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832.
基于GM(1,1)模型的安全管理目标值确定方法 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
在事故预防中,安全目标管理是非常重要的工作之一。在确定管理目标时,由于不可能全面、真实地掌握所有信息,同时决策的信息量小,没有确定的分布规律,因此借助灰色理论建立的年伤亡次数与时间之间数值模型,可以反映安全技术措施的持续改进,安全管理的加强,安全教育工作的贯彻以及人们对安全与日俱增的要求。实例表明,采用灰理论进行预测,有以下几个优点:优于传统的以概率论和模糊数学为基础的预测方法;预测结果精度高;可以从多角度考查对象,得出的数据更能体现企业安全状况的现实规律,反映企业现阶段的安全状况。同时为制定科学、合理而可行的安全管理目标提供依据,促使企业安全管理提高到一个新水平。 相似文献
833.
安全产品的供求特性及其与行业安全形势的关系初探 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于安全经济学的基本原理,通过对不同行业的自动安全水平和法定安全水平之间的关系的分析,论述了不同行业安全产品的需求特性,以及与此相适应的安全产品供给特性;并对安全产品的特殊供求机制与特定行业的安全形势之间的关系进行了初步的探讨,提出了提高行业安全水平的对策。 相似文献
834.
国家生产安全应急救援体系分级响应和救援程序探讨 总被引:32,自引:11,他引:21
应急救援的响应机制是国家生产安全应急体系运行的重要基础 ,是保证应急救援活动快速、有效的技术关键。应依据生产安全事故的预期后果、影响范围、事态控制和事件的性质 ,实行预备 (Ⅰ级 )、专业启动(Ⅱ级 )和国家启动 (Ⅲ级 )三级响应机制。在各级应急组织制定和实施通用的应急响应程序 ,使应急反应的接警、启动、救援实施、事态控制、应急恢复 ,直到应急结束的全过程实现程序化和标准化。同时还应建立应急救援演练与评审改进机制 ,以评价应急体系的能力 ,检验应急预案的实效性 ,持续改进 ,不断完善 ,以提高整体应急水平。 相似文献
835.
通过分析锅炉缺水、满水和汽水共腾三种锅炉水位事故的原因 ,有针对性地提出了预防措施及发生锅炉水位事故的处理方法 相似文献
836.
Tiao J. Chang Choo B. Teoh 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1995,31(6):1001-1007
round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small. 相似文献
837.
本文报道了自贡市井矿盐开发所致的辐射水平。井矿盐开发的主要废弃物-卤泥中^238U,^226Ra,^232Th的天然放射性核素比活度比四川省土壤中相应核素平均值高1-2个数量级,且造成卤泥堆积场和局部生产环境陆地γ辐射剂量率高出自贡市环境陆地γ辐射平均值的2.0-48.3倍,最主超过165倍。部份卤泥和盐厂附近江河排放口底泥中天然放射性废物标准。 相似文献
838.
Lankeswara H. Wijayaratne Eugene Golub 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1991,27(3):387-395
ABSTRACT: Previous studies on multiyear droughts have often been limited to the analysis of historic annual flow series. A major disadvantage in this approach can be described as the unavailability of long historic flow records needed to obtain a significant number of drought events for the analysis. To overcome this difficulty, the present study proposes to use synthetically generated annual flow series. A methodology is presented to model annual flows based on an analysis of the harmonic and stochastic properties of the observed flows. Once the model is determined, it can be utilized to generate a flow series of desired length so as to include many hydrologic cycles within the process. The key parameter for a successful drought study is the truncation level used to distinguish low flows from high flows. In this paper, a concept of selecting the truncation level is also presented. The drought simulation procedure is illustrated by a case study of the Pequest watershed in New Jersey. For the above watershed, multiyear droughts were derived from both historic and generated flow series. Three important drought parameters, namely, the duration, severity, and magnitude, were determined for each drought event, and their probability distributions were studied. It was found that gamma and log normal probaility functions produce the best fit for the duration and severity, respectively. The derived probability curves from generated flows can be reliably used to predict the longest drought duration and the largest drought severity within a given return period. 相似文献
839.
论述倡导和弘扬安全又化,提高全民安全又化素质是一项战略性大举措;探讨倡导安全文化的意义及其发展方向;指出安全文化知识应全民必修;研讨安全文化的传播和继承;认为安全文化是高雅易懂的大众文化;提出安全文化建设的思考与建议。全文贯通了劳动部李伯勇部长倡导安全文化的主导思想以及对安全文化建设的关心、指导。 相似文献
840.
Lisa H. Chang Carolyn T. Hunsaker John D. Draves 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(2):273-286
ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management. 相似文献