Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

Implications of Macroalgal Isolation by Distance for Networks of Marine Protected Areas

The global extent of macroalgal forests is declining, greatly affecting marine biodiversity at broad scales through the effects macroalgae have on ecosystem processes, habitat provision, and food web support. Networks of marine protected areas comprise one potential tool that may safeguard gene flow among macroalgal populations in the face of increasing population fragmentation caused by pollution, habitat modification, climate change, algal harvesting, trophic cascades, and other anthropogenic stressors. Optimal design of protected area networks requires knowledge of effective dispersal distances for a range of macroalgae. We conducted a global meta‐analysis based on data in the published literature to determine the generality of relation between genetic differentiation and geographic distance among macroalgal populations. We also examined whether spatial genetic variation differed significantly with respect to higher taxon, life history, and habitat characteristics. We found clear evidence of population isolation by distance across a multitude of macroalgal species. Genetic and geographic distance were positively correlated across 49 studies; a modal distance of 50–100 km maintained F_ST < 0.2. This relation was consistent for all algal divisions, life cycles, habitats, and molecular marker classes investigated. Incorporating knowledge of the spatial scales of gene flow into the design of marine protected area networks will help moderate anthropogenic increases in population isolation and inbreeding and contribute to the resilience of macroalgal forests. Implicaciones del Aislamiento por Distancia de Macroalgas para Redes de Áreas Marinas Protegidas     

Estimating population dynamics without population data

We develop a biologically correct cost system for production systems facing invasive pests that allows the estimation of population dynamics without a priori knowledge of their true values. We apply that model to a data set for olive producers in Crete and derive from it predictions about the underlying population dynamics. Those dynamics are compared to information on population dynamics obtained from pest sampling with extremely favorable results.     

Drivers of Seabird Population Recovery on New Zealand Islands after Predator Eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator‐free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. Conductores de la Recuperación de Poblaciones de Aves Marinas en Islas de Nueva Zelanda después de la Erradicación de Depredadores     

Geography and Recovery under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Abstract: The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) defines an endangered species as one “at risk of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range.” The prevailing interpretation of this phrase, which focuses exclusively on the overall viability of listed species without regard to their geographic distribution, has led to development of listing and recovery criteria with fundamental conceptual, legal, and practical shortcomings. The ESA's concept of endangerment is broader than the biological concept of extinction risk in that the “esthetic, ecological, educational, historical, recreational, and scientific” values provided by species are not necessarily furthered by a species mere existence, but rather by a species presence across much of its former range. The concept of “significant portion of range” thus implies an additional geographic component to recovery that may enhance viability, but also offers independent benefits that Congress intended the act to achieve. Although the ESA differs from other major endangered‐species protection laws because it acknowledges the distinct contribution of geography to recovery, it resembles the “representation, resiliency, and redundancy” conservation‐planning framework commonly referenced in recovery plans. To address representation, listing and recovery standards should consider not only what proportion of its former range a species inhabits, but the types of habitats a species occupies and the ecological role it plays there. Recovery planning for formerly widely distributed species (e.g., the gray wolf [Canis lupus]) exemplifies how the geographic component implicit in the ESA's definition of endangerment should be considered in determining recovery goals through identification of ecologically significant types or niche variation within the extent of listed species, subspecies, or “distinct population segments.” By linking listing and recovery standards to niche and ecosystem concepts, the concept of ecologically significant type offers a scientific framework that promotes more coherent dialogue concerning the societal decisions surrounding recovery of endangered species.     

高含固污泥厌氧消化中Fe/S及pH对原位抑硫效率影响及其交互作用

以城市污水处理厂高含固污泥为对象,分别进行了连续厌氧消化抑硫试验和消化污泥Fe(Ⅲ)投加抑硫试验,探讨不同Fe/S(摩尔比)对污泥厌氧消化中溶解态硫化物去除效率的影响以及Fe(Ⅲ)与pH的交互作用.结果表明,热水解污泥厌氧消化采用原位抑硫技术,在Fe/S(摩尔比)为7.75时沼气中H_2S含量可由170.4×10~(-6)降至14.09×10~(-6),无需进行后续处理;当pH为7.00~7.50、Fe/S为1~11时,pH为原位抑硫主要显著影响因子,提高消化池pH有利于降低Fe(Ⅲ)投加量;高含固污泥厌氧消化沼气满足H_2S利用标准时,所需最低Fe/S为7.0;当消化池pH低于7.30时,将无法通过调节Fe/S实现H_2S浓度达标排放.     

基于环境因子和邻近信息的土壤属性空间分布预测

为探索乡镇尺度上土壤属性空间分布预测的最佳方法,以江西省万年县齐埠镇为例,借助四方位搜索法、地统计学和遥感影像分析技术提取环境因子（地形因子和植被覆盖指数）和邻近信息[w（有机质）与w（速效钾）],构建OK法（普通克里金法）、RK1法（仅基于环境因子的回归克里金法）以及RK2法（基于环境因子和邻近信息的回归克里金法）对齐埠镇耕地表层（0~20 cm）土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）空间分布进行预测.结果表明:齐埠镇土壤w（有机质）平均值为35.03 g/kg,w（速效钾）平均值为96.73 mg/kg,均为中等空间变异性.对62个样点进行建模,16个测试样点进行独立验证的误差分析表明,RK2法对土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）预测结果的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均相对误差较OK法分别降低了18.05%、18.01%、21.77%和7.25%、9.49%、9.84%;较RK1法分别降低了22.48%、20.91%、22.02%和9.27%、12.61%、13.52%.研究显示,RK2法明显提高了土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）空间分布模拟精度,并且存在改进和提高的空间.      

北京市大气重污染过程中AQI的时空扩散特征及其预测模型

通过对北京市大气重度污染时段AQI与气象因子分析,探讨AQI的时间和空间变化特征,并建立了AQI的空间预测模型。结果表明:1)风速>2.5 m/s,且持续时间长(超过5 h)时,AQI曲线特征呈现倒"V"型。若其在1.7 m/s中部>北部,4 d后则中部>南部>北部。3)各方向上中部和北部的AQI预测模型中幂函数模型精度最高,且两者受西南方向的影响最大。     

兰州市废旧手机产生量预测分析研究

手机普及率日益提高,随之产生的废弃量也日益增多,分别采用时间梯度模型、市场供给A模型、斯坦福(stanford)模型对兰州市2013年-2022年废旧手机的产生量进行了预测.结果显示,不同模型预测结果之间存在较大差异,市场供给A模型和斯坦福(Stanford)模型的预测结果比较接近,均大于时间梯度模型的预测结果,三种模型预测的兰州市2022年废旧手机的产生量分别为40.40万、46.67万和21.04万部.总体上看,兰州市废旧手机的产生量增长趋势较快.