INPUT/OUTPUT MODELS AS DECISION AIDS FOR LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Over the past several years, input/output models have been used increasingly as decisionmaking aids in the design of lake restoration activities because they provide an approximation of the link between nutrient influx and lake trophic status. To evaluate the applicability of these models as design tools, a study was conducted in which “before” and “after” data were obtained for 25 lakes which experienced reductions in nutrient inflow, and comparisons were made of observed and predicted changes in lake conditions. Three input/output models were used as predictive tools to describe lake response: those reported by Dillon and Rigler (1974) and by Vollenweider (1975, 1976). Based on described trophic states of oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic, it was found that all three models yielded accurate predictions for at least 70 percent of the study lakes. The model of Vollenweider (1976) performed slightly better than the other two (80 percent correct) on the data set studied.     

An evaluation of the impact of persistent water level changes on the areal extent of Georgian Bay/North Channel marshlands

A conceptual mathematical model has recently been devised to assist environmental managers in predicting the impact on coastal marsh areas of long-term changes in water levels. The model considers such impact solely in terms of the geometry of the confining basin, the change in ambient water level, and the maximum depth for which bottom-rooted emergent vegetation is present. This model is applied to 17 shoreline marshes of various shapes in the Georgian Bay/North Channel region of the Great Lakes.Model outputs of predicted maximum and minimum marsh area subsequent to changes in long-term levels are compared to marsh areas measured from available historical air photos dating from 1935 to 1985. The results of such comparisons indicate that such a geometric model, despite its neglect of the biological complexities of marsh ecology, can serve as a valuable tool for assessing the range of impacts of both natural and man-made changes in long-term ambient water levels on shoreline marshes.     

Predicting retail shrink from performance pressure,ethical leader behavior,and store‐level incivility

Retail shrink, a form of inventory loss due primarily to employee theft and shoplifting, is a growing concern for retailers. Prior work on shrink has taken primarily an individual‐level focus to understanding this problem but has yet to really explore how the business context impacts shrink. The current study addresses this need by delineating and testing a unit‐level (i.e., between‐stores) conceptual model, wherein we examine the influence of performance pressure, ethical leader behavior, and store‐level incivility on shrink in a field study of 111 U.S. retail stores. Results demonstrate that performance pressure and ethical leadership interact to influence store‐level incivility. Further, stores with higher incivility also had higher levels of shrink. A focus on the contextual predictors of shrink provides timely insights into the role of performance pressure and leadership on store‐level incivility and consequently on retail shrink. In light of increasingly thin margins in the retail industry, the evidence on how pressure to perform and ethical leadership influences retail shrink may offer a solution to retailers looking to stem financial losses by promoting civility in the workplace.     

环空带压气井保护液液位测试方法研究

为了有效检测环空保护液位,评估气井环空带压情况,在传统回声法检测的基础上,提出了基于频谱分析及自相关分析的2种液位检测方法;搭建了液位检测试验系统,开展了不同环空压力下的液位检测试验,计算了不同压力下的环空声速;设计了FIR低通滤波器对液面回波信号进行滤波处理,同时利用了上述2种方法计算液位值并与实际值及传统液位计算方法对比,得出了声衰减系数并评判了衰减过程对液面回波信号频谱分析的影响程度。研究结果表明:设计的FIR低通滤波器适用于所建液位检测试验的滤波处理过程;频谱分析及自相关分析都能够有效检测液位高度,最大误差分别为1.65%和0.61%,自相关分析方法具有更高的精确度;声衰减系数整体较小,对液面回波信号频谱分析结果影响较小。     

基于直觉模糊集的城市供水安全预警评价模型

为了更好地评价城市供水安全预警的等级,基于直觉模糊集理论,建立城市供水安全预警评价模型。模型选取12个评价指标构成属性集,预警等级划分标准构成评价等级集,再将二者转换为直觉模糊数,以此构成直觉模糊决策矩阵,并综合主、客观权重的优势得到组合权重,以此计算样本综合值,最后分析指标权重变化对于评价结果影响的灵敏度。实例计算结果表明:基于直觉模糊集的城市供水安全预警评价与可拓物元分析法的结果总体接近,2006—2009年供水安全预警等级处于重警或中警等级,2009年以后预警等级降低并基本稳定在无警这一等级。不同指标的敏感性分析有助于提高权重的准确性。     

路径-脆弱点最短距离最大化的危险品运输网络设计

为了实现危险品运输网络的有效设计,进而降低危险品运输风险。将分布于公路两侧的医院、学校、居民区、购物中心等人口集聚场所定义为“脆弱点”,并通过计算运输路径和脆弱点间的加权距离来评估路段风险;结合双层理论构建模型,上层规划为政府的网络设计问题,通过关闭部分路段来最大化危险品车辆行驶路径与各脆弱点间的最小加权距离,下层规划则为承运商的车辆路径选择问题;为求解模型,设计1类启发式算法,并对算法的计算时间复杂性进行证明,最后根据算例分析发现,该算法经过有限数量的迭代即可得到风险最小的、次小的、…、第k小的运输路径及对应的路段关闭方案,为寻求兼顾运输风险和运输成本的最优方案提供决策支持。     

