五大连池老黑山火山的两次喷发活动

老黑山是五大连池火山群中最年轻的火山.通过对老黑山火山锥体结构及其形态分析指出,老黑山火山并非单锥,而是由先、后不同时期形成的两个锥体叠加组成的复合锥,表明它有两次喷发活动.通过对新发掘出的史料的分析,进一步指出,老黑山火山的第一次喷发时间为1720(不是1719年)-1721年,第二次可能为1776年.两次喷发活动的确认为研究老黑山火山喷发历史、喷发过程、喷发危险性评价和灾害预测等提供了新依据.     

广东省的地质灾害与防治对策

广东省地质灾害类型多,分布广,频率高,危害大.地震、滑坡、崩塌、地裂缝、地面塌陷、地面沉降和软土地基变形等地质灾害是影响当地经济发展和城乡建设的消极因素.地质灾害的时间分布具有波动性,过去35年来存在两个明显的高发期,分别是1985-1992年和1997年至今;其空间分布具有区域耦合性,地质构造复杂、自然环境恶劣的粤西、粤北低山丘陵区和人类活动剧烈、经济发达的沿海平原地区都是重灾区.地质灾害与自然条件、人类活动关系密切.它们的防治应以防为主,防治结合,将生态与工程措施相结合,并调整人类的经济行为,保持生态环境的平衡.     

能源安全工程研究体系探讨

随着矿物能源开采消耗量的急剧增加,煤炭开采安全、能源开采和消耗引起的生态环境改变及破坏、世界石油市场油价波动对经济增长的不利影响、水电等可再生能源所占比重较低等,构成了制约可持续发展的能源安全问题。能源安全工程研究体系由区域能源开发消费安全、合理能源结构和消费布局、能源安全战略及相关法律法规等研究内容组成。通过分层次研究和循环促进,开展能源安全战略、能源安全技术、能源生态关系、能源安全经济的系统研究,为科学解决能源安全问题、实现国家或区域社会经济的可持续发展,提供了理论支持和科技保障。     

房屋结构损伤及安全性评估实例分析

随着我国部分房屋建筑使用年限接近设计期限,或者说结构进入老化阶段,结构的健康状况和安全性评估逐步引起人们的关注。现代测试技术和计算机信息处理方法的结合,结构工程损伤检测方法、技术的规范化和科学化,基于时域和频域分析的结构参数辨识理论和技术、人工智能技术和专家系统也开始应用于结构健康监测和评估。简要评述了结构损伤检测方法进展和理论分析方法,并结合某体育场馆的结构安全性评估为实例,从结构设计、材料强度检测和实际结构状态进行全面检测和分析,并对其健康状况和安全性进行评估。     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

Steady-state analyses for reactive distillation control: An MTBE case study

An approach, based purely on steady-state analyses, for synthesizing effective control structures for reactive distillation (RD) columns is presented. The main idea is to analyze the steady-state relationships between the manipulated (input) variables and the potential controlled (output) variables to identify input–output (IO) pairings that are sensitive and avoid steady-state multiplicities providing a large range of nearly linear operating region around the base case design. Traditional SISO control loops are then implemented using these IO pairings to obtain control structures that maintain the column near the design product purity and conversion for the anticipated primary disturbances. The Niederlinski Index is used to eliminate dynamically unstable pairings in control structures with multiple loops. The approach is demonstrated on an example MTBE RD column. The impact of steady-state multiplicities on control structure design is highlighted.     

县域经济所有制结构的调整

县域经济的所有制结构所表现出来的经济实体形式包括县属地方国有经济、多种形式的集体经济和民营经济,探讨了县域经济所有制结构的形式及其在市场经济中的作用.     

北京市地热资源开发的时空变化

简要介绍了北京地热资源特点,分析了北京地热资源开发的时空演变规律.在搜集资料和实地调查的基础上,绘制出了北京城区地热井分布示意图,并针对其开发利用中可能出现的问题提出了对策.     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.