厦门海域春夏季微型浮游动物对浮游植物的摄食压力初探

应用稀释法对厦门海域浮游植物生长率(k)和微型浮游动物的摄食率(g)进行了估算。结果显示：5月,西海域18测站k、g分别为2．41、0．78d^-1;南部海域27测站分别为2．43、1．32d^-1。8月18测站k、g分别为3．00、2．90d^-1;27测站分别为1．94、0．91d^-1。说明厦门海域作为典型的亚热带港湾,具有高的k、g值。分粒级研究结果显示：8月,18测站微型浮游动物对微型浮游植物(Micro)具摄食偏好;而27测站微型浮游动物对Micro和Nano级的摄食率相近。应用流式细胞技术研究18测站微微型真核浮游植物的k、g,结果表明：春季,生长率和摄食率分别为2．00、1．02d^-1;夏季分别为1．52、0．96d^-1。     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

A meta‐analysis of functional group responses to forest recovery outside of the tropics

Both active and passive forest restoration schemes are used in degraded landscapes across the world to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Restoration is increasingly also being implemented in biodiversity offset schemes as compensation for loss of natural habitat to anthropogenic development. This has raised concerns about the value of replacing old‐growth forest with plantations, motivating research on biodiversity recovery as forest stands age. Functional diversity is now advocated as a key metric for restoration success, yet it has received little analytical attention to date. We conducted a meta‐analysis of 90 studies that measured differences in species richness for functional groups of fungi, lichens, and beetles between old‐growth control and planted or secondary treatment forests in temperate, boreal, and Mediterranean regions. We identified functional‐group–specific relationships in the response of species richness to stand age after forest disturbance. Ectomycorrhizal fungi averaged 90 years for recovery to old‐growth values (between 45 years and unrecoverable at 95% prediction limits), and epiphytic lichens took 180 years to reach 90% of old‐growth values (between 140 years and never for recovery to old‐growth values at 95% prediction limits). Non‐saproxylic beetle richness, in contrast, decreased as stand age of broadleaved forests increased. The slow recovery by some functional groups essential to ecosystem functioning makes old‐growth forest an effectively irreplaceable biodiversity resource that should be exempt from biodiversity offsetting initiatives.     

Population Growth,Available Resources,and Quality of Life:China’s Post-Reform Economic Development

Two opposing intellectual traditions and their contem-porary developments regarding the relations among population, available resources, and quality of life as reflected in economic growth are reviewed. What is at issue is whether population growth is detrimental to or beneficial for economic development. Neither of the extreme views gives a complete picture of the interplay among population, resources, and quality of life. Following previous literature on the topic, this paper establishes a more balanced approach that considers the function linking population and quality of life not constant but variable and regards the limitedness of resources as not absolute but relative to regions and societies. The proposed approach is more flexible in better explaining the relation between population and economic growth. China is examined as a case in point to shed light on the interaction of population growth, economic development, and available resources, and its recent post-economic reform experiences showcase the appropriateness of the synthetic approach.     

企业安全生产标准化体系的成长性态诊断

为了诊断企业安全生产标准化体系成长性态,将安全生产标准化内化为企业的安全管理方法,基于过程管理的基本理论,按照行为特性与工作流程,从策划行为域、实施行为域、可信度行为域3个层次界定安全生产标准化的体系结构;其次,从成熟度级别、共同特性和通用活动3个构成要素划分成长性态层次结构;然后,将安全生产标准化的体系结构和成长性态层次标识为企业安全生产标准化水平的二维结构,提出基于模糊区间的安全生产标准化体系成长性态诊断方法.结果表明,调查企业的安全生产标准化体系成长性态诊断结果位于规范级,但存在不平衡问题,在评估与确立安全目标、安全培训、细化安全目标要求、交底与配备资源和可信度论据等方面诊断值较低,需要加以改进.     

Dynamics of a low‐density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture‐recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624–1026 km² with 137–200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture‐recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood‐based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km², abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture–recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82–90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low‐density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.     

