基于奖优罚劣的省区初始水权优化配置

针对我国最严格水资源管理制度要求,研究省区初始水权优化配置模型。首先,基于流域经济效益、省区排污权协调性等建立目标函数,根据流域排污总量构建约束条件,建立多目标省区初始排污权免费分配模型;其次,将排污权嵌入初始水量权配置中,根据奖优罚劣机制构建省区初始水权配置模型;最后,以太湖流域为研究背景进行实证研究。结果表明:太湖流域规划年2030年在75%来水频率下,基于流域可分配初始水权总量为363.3亿m~3和排污量为54.46亿m~3的限制,江苏、浙江和上海初始水权配置量分别为135.19亿m~3,129.21亿m~3和98.89亿m~3。本文的模型通过奖优罚劣函数,把超标或未超标排污的外部性内化到水量分配上,实现了水量权与排污权分配的统一,可为其它流域开展同类研究提供借鉴。     

京津冀PM_(2.5)的主要影响因素及内在关系研究

大气污染物的源排放是形成灰霾天气的内因,气象条件是形成灰霾天气的外因。本研究通过构建PM_(2.5)浓度的两段式分布滞后模型,结合自然环境因素及经济因素对PM_(2.5)的影响因素进行了综合分析。在第一段模型中构建了PM_(2.5)和大气污染物排放量的分布滞后模型,第二段模型中构建了不同的大气污染源对大气污染物排放量的影响因素模型。大气污染物排放源主要包括工业源、生活源、机动车源、集中式污染治理设施源。在工业源中,工业废气重度污染行业是大气污染物排放主要的贡献者;在生活源中,燃煤消费量对大气污染物排放影响很大,这也是冬季供暖期间PM_(2.5)剧增的原因;在机动车源中,尽管黄标车的保有量仅占汽车保有量的10%左右,但却占据了颗粒物排放量的绝大部分。利用京津冀代表性城市PM_(2.5)日度数据研究得出平均气温、平均风速、日照时数、平均气压、降雨量、平均相对湿度、沙尘暴等因素对PM_(2.5)浓度的负向与正向作用。研究发现,大气污染物排放量对PM_(2.5)浓度具有聚集的滞后效应,当期大气污染物排放量、滞后一期、滞后两期、滞后三期大气污染物对PM_(2.5)浓度具有显著的正向作用,且影响依次递减。构建的大气污染物排放量的污染源影响因素模型揭示一个地区煤炭消费量、工业废气重度污染行业工业增加值、黄标车保有量对该地区大气污染物排放量具有显著影响。本研究对优化能源消费结构和产业结构,减少空气污染物排放提出了对策建议。     

Modeling Watershed‐Scale Impacts of Stormwater Management with Traditional versus Low Impact Development Design

Stormwater runoff and associated pollutants from urban areas in the greater Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) impair local streams and downstream ecosystems, despite urbanized land comprising only 7% of the CBW area. More recently, stormwater best management practices (BMPs) have been implemented in a low impact development (LID) manner to treat stormwater runoff closer to its source. This approach included the development of a novel BMP model to compare traditional and LID design, pioneering the use of comprehensively digitized storm sewer infrastructure and BMP design connectivity with spatial patterns in a geographic information system at the watershed scale. The goal was to compare total watershed pollutant removal efficiency in two study watersheds with differing spatial patterns of BMP design (traditional and LID), by quantifying the improved water quality benefit of LID BMP design. An estimate of uncertainty was included in the modeling framework by using ranges for BMP pollutant removal efficiencies that were based on the literature. Our model, using Monte Carlo analysis, predicted that the LID watershed removed approximately 78 kg more nitrogen, 3 kg more phosphorus, and 1,592 kg more sediment per square kilometer as compared with the traditional watershed on an annual basis. Our research provides planners a valuable model to prioritize watersheds for BMP design based on model results or in optimizing BMP selection.     

