I assessed the efficacy of long-term efforts by the U.S. government to improve the viability of the sheep industry by reducing predation losses. I used regression analysis and hierarchical partitioning of a 60-year data set to explore associations among changes in sheep numbers and factors such as predator control effort, market prices, and production costs. In addition, I compared trends in the sheep industry in the western United States, where predator control is subsidized and coyotes ( Canis latrans ) are abundant, with trends in eastern states that lack federally subsidized predator control and that were (1) colonized by coyotes before 1950 or (2) colonized by coyotes between 1950 and 1990. Although control efforts were positively correlated with fluctuations in sheep numbers, production costs and market prices explained most of the model variation, with a combined independent contribution of 77%. Trends in sheep numbers in eastern and western states were highly correlated ( r ≥ 0.942) independent of the period during which they were colonized by coyotes, indicating either that control has been ineffective at reducing predation losses or that factors other than predation account for the declines in both regions. These results suggest that government-subsidized predator control has failed to prevent the decline in the sheep industry and alternative support mechanisms need to be developed if the goal is to increase sheep production and not simply to kill carnivores.     

中国土地盐碱化及其防治对策研究

中国盐碱地面积为３６３０万ｈｍ２，土地盐碱化是农业生态环境退化的重大问题之一。土地盐碱化治理和预防对中国干旱、半干旱和半湿润地区农业生态系统退化防治、农业生态环境保护和未来食物安全性具有非常重要的实践意义。本文简要评述了我国土地盐碱化的历史及发展趋势以及土地盐碱化可能造成的土地面积、生产力和经济损失；在对土地盐碱化发生和发展的技术和社会经济原因，以及现有技术、管理、政策和法律法规进行系统评述的基础上，提出了我国土地盐碱化防治的区域战略、技术政策、管理政策、法律法规及经济激励手段。     

基于CVM方法分析牧民对禁牧政策的受偿意愿——以锡林郭勒草原为例

确定居民对生态措施实施的受偿意愿,对目前迫切需要的生态补偿政策制定以及生态恢复和保护的有效性具有重要的现实意义。选用锡林郭勒草原为案例区域,通过入户调查及在那达慕大会集中调查相结合的方式,调查锡林郭勒草原地区牧民对禁牧措施的态度和受偿意愿。分析结果显示:53%的牧民愿意参加禁牧,而不愿意参加禁牧主要是由于补偿标准不合理引起的。计量经济学模型分析表明,牧民对禁牧的支持态度与牧民的收入和草地面积呈正相关,与养羊数量呈负相关。牧民的受偿意愿由牧民养羊数量、受教育年限、草地现状以及对禁牧政策的支持程度决定。根据意愿调查法初步估算锡林郭勒草原地区禁牧措施实施后牧民的补偿意愿,牧民家庭对禁牧政策的平均受偿意愿为每年每户2.7717万元,人均受偿意愿为8399元,平均每1hm2草地受偿意愿为85.95元。     

Strategic environmental policy; eco-dumping or a green strategy?

The Porter hypothesis claims that a strong environmental policy best serves the interests of a nation's export industry. While this hypothesis seems to be based on some form of bounded rationality, this paper argues that governments may have good reasons for setting an especially strong environmental policy even though firms are fully rational. If the available abatement technology turns the environment into an “inferior input”, competitiveness is spurred by a strong environmental policy. The government should take advantage of this, and set an especially strict emission quota or an especially high emission tax. The findings in the paper also has consequences for the desirability of international cooperation with respect to national environmental policy. If a strict environmental policy spurs competitiveness, the environment is better protected without cooperation.     

再生资源产业发展的国际经验与我国的对策选择

20世纪80年代以来,再生资源产业被许多国家作为战略性产业而得到迅速发展。近年来,我国再生资源产业发展较快,但与发达国家相比还存在较大差距,总结和借鉴发达国家的经验,并提出推进加快产业发展的对策具有重要的现实意义。