长三角地区人口密度模型及增长模式:1982～2010

基于熵值法对上海、南京和杭州影响力进行综合评价,运用Arc GIS点距离工具测算各空间单元到沪宁杭的距离,然后借鉴重力模型,将长三角地区划分为以上海、南京和杭州为中心的3个城市经济区,并进行区域人口密度模型拟合。相比线性、指数和乘幂模型,对数模型能更好地拟合经济区内各县、县级市或市辖区人口密度与其到各自经济区中心距离的关系。而相比上述基础模型,基于基础模型的二次模型拟合的判定系数更高,拟合效果更好。其中,对数二次模型拟合的判定系数最高,且明显优于基础模型。基于对数二次模型的人口密度变动的空间差异,沪、宁、杭经济区增长模式可以总结为"强向心集聚"和"近域扩散",但不同区域不同时段增长模式存在差异。     

Predicting Extinction Risk of Brazilian Atlantic Forest Angiosperms

Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species‐level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular‐based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource‐limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non‐phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. Predicción del Riesgo de Extinción de Angiospermas del Bosque Atlántico Brasileño     

The imperiled fish fauna in the Nicaragua Canal zone

Large‐scale infrastructure projects commonly have large effects on the environment. The planned construction of the Nicaragua Canal will irreversibly alter the aquatic environment of Nicaragua in many ways. Two distinct drainage basins (San Juan and Punta Gorda) will be connected and numerous ecosystems will be altered. Considering the project's far‐reaching environmental effects, too few studies on biodiversity have been performed to date. This limits provision of robust environmental impact assessments. We explored the geographic distribution of taxonomic and genetic diversity of freshwater fish species (Poecilia spp., Amatitlania siquia, Hypsophrys nematopus, Brycon guatemalensis, and Roeboides bouchellei) across the Nicaragua Canal zone. We collected population samples in affected areas (San Juan, Punta Gorda, and Escondido drainage basins), investigated species composition of 2 drainage basins and performed genetic analyses (genetic diversity, analysis of molecular variance) based on mitochondrial cytb. Freshwater fish faunas differed substantially between drainage basins (Jaccard similarity = 0.33). Most populations from distinct drainage basins were genetically differentiated. Removing the geographic barrier between these basins will promote biotic homogenization and the loss of unique genetic diversity. We found species in areas where they were not known to exist, including an undescribed, highly distinct clade of live bearing fish (Poecilia). Our results indicate that the Nicaragua Canal likely will have strong impacts on Nicaragua's freshwater biodiversity. However, knowledge about the extent of these impacts is lacking, which highlights the need for more thorough investigations before the environment is altered irreversibly.     

大型浅水湖泊太湖霍甫水丝蚓次级生产力的研究

作为湖泊底栖动物优势种类的霍甫水丝蚓在长江中下游湖泊分布广泛,在湖泊生态系统的能流和物流中占有十分重要的地位。为了了解霍甫水丝蚓在大型浅水湖泊中的种群动态规律、生活史和周年生产量等的状况,于2005年1~12月对太湖霍甫水丝蚓进行周年的研究,以期为了解太湖这一优势种类的生产力状况及合理利用这一资源提供理论依据。研究发现,2005年太湖霍甫水丝蚓年均密度和生物量分别为3 274ind./m~2(0~13 800ind./m~2)和4.70g/m2(0~29.15g/m~2),一般均在冬季达到高峰,空间分布上霍甫水丝蚓密度和生物量呈现出明显的差异性,在太湖北部梅梁湾和竺山湾及西部河口湖区分布较高,而在其它区域的现存量均较低。根据体长频数分布的周年变化特征,推测太湖霍甫水丝蚓约为一年三代,繁殖可能发生在3、7和11月份期间。2005年太湖霍甫水丝蚓年生产量为480.21g·m~(-2)·yr-1,P/B为14.17,与同类研究报道相比属于较高水平。分析表明太湖霍甫水丝蚓的高世代数导致其高P/B系数,而高周年生产量与其所处的营养水平相对较高有关,这对于太湖渔产潜力具有显著意义。