化学污染物对珊瑚礁生态系统的影响研究进展

化学污染物是影响珊瑚礁生态系统健康的重要因素之一。随着我国社会经济的发展,沿海农业活动、城市工业化以及旅游业的发展导致珊瑚礁生长区的化学污染物浓度越来越高。珊瑚礁生态系统长期在化学污染物的联合胁迫下,生态风险指数日益增加,受到国内外研究者的极大关注。本文综述了国内外该领域的重要研究进展,并从个体、细胞和分子水平重点介绍了化学污染物对珊瑚的影响,主要包括：(1)珊瑚礁对重金属和多环芳烃有明显的富集作用,可以作为该海域化学污染物污染水平的外在反映;(2)化学污染物对珊瑚幼体的影响程度比成体大;(3)抗氧化酶和特定的功能基因可被用作生物标记物来监测珊瑚礁生态系统的健康状况。最后,对我国未来珊瑚礁生态系统的研究方向进行展望,建议在典型珊瑚礁海域进行长期的生态学监测,结合室内胁迫实验,筛选出敏感的生物标志物(biomarker),为今后珊瑚礁生态系统的保护提供基础信息,并对其可能存在的环境风险进行评价。     

Are denser cities greener? Evidence from China, 2000–2010

Whether a city develops into a more compact one with a higher density or a more sprawling one may affect multiple aspects of the urban environment, including ecosystem health, greenhouse gas emissions, and quality of life. Using panel data gathered from China's cities from 2000 to 2010, we take advantage of the significant variation in the temporal change of density across cities to estimate the relationship between gross urban population density and multiple indicators of urban greenness. Fixed‐effects estimates support the widely held belief that density improves air quality and reduces the per capita carbon footprint. Results also suggest that higher density reduces the growth of road infrastructure and vehicle ownership and promotes walking. While density often translates into proximity and accessibility, higher density does reduce a city's per capita urban park and green space. This study strengthens the urban policy and planning literature with much needed longitudinal evidence. Our overall findings support higher density as opposed to lower density urban development in China.     

Formation of secondary inorganic aerosols by power plant emissions exhausted through cooling towers in Saxony

Background, aim, and scope  The fraction of ambient PM₁₀ that is due to the formation of secondary inorganic particulate sulfate and nitrate from the emissions of two large, brown-coal-fired power stations in Saxony (East Germany) is examined. The power stations are equipped with natural-draft cooling towers. The flue gases are directly piped into the cooling towers, thereby receiving an additionally intensified uplift. The exhausted gas-steam mixture contains the gases CO, CO₂, NO, NO₂, and SO₂, the directly emitted primary particles, and additionally, an excess of ‘free’ sulfate ions in water solution, which, after the desulfurization steps, remain non-neutralized by cations. The precursor gases NO₂ and SO₂ are capable of forming nitric and sulfuric acid by several pathways. The acids can be neutralized by ammonia and generate secondary particulate matter by heterogeneous condensation on preexisting particles. Materials and methods  The simulations are performed by a nested and multi-scale application of the online-coupled model system LM-MUSCAT. The Local Model (LM; recently renamed as COSMO) of the German Weather Service performs the meteorological processes, while the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport Model (MUSCAT) includes the transport, the gas phase chemistry, as well as the aerosol chemistry (thermodynamic ammonium–sulfate–nitrate–water system). The highest horizontal resolution in the inner region of Saxony is 0.7 km. One summer and one winter episode, each realizing 5 weeks of the year 2002, are simulated twice, with the cooling tower emissions switched on and off, respectively. This procedure serves to identify the direct and indirect influences of the single plumes on the formation and distribution of the secondary inorganic aerosols. Results and conclusions  Surface traces of the individual tower plumes can be located and distinguished, especially in the well-mixed boundary layer in daytime. At night, the plumes are decoupled from the surface. In no case does the resulting contribution of the cooling tower emissions to PM₁₀ significantly exceed 15 μgm⁻³ at the surface. These extreme values are obtained in narrow plumes on intensive summer conditions, whereas different situations with lower turbulence (night, winter) remain below this value. About 90% of the PM₁₀ concentrations in the plumes are secondarily formed sulfate, mainly ammonium sulfate, and about 10% originate from the primarily emitted particles. Under the assumptions made, ammonium nitrate plays a rather marginal role. Recommendations and perspectives  The analyzed results depend on the specific emission data of power plants with flue gas emissions piped through the cooling towers. The emitted fraction of ‘free’ sulfate ions remaining in excess after the desulfurization steps plays an important role at the formation of secondary aerosols and therefore has to be measured carefully.     

