基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病,在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型,在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子,将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设,提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象,进行数据拟合和预测分析,其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据,并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数,检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面,改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级,曲线拟合度较高,预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

A multi-objective design optimisation of eco-friendly aircraft: the impact of noise fees on airplanes sustainable development

The current work deals with multi-objective optimisations including financial merit factors in the multi-disciplinary conceptual design of a commercial aircraft with a specific focus on noise social cost. The results of optimisations using financial and performance-oriented objective functions have been analysed and combined in a multi-objective optimisation problem using a three-dimensional objective vector. The main novelty of the present work is the analysis of social cost noise fees effectiveness integrated in financial models embracing a wider group of stakeholders’ interests. The foundations of this research lie on the air traffic increase envisaged in the next decades and the contextual growth of the urban areas nearby airport facilities. This scenario requires the aeronautical industry to handle the environment challenge taking into account all the social and economic effects. Indeed, the consolidated technology has approached a saturation point, therefore breakthrough concepts and configurations are mandatory. This matter is addressed as a highly multi-disciplinary problem within conceptual design framework. The financial model proposed is shown to highlight the need of appropriate noise fees as instruments to push all stakeholders towards a technology radical renewal and encourage the aeronautical industry towards a shared strategy in the development of an eco-friendly commercial aviation system.     

The humanitarian common logistic operating picture: a solution to the inter‐agency coordination challenge

Although significant progress has been made in developing the practice of humanitarian logistics, further improvements in efficiency and effectiveness have the potential to save lives and reduce suffering. This paper explores how the military/emergency services’ concept of a common operating picture (COP) can be adapted to the humanitarian logistics context, and analyses a practical and proven approach to addressing the key challenge of inter‐agency coordination and decision‐making. Successful adaptation could provide the mechanism through which predicted and actual demands, together with the location and status of material in transit, are captured, evaluated, and presented in real time as the basis for enhanced decision‐making between actors in the humanitarian supply network. Through the introduction of a humanitarian logistics COP and its linkages to national disaster management systems, local communities and countries affected by disasters and emergencies will be better placed to oversee and manage their response activities.     

A comparison of pretreatments on release of sugars from sweet sorghum bagasse for bioethanol production

Dilute acid pretreatment and steam pretreatment were evaluated for maximum sugars release and ethanol production from sweet sorghum bagasse (SSB). The fermentation potential of the condensate and hydrolysate obtained from steam pretreatment (10 kg/cm², 10 minutes) and dilute acid hydrolysis (1% (w/w) sulphuric acid, 25% substrate loading) respectively, was checked with Pichia stipitis NCIM 3497 and Debaryomyces hansenii sp. Ethanol production and yield using acid hydrolysate was higher with Debaryomyces hansenii sp. (28.4 g/L and 0.37 g/g respectively) as compared with Pichia stipitis NCIM 3497 (21.9 g/L and 0.29 g/g respectively).     

四氨基酞菁钯/γ-Al_2O_3可见光催化降解罗丹明B

采用浸渍法制备了四氨基酞菁钯(PdTAPc)/γ-Al_2O_3负载型光催化剂,采用UV-Vis,FTIR,XRD,SEM技术对其进行了表征,并将其用于罗丹明B的可见光催化降解,考察了光催化剂加入量、溶液pH、H_2O_2加入量、反应温度对罗丹明B降解效果的影响,并对光催化剂的稳定性进行了测试。表征结果显示,PdTAPc以圆片状负载于γ-Al_2O_3上,二者的结构均未发生明显变化。实验结果表明:在光催化剂加入量1.6 g/L、溶液pH 7.0、H_2O_2加入量12 mmol/L、反应温度20℃的优化条件下反应120 min,罗丹明B(质量浓度0.05 g/L)的降解率高达95%;光催化剂具有较高的稳定性,使用4次后罗丹明B的降解率仍高于85%。     

