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661.
道路交叉口冲突仿真分析 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2
针对基于事故的安全评价在数量、周期、均值、随机性等方面以及基于现场冲突观测识别在主观性、可靠性、成本、指标全面性等方面存在的问题,提出基于冲突仿真的交叉口安全预评价分析方法:研究利用安全间接分析(SSAM)模型分析冲突的基本原理和冲突时间(TTC)、遭遇时间(PET)等分析指标的计算方法;以及利用VISSIM仿真软件进行冲突仿真分析应注意的策略。以邢台市某道路交叉口安全改善方案为例,进行改善前后冲突仿真的比较分析。研究结果表明,改善后在通行效率显著提升的同时,交叉、追尾、车道变换冲突的数量均显著减少,TTC值有所增加,说明改善后安全程度有所提升。笔者提出的方法和案例应用为道路交叉口改善措施的安全预评价提供了一种分析途径和有益借鉴。 相似文献
662.
针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3~10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。 相似文献
663.
矿井通风系统安全性的多层次模糊综合评价 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:5
按照事故致因理论,并进行系统安全分析和易发事故分析,建立了矿井通风系统安全性的多层次评价体系;应用层次分析法和Matlab软件,确定矿井通风系统安全性评价体系中各子系统及各指标的权重;结合实际经验,根据安全规范构造各指标隶属度;进而根据评价集构造了梯形分布的隶属函数,并得到各指标对评价集的最终隶属度、模糊关系矩阵和综合评价矩阵;求得矿井通风系统安全状况的综合得分,进而划分安全评价等级,并提出了对应各等级的处理措施。将该评价方法应用到重庆开县桃园联合煤矿,取得了良好的效果。 相似文献
664.
对2种氰化物显色剂配制方法进行了对比,发现用无水乙醇配制的显色剂具有方便,经济,实用,无毒且显色剂保存期长等优势。 相似文献
665.
Fecal source tracking by antibiotic resistance analysis on a watershed exhibiting low resistance 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The ongoing development of microbial source tracking has made it possible to identify contamination sources with varying accuracy,
depending on the method used. The purpose of this study was to test the efficiency of the antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA)
method under low resistance by tracking the fecal sources at Turkey Creek, Oklahoma exhibiting this condition. The resistance
patterns of 772 water-isolates, tested with nine antibiotics, were analyzed by discriminant analysis (DA) utilizing a five-source
library containing 2250 isolates. The library passed various representativeness tests; however, two of the pulled-sample tests
suggested insufficient sampling. The resubstitution test of the library individual sources showed significant isolate misclassification
with an average rate of correct classification (ARCC) of 58%. These misclassifications were explained by low antibiotic resistance
(Wilcoxon test P < 0.0001). Seasonal DA of stream E. coli isolates for the pooled sources human/livestock/deer indicated that in fall, the human source dominated (P < 0.0001) at a rate of 56%, and that human and livestock respective contributions in winter (35 and 39%), spring (43 and
40%), and summer (37 and 35%) were similar. Deer scored lower (17–28%) than human and livestock at every season. The DA was
revised using results from a misclassification analysis to provide a perspective of the effect caused by low antibiotic resistance
and a more realistic determination of the fecal source rates at Turkey Creek. The revision increased livestock rates by 13–14%
(0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06), and decreased human and deer by 6–7%. Negative misclassification into livestock was significant (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06). Low antibiotic resistance showed the greatest effect in this category. 相似文献
666.
Using Multi-Scale Sampling and Spatial Cross-Correlation to Investigate Patterns of Plant Species Richness 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Land managers need better techniques to assess exoticplant invasions. We used the cross-correlationstatistic, I
YZ, to test for the presence ofspatial cross-correlation between pair-wisecombinations of soil characteristics, topographicvariables, plant species richness, and cover ofvascular plants in a 754 ha study site in RockyMountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Using 25 largeplots (1000 m2) in five vegetation types, 8 of 12variables showed significant spatial cross-correlationwith at least one other variable, while 6 of 12variables showed significant spatial auto-correlation. Elevation and slope showed significant spatialcross-correlation with all variables except percentcover of native and exotic species. Percent cover ofnative species had significant spatialcross-correlations with soil variables, but not withexotic species. This was probably because of thepatchy distributions of vegetation types in the studyarea. At a finer resolution, using data from ten1 m2 subplots within each of the 1000 m2 plots, allvariables showed significant spatial auto- andcross-correlation. Large-plot sampling was moreaffected by topographic factors than speciesdistribution patterns, while with finer resolutionsampling, the opposite was true. However, thestatistically and biologically significant spatialcorrelation of native and exotic species could only bedetected with finer resolution sampling. We foundexotic plant species invading areas with high nativeplant richness and cover, and in fertile soils high innitrogen, silt, and clay. Spatial auto- andcross-correlation statistics, along with theintegration of remotely sensed data and geographicinformation systems, are powerful new tools forevaluating the patterns and distribution of native andexotic plant species in relation to landscape structure. 相似文献
667.
668.
地表水COD浓度灰色预测的GPPM(1)模型 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
根据地表水中COD浓度的时序数据,建立了GPPM(1)预测模型,结果表明GPPM(1)模型的预测精度优于常规灰色GM(1,1)模型,它为环境系统的拟合,预测和决策提供了新的方法途径。 相似文献
669.
Affum HA Oduro-Afriyie K Nartey VK Adomako D Nyarko BJ 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2008,137(1-3):15-24
Lichens collected in an unpolluted forest (background) in November 2004, transplanted at 41 sampling sites along the Madina-Tetteh
Quarshie road, retrieved in February 2005 and analysed were found to contain higher concentrations of Manganese (Mn), Vanadium
(V), lead, Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr) and Nickel (Ni) than in the background area. Observations showed that of all the heavy
metals studied, Manganese concentrations were highest at all sampling points with maximum values around a traffic light, an
intersection and car fitting/mechanic workshops. Significant correlations were found between Ni and Mn, Mn and Cr and Mn and
V. Statistical analysis also revealed a relatively even dispersion of the studied elements on the eastern side of the road
than on the western side. 相似文献
670.
Pesch R Pehlke H Jerosch K Schröder W Schlüter M 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2008,136(1-3):313-325
In this article a concept is described in order to predict and map the occurrence of benthic communities within and near the
German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The approach consists of two work steps: (1) geostatistical analysis
of abiotic measurement data and (2) calculation of benthic provinces by means of Classification and Regression Trees (CART)
and GIS-techniques. From bottom water measurements on salinity, temperature, silicate and nutrients as well as from punctual
data on grain size ranges (0–20, 20–63, 63–2,000 μ) raster maps were calculated by use of geostatistical methods. At first
the autocorrelation structure was examined and modelled with help of variogram analysis. The resulting variogram models were
then used to calculate raster maps by applying ordinary kriging procedures. After intersecting these raster maps with punctual
data on eight benthic communities a decision tree was derived to predict the occurrence of these communities within the study
area. Since such a CART tree corresponds to a hierarchically ordered set of decision rules it was applied to the geostatistically
estimated raster data to predict benthic habitats within and near the EEZ. 相似文献