白云岩单轴压缩试验声发射特性研究

在单轴压缩条件下,进行白云岩破坏全过程的声发射试验研究,得到应力、声发射特性与时间的关系,并研究了岩体的Kaiser效应。结果表明:（1）岩石单轴压缩破坏过程中并不是所有试验岩样有具有典型的声发射特征阶段,部分岩样AE曲线中可以找到Kaiser效应特征点,但是多数岩样的Kaiser效应特征点不明显;（2）岩样的AE现象在应力达到峰值前会经过一个平静期,而在岩石发生破坏直至彻底破坏阶段,AE现象明显增加,这个先平静后剧增的过程可以作为预报岩爆发生的一种警示信号;（3）大多数岩样都在AE能量达到最大时发生彻底破坏。     

Spatio-temporal population and reproductive responses in Perinereis gualpensis (Polychaeta: Nereididae) from estuaries under different anthropogenic influences

Reproductive and population-level responses are ecologically relevant diagnostic tools for revealing the cost of long-term tolerance to contaminants. Spatial density distribution, seasonal density, biomass, size frequency histograms and oocytes stages in Perinereis gualpensis (Polychaeta: Nereididae) from a highly anthropogenically impacted estuary (Lenga, south-central Chile) were compared with low-polluted estuaries (Tubul and Raqui). Spatial distribution showed that the highest P. gualpensis abundances occur in the central (middle) estuarine area, establishing them as suitable zones for comparisons of estuaries. Middle areas also showed differences among estuaries in terms of population and reproductive responses. Mature stage oocytes and juvenile recruitment limited to certain seasons and low adult survival led to significant low densities and biomasses in Lenga individuals (p?相似文献   

‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon,Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

Evaluation of the performance of rural wastewater treatment plants using chemical measurements in combination with statistical techniques: a case study

The performance of a wastewater treatment plant was assessed statistically using multivariate cluster and principle component analysis. This was after measuring some physico-chemical properties in the influent, effluent, downstream, and upstream waters over a 4-month period. The cluster analysis grouped the sampling sites into three clusters: relatively non-polluted (upstream), medium polluted (downstream), and polluted (influent and effluent). The polluted water was further subdivided into very highly (influent) and highly (effluent) polluted. The grouping of influent and effluent into one cluster was due to some water quality parameters such as amount of copper, lead, and phosphates that are not efficiently removed by the plant. Using principal component analysis, samples from the same site taken over a period of 4 months were scattered, indicating inconsistencies in the performance of the plant. This was more pronounced during the rainy season, suggesting that increased water volumes from open sewers make the already poorly performing plant worse. The major loading factors found by principle component analysis were phosphate, lead, iron, zinc, copper, pH, and conductivity. Generally, the wastewater treatment system was found to be efficient in removing heavy metals and these were found in the sludge, but not anions. The mean percentage metal removal could be arranged in the following decreasing order: iron (85%)?>?zinc (57%)?>?copper (40%) and lead (38%) following the concentrations (mg?kg^?1) found in the sludge: iron (11,300)?>?zinc (820)?>?copper (180)?>?lead (20)?>?cadmium (3). Phosphate and iron concentrations in the effluent were found to be above the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) recommendations. The major cause of poor performance is the high volume of the wastewater, exceeding the capacity of the plant 10 times.     

有机污染物生物降解性预测模型

生物降解性是评估污染物环境持久性的重要依据,也是化学品是否获准生产及进入市场的评价指标。采用17位生物降解领域专家评估的生物降解等级数据,通过功能树(FT)算法建立了包含15个分子结构参数的初级生物降解和最终生物降解预测模型。外部验证结果表明,模型具有较好的预测准确性,初级生物降解性加权准确度(weighted accuracy,WA):训练集WA=84.1%,验证集WA=78.9%;最终生物降解性WA:训练集WA=91.0%;验证集WA=83.6%。预测正确性对化合物的杠杆值作图,表征了生物降解性模型的应用域。     

安徽琅琊山青檀种群数量动态

以种群生命表和生存分析理论为基础,采用胸径大小分级法和分段匀滑技术,编制琅琊山青檀（Pteroceltistatarinowii）种群静态生命表,绘制了死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线和生存函数曲线并分析种群数量特征,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明：（1）琅琊山青檀种群属稳定增长型。种群径级结构大体呈倒“J”型分布,中、幼龄阶段个体数量较为丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Kp,i。和Kp,i（考虑外部干扰时）均大于0。（2）青檀种群死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现2个高峰,一个出现在第Ⅱ龄级,另一个出现在第XI（或Ⅻ）龄级;存活曲线经统计检验趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。（3）青檀种群的生存率曲线单调下降,累计死亡率曲线单调上升,生存率下降趋势表现为前期高于后期,累计死亡率则相反;生存函数曲线显示,青檀种群具有前期薄弱、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。（4）在未来2、4、6、8和10a内,青檀种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群呈稳定增长趋势。     

基于反赋权与MBCT-SR多维云模型算法岩爆预测研究

基于岩爆事故的模糊性与随机性特征,为解决在当前岩爆烈度等级预测研究中,通过正向云发生器经验式计算多维云模型特征值进而导致预测结果主观性较强的问题.本文选取应力比Ts=σθ/σt、岩石脆性指数B=σc/σt以及弹性应变储能指数Wet作为评价指标,结合机器学习理论,采用多维逆向MBCT-SR云发生器算法对岩爆等级进行预测,...     

Emergency resources demand prediction using case-based reasoning

The demand prediction on emergency resources is the premise and basis of optimal allocation of emergency resources. Nowadays, there are only few researches on this aspect in China and abroad. For this reason, the paper aims at the characteristics of emergency resource demand prediction and presents a method for emergency resource demand prediction using case-based reasoning (CBR), which is also a method based on risk analysis. This prediction method cannot only provide a basis for emergency resource reserve and allocation in future, but also provide a method and model support for the emergency resources allocation decision-making system to be constructed in future.     

基于蚁群神经网络的煤矿瓦斯预测模型

为了提高煤矿瓦斯涌出量的预测精度和预测速度,用蚁群算法和神经网络相结合的方法进行预测模型设计。选择瓦斯涌出的重要影响因素,建立其神经网络的预测模型。以网络的均方误差为目标函数,通过蚁群算法的迭代运算,实现BP网络的权值优化,并用优化好的BP网络进行瓦斯涌出预测。仿真结果表明,该方法具有较高的拟合预测精度。