粉煤灰基层状金属氧化物对水中活性红X-3B的吸附

以粉煤灰(FA)为原料,采用共沉淀法制备了层状双金属氢氧化物(LDH)和层状金属氧化物(LMO,也称LDO),并采用XRD和BET技术进行了表征。比较了FA、LDH、LMO对活性红X-3B染料(X-3B)的吸附效果;考察了LMO吸附X-3B的影响因素,并探讨了吸附机理。XRD表征结果表明,LMO在吸附X-3B后重新恢复LDH层状结构。BET表征结果表明,LMO的比表面积大于LDH。吸附实验结果表明,3种吸附剂对X-3B吸附效果的优劣顺序为:LMOLDHFA;在初始X-3B质量浓度为50 mg/L、LMO投加量为2.0 g/L、吸附温度为25℃、吸附pH为7、吸附时间为30 min的条件下,X-3B去除率可达98.1%;LMO对X-3B的吸附符合Langmuir等温吸附方程,饱和吸附量为129.53 mg/g,且吸附过程可用准二级动力学方程描述。     

苏丹红I对小鼠卵巢的损伤作用及对Caspase-3和Ki-67表达的影响

苏丹红是一种人工合成偶氮染料,可引起肝脏及泌尿系统等多个脏器的肿瘤,但苏丹红对生殖系统的毒性研究较少。本研究以昆明小鼠为受试对象,探讨苏丹红I对小鼠卵巢组织Caspase-3和Ki-67表达的影响。将24只昆明小鼠随机分为:对照组、低剂量(60 mg·kg~(-1))、中剂量(120 mg·kg~(-1))、高剂量(240 mg·kg~(-1))4组,6只/组。胃灌4周,4周末处死。HE染色观察各组卵巢组织病理变化,免疫组化法检测卵巢组织Caspase-3和Ki-67表达,Real time PCR检测卵巢组织Caspase-3和Ki-67 m RNA表达,Western blotting检测卵巢组织中Ki-67及Caspase-3蛋白表达。与对照组比较,实验组卵巢中Caspase-3阳性细胞率显著升高(P0.05),而Ki-67阳性细胞率显著降低(P0.05),Real time PCR及Western blotting结果与免疫组化法结果一致。本实验发现苏丹红染毒后颗粒细胞的Caspase-3表达增加,且Caspase-3表达呈剂量依赖性,但Ki-67表达受到抑制。     

中国典型河湖水体铅的水生生物安全基准与生态风险评价

采用物种敏感度排序法(SSR)对我国铅的淡水水生生物安全基准进行推导,并以太湖为例进行了流域水生生物安全基准推导。对于难以获得的本土生物毒性数据,开展了相应的毒性试验。获得了我国国家与太湖流域铅的水生生物安全基准值,基准最大浓度(CMC)分别为63.92、104.26μg·L-1,基准连续浓度(CCC)分别为1.21、4.06μg·L-1。同时,对我国主要河流以及太湖流域进行了铅的生态风险评价,联合概率曲线法显示影响5%水生生物种类的概率分别为66.22%和43.19%,熵值法则显示中国主要河流存在较大的铅暴露风险,因此,我国铅的潜在生态风险较大,主要河流与太湖流域存在铅污染问题。     

基于统计方法的辽东湾沉积物中多环芳烃来源特征分析

为研究辽东湾表层沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的来源特征,2014年5月采集了20个辽东湾海域表层沉积物样品,并利用气相色谱质谱联用仪对优先控制的16种PAHs进行测定,采用聚类分析、主成分分析-多元线性回归分析、异构体比值3种统计方法对辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs来源特征进行了研究。结果表明,辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs含量范围88.5~199.3 ng·g-1,平均值为(126.3±35.3)ng·g-1,其中,萘、菲和荧蒽是PAHs优势组分。通过统计分析结果表明,辽东湾北部表层沉积物中PAHs含量低于西南部,沉积物中PAHs的来源包括石油燃烧来源、煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源和石油来源,其中燃烧来源是主要来源,煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源占49.9%,石油燃烧来源和石油来源占50.1%。     

Future implications of urban intensification on residential water demand

Over recent decades Auckland, New Zealand, metropolitan area has vastly expanded as a result of rapid population growth and low-density housing developments. In order to manage the uncontrolled low-density urban sprawl, Auckland Council proposed a compact city model through promoting higher density housing developments. In order to understand the implications of this transition on future residential water demand, this study first evaluated water consumption in three major housing types in Auckland including single houses, low-rise and high-rise apartments. Using the geographic information system, the water consumption information, estimated from a large sample of 60,000 dwellings across Auckland, was subsequently integrated with the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan outlining the future housing composition over different areas in Auckland. Through developing different growth scenarios, the study showed that the housing transition from single houses to more intensified multi-unit houses cannot considerably affect the average per capita water consumption in Auckland.