UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF BMP EFFECTWENESS FOR CONTROLLING NITROGEN FROM URBAN NONPOINT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of urban Best Management Practices (BMPs) in achieving the No-Net-Increase Policy (NNTP), a policy designed to limit nonpoint nitrogen loading to Long Island Sound (US), is analyzed. A unit loading model is used to simulate annual nitrogen exported from the Norwalk River watershed (Connecticut) under current and future conditions. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis is used to incorporate uncertainty in nitrogen export coefficients and BMP nitrogen removal effectiveness. The inclusion of uncertainty in BMP effectiveness and nitrogen export coefficients implies that additional BMPs, or BMPs with a greater effectiveness in nitrogen removal, will be required to achieve the NNIP. Even though including uncertainty leads to an increase in BMP implementation rates or BMP effectiveness, this type of analysis provides the decision maker with a more realistic assessment of the likelihood that implementing BMPs as a management strategy will be successful. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that applying BMPs to new urban developments alone will not be sufficient to achieve the NNIP since BMPs are not 100 percent effective in removing the increase in nitrogen caused by urbanization. BMPs must also be applied to selected existing urban areas. BMPs with a nitrogen removal effectiveness of 40–60 percent, probably the highest level of removal that can be expected over an entire watershed, must be applied to at least 75 percent of the existing urban area to achieve the NNIP This high rate of application is not likely to be achieved in urbanized watersheds in the LIS watershed; therefore, additional point source control will be necessary to achieve the NNIP     

FREQUENCY-DURATION ANALYSIS OF DISSOLVED-OXYGEN CONCENTRATIONS IN TWO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Historically, dissolved-oxygen (DO) data have been collected in the same manner as other water-quality constituents, typically at infrequent intervals as a grab sample or an instantaneous meter reading. Recent years have seen an increase in continuous water-quality monitoring with electronic dataloggers. This new technique requires new approaches in the statistical analysis of the continuous record. This paper presents an application of frequency-duration analysis to the continuous DO records of a cold and a warm water stream in rural southwestern Wisconsin. This method offers a quick, concise way to summarize large time-series data bases in an easily interpretable manner. Even though the two streams had similar mean DO concentrations, frequency-duration analyses showed distinct differences in their DO-concentration regime. This type of analysis also may be useful in relating DO concentrations to biological effects and in predicting low DO occurrences.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

An economic analysis of nonpoint source pollution management was conducted for the Nansemond River and Chuckatuck Creek watersheds in Southeast Virginia. The potential effects of alternative public policies on farm income, land use, and pollution loadings were investigated. Regulatory programs could have quite different impacts depending on which pollutant is targeted. Cost-share rates greater than 50 percent would have little additional effect on pollution from crop enterprises, but would reduce pollution from livestock     

MODELING FECAL COLIFORM CONTAMINATION IN THE RIO GRANDE1

This study examines sources of fecal coliform in Segment 2302 of the Rio Grande, located south of the International Falcon Reservoir in southern Texas. The watershed is unique because the contributing drainage areas lie in Texas and Mexico. Additionally, the watershed is mostly rural, with populated communities known as “colonias.” The colonias lack sewered systems and discharge sanitary water directly to the ground surface, thus posing an increased health hazard from coliform bacteria. Monitoring data confirm that Segment 2302 is not safe for contact recreation due to elevated fecal coliform levels. The goal of the study was to simulate the observed exceedences in Segment 2302 and evaluate potential strategies for their elimination. Fecal coliform contributions from ranching and colonia discharges were modeled using the Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF). Model results indicated that the regulatory 30‐day geometric mean fecal coliform concentration of 200 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 milliliters is exceeded approximately three times per year for a total of 30 days. Ongoing initiatives to improve wastewater facilities will reduce this to approximately once per year for 14 days. Best management practices will be necessary to reduce cattle access to streams and eliminate all exceedences. The developed model was limited by the relatively sparse flow and fecal coliform data.     

A WATER QUALITY‐BASED APPROACH FOR WATERSHED WIDE BMP STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: Watershed management strategies generally involve controlling nonpoint source pollution by implementing various best management practices (BMPs). Currently, stormwater management programs in most states use a performance‐based approach to implement onsite BMPs. This approach fails to link the onsite BMP performance directly to receiving water quality benefits, and it does not take into account the combined treatment effects of all the stormwater management practices within a watershed. To address these issues, this paper proposes a water quality‐based BMP planning approach for effective nonpoint source pollution control at a watershed scale. A coupled modeling system consisting of a watershed model (HSPF) and a receiving water quality model (CE‐QUAL‐W2) was developed to establish the linkage between BMP performance and receiving water quality targets. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was utilized to develop alternative BMP strategies at a watershed level. The developed methodology was applied to the Swift Creek Reservoir watershed in Virginia, and the results show that the proposed approach allows for the development of BMP strategies that lead to full compliance with water quality requirements.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF A BIOINFILTRATION BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICE1