CO_2 Emissions Embodied in China-U.S.Trade

After the Kyoto Protocol was implemented, carbon leakage exerts great influences on international trade and economy. Trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries. China has overtaken the U.S. as the world＇s biggest CO2 emitter since 2006. As China＇s second largest trade partner, the U.S. has the biggest trade deficit with China which has aroused a lot of disputes between the two parties. But so far the assessments of the trade imbalance of China-U.S. have paid little attention to environmental impacts associated with the trade imbalance. Applied an input-output approach, the article estimates the amount of CO2 embodied in China-U.S. trade during 1997-2007. It was found that through trade with China, the U.S. reduced its CO2 emissions compared with a non-trade scenario. Due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry, China-U.S. trade resulted in more CO2 emissions in China and the world. In the end, the article gives some suggestions： it is equal and sustainable that the international accounting methodologies should be improved, for CO2 emissions responsibility must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade.     

Managing emissions from highly industrialized areas: Regulatory compliance under uncertainty

The use of regulatory and compliance-based modeling for air quality impact assessment is invariably relied upon to predict future air quality under various management scenarios particularly where air quality monitoring data are limited. This paper examines the dispersion from a multi-stack cement manufacturing complex with associated quarries and transport activities for regulatory compliance under uncertain emission and meteorological conditions. The concentrations of CO, NO_x, SO₂ and PM at sensitive receptor locations were used as indicators in comparison to World Health Organization (WHO) interim guidelines. Exceedance exposure areas were delineated under bounded uncertainties in input emission factors and meteorological parameters. Planning and management initiatives were tested to control/minimize potential exposure. Compared to the case of low emissions and actual meteorological conditions, the consideration of worst emissions coupled to worst meteorological conditions enlarged the boundaries of the exceedance exposure areas considerably. The implementation of best available technologies and enforcement of emission standards improved air quality in the region significantly and lowered the exposure at many population centers to below health standards. Uncertainty in the output of atmospheric dispersion models continues to play a significant role to be considered at the point where science is translated into political decision making.     

Regulated and unregulated emissions from a diesel engine fueled with biodiesel and biodiesel blended with methanol

Experiments were carried out on a diesel engine operating on Euro V diesel fuel, pure biodiesel and biodiesel blended with methanol. The blended fuels contain 5%, 10% and 15% by volume of methanol. Experiments were conducted under five engine loads at a steady speed of 1800 rev min⁻¹ to assess the performance and the emissions of the engine associated with the application of the different fuels. The results indicate an increase of brake specific fuel consumption and brake thermal efficiency when the diesel engine was operated with biodiesel and the blended fuels, compared with the diesel fuel. The blended fuels could lead to higher CO and HC emissions than biodiesel, higher CO emission but lower HC emission than the diesel fuel. There are simultaneous reductions of NO_x and PM to a level below those of the diesel fuel. Regarding the unregulated emissions, compared with the diesel fuel, the blended fuels generate higher formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and unburned methanol emissions, lower 1,3-butadiene and benzene emissions, while the toluene and xylene emissions not significantly different.     

地下水中石油类污染物运移模拟研究＊

针对我国北方某油田的地下水特点,通过室内土柱模拟实验与数值模型模拟研究了石油类污染物随地下水运移的状况。模拟结果表明,地下水石油类污染物浓度随时间变化曲线总体上呈S型;污染前期地下水中污染物浓度增加较快,随着浓度的不断累积,后期浓度增加缓慢。计算结果显示,在50m处石油类污染物首次超过浓度限值的时间为586d,1000m处石油类污染物首次超过浓度限值的时间为12590d,污染过程表现出一定的滞后性。可见,吸附作用对石油类污染物迁移的影响很大,阻滞和延迟了污染物的迁移。