Human resource management systems and work attitudes: The mediating role of future time perspective

This paper examines the role of employees' future time perspective (FTP) in the association between human resource management (HRM) systems and work‐related attitudes. Drawing on social exchange theory, signaling theory, and affective events theory, we hypothesize HRM systems' indirect effects on individual‐level job satisfaction and affective organizational commitment as mediated by FTP. The results of this multilevel study, comprising 913 employees of 76 business units, provide evidence that HRM systems have (i) direct effects on employees' FTP and (ii) indirect effects on job satisfaction and organizational commitment via FTP. In addition, three HRM bundles' (i.e., knowledge, skills, and abilities enhancing; motivation enhancing; and opportunity enhancing) corresponding indirect effects are explored. We discuss the results, theoretical contributions, and practical implications of the study, as well as future research directions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于改进的未确知聚类模型的岩爆倾向性预测

在采用未确知聚类评价模型进行多指标分级评价时,常采用置信度识别准则作为待测对象的属性识别,该准则中置信度的取值由人为取定,当置信度取值不同时,得到的分级判定结果往往出现差异,甚至产生完全不同的判定结果。通过距离判别的思想将未确知聚类理论中的置信度识别准则进行改进,并运用到岩爆烈度的分级预测中。根据岩爆发生的主要影响因素,选取岩石单轴抗压强度σ_c、单轴抗拉强度σ_t、最大切应力σ_θ及岩石的弹性变形能指标W_(et)为岩爆主要影响因子。并以σ_c/σ_1、σ_θ/σ_c、W_(ey)为岩爆烈度等级评价因子,建立未确知测度模型,以距离判别改进后的属性识别方法进行分级预测,并与原置信度识别准则得到的判别结果进行分析和比较。为验证改进模型的实用性,以贵州开磷集团马路坪矿区为例,采用改进的未确知聚类模型对其岩爆烈度等级进行预测分析。结果表明,预测结果与实际情况基本吻合,证明采用改进后的未确知测度模型的判别结果不仅消除了由于置信度取值不同造成的判别结果误差,降低了人为主观因素的影响,而且具有较高的判别准确性和可行性。     

Analyzing the relationships between travel mode indicators and the number of passenger transport fatalities at the city level

Objective: A number of efforts have been conducted on travel behavior and transport fatalities at the neighborhood or street level, and they have identified different factors such as roadway characteristics, personal indicators, and design indicators related to transport safety. However, only a limited number of studies have considered the relationship between travel behavior indicators and the number of transport fatalities at the city level. Therefore, this study explores this relationship and how to fill the mentioned gap in current knowledge.

Method: A generalized linear model (GLM) estimates the relationships between different travel mode indicators (e.g., length of motorway per inhabitants, number of motorcycles per inhabitant, percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, percentage of daily trips by public transport) and the number of passenger transport fatalities. Because this city-level model is developed using data sets from different cities all over the world, the impacts of gross domestic product (GDP) are also included in the model.

Conclusions: Overall, the results imply that the percentage of daily trips by public transport, the percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, and the GDP per inhabitant have negative relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities, whereas motorway length and the number of motorcycles have positive relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities.     

Gravimetric analysis for PM2.5 mass concentration based on year-round monitoring at an urban site in Beijing

Daily PM_(2.5)(particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of below 2.5 μm) mass concentrations were measured by gravimetric analysis in Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences(CRAES), in the northern part of the Beijing urban area, from December 2013 to April 2015. Two pairs of Teflon(T1/T2) and Quartz(Q1/Q2) samples were obtained, for a total number of 1352 valid filters. Results showed elevated pollution in Beijing,with an annual mean PM_(2.5)mass concentration of 102 μg/m~3. According to the calculated PM_(2.5)mass concentration, 50% of our sampling days were acceptable(PM_(2.5) 75 μg/m~3), 30% had slight/medium pollution(75–150 μg/m~3), and 7% had severe pollution( 250 μg/m~3). Sampling interruption occurred frequently for the Teflon filter group(75%) in severe pollution periods,resulting in important data being missing. Further analysis showed that high PM_(2.5)combined with high relative humidity(RH) gave rise to the interruptions. The seasonal variation of PM_(2.5)was presented, with higher monthly average mass concentrations in winter(peak value in February, 422 μg/m~3), and lower in summer(7 μg/m~3 in June). From May to August, the typical summer period, least severe pollution events were observed, with high precipitation levels accelerating the process of wet deposition to remove PM_(2.5). The case of February presented the most serious pollution, with monthly averaged PM_(2.5)of 181 μg/m~3 and 32% of days with severe pollution. The abundance of PM_(2.5)in winter could be related to increased coal consumption for heating needs.