ABSTRACT: The goal of this research was to develop a methodology for modeling a bioinfiltration best management practice (BMP) built in a dormitory area on the campus of Villanova University in Pennsylvania. The objectives were to quantify the behavior of the BMP through the different seasons and rainfall events; better understand the physical processes governing the system's behavior; and develop design criteria. The BMP was constructed in 2001 by excavating within an existing traffic island, backfilling with a sand/soil mixture, and planting with salt tolerant grasses and shrubs native to the Atlantic shore. It receives runoff from the asphalt (0.26 hectare) and turf (0.27 hectare) surfaces of the watershed. Monitoring supported by the hydrologic model shows that the facility infiltrates a significant fraction of the annual precipitation, substantially reducing the delivery of nonpoint source pollution and erosive surges downstream. A hydrologic model was developed using HEC‐HMS to represent the site and the BMP using Green‐Ampt and kinematic wave methods. Instruments allow comparison of the modeled and measured water budget parameters. The model, incorporating seasonally variable parameters, predicts the volumes infiltrated and bypassed by the BMP, confirming the applicability of the selected methods for the analysis of bioinfiltration BMPs.     

EMPIRICAL MODELING OF HYDROLOGIC AND NFS POLLUTANT FLUX IN AN URBANIZING BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Long term effects of precipitation and land use/land cover on basin outflow and nonpoint source (NFS) pollutant flux are presented for up to 24 years for a rapidly developing headwater basin and three adjacent headwater basins on the urban fringe of Washington, D.C. Regression models are developed to describe the annual and seasonal responses of basin outflow and IMPS pollutant flux to precipitation, mean impervious surface (IS), and land use. To quantify annual change in mean IS, a variable called delta IS is created as a temporal indicator of urban soil disturbance. Hydrologic models indicate that total annual surface outflow is significantly associated with precipitation and mean IS (r²= 0.65). Seasonal hydrologic models reveal that basin outflow is positively associated with IS during the summer and fall growing season (June to November). NPS pollutant flux models indicate that total and storm total suspended solids (TSS) flux are significantly associated with precipitation and urban soil disturbance in all seasons. Annual NPS total nitrogen flux is significantly associated with both urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.51). Seasonal models of phosphorus flux indicate a significant association of total phosphorus flux with urban soil disturbance during the growing season. Total soluble phosphorus (TSP) flux is significantly associated with IS (r²= 0.34) and urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.58). In urbanizing Cub Run basin, annual TSP concentrations are significantly associated with IS and cultivated agriculture (r²= 0.51).     

磷对环境的污染及防治对策

我国水体富营养化严重，其主要控制因子是磷。在分析磷污染的污染状况，污染源的基础上，介绍了防治对策，采用低磷循环冷却水处理剂，减少磷排放，是防止工业磷污染的有效方法。     

Estimation of Cumulative Frequency Distribution for Carbon Monoxide Concentration from Wind-Speed Data, in Buenos Aires (Argentina)

In this article we apply and test a methodology to estimate cumulative frequency distribution for air pollutant concentration from wind-speed data. We use the inverse relationship after Simpson et al. (Atmospheric Environment, 19, 75–82, 1985) between the opposing percentile values in the statistical distributions for air pollutant concentrations and wind-speed data. This relationship is valid, irrespective of the statistical distributions of both variables, if an inverse relationship between them is also applicable. The available data are five years of 8-h average carbon monoxide concentration and 8-h mean wind-speed, observed in Buenos Aires (Argentina). The performance of the obtained empirical expressions in estimating cumulative frequency distributions for 8-h CO is statistically evaluated. The results show that it is possible to obtain an acceptable cumulative frequency distribution for 8-h CO concentration at the site if the cumulative frequency distribution for wind-speed is known. Q–Q plots show a good agreement between estimated and observed values. From our data, the mean relative error of the estimations was found to be as much as 8.0%.     

Potential and Shortcomings of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Providing Meteorological Data for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting

The last decade progress in numericalweather prediction (NWP) modelling and studies of urbanatmospheric processes for providing meteorological data forurban air pollution forecasting is analysed on examples ofseveral European meteorological centres. Modern nested NWP models are utilising land-use databasesdown to 1 km resolution or finer, and are approaching thenecessary horizontal and vertical resolution suitable forcity scale. The recent scientific developments in the fieldof urban atmospheric physics and the growing availabilityof high-resolution urban surface characteristics datapromise further improvements of the capability of NWPmodels for this aim. A strategy to improve NWP data forthe urban air pollution forecasting is suggested.