新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整及其大气环境效应研究

论文利用动态面板的系统GMM估计方法、LMDI分解模型、历史值外推模拟及线性规划约束模型等探究了新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整的影响及其大气环境效应,得到以下结论：1）2001—2013年,山东省工业比重呈现先上升后下降的趋势,污染密集型行业比重整体呈现先下降后上升的趋势,二者的环境规制强度基本呈上升趋势;2）环境规制对山东省工业比重、污染密集型行业比重和高新技术产业比重的影响系数分别为-0.043、-0.451和0.523,说明山东省环境规制的实施对工业结构的优化调整具有正向作用;3）随着山东省环境规制强度的增加,工业结构效应和技术效率效应抑制了大气污染物排放量的增加,而污染密集型行业结构效应虽然是工业结构减排的主要原因,但其减排绝对量较小;4）对比宽松、适度、严格3种环境规制情景下的预测结果,新常态下山东省工业结构的调整力度和大气污染物减排潜力依次增大。值得指出的是,适度环境规制下山东省工业结构调整更有利于经济社会的可持续发展。     

风窗对井下通风系统的影响及其调节与定位优化

利用回路阻力平衡关系分析了井下风窗安装前后通风系统中各分支间风流流动关系,提出了某些分支安装风窗后,通风系统各分支的风量对此变化作出反应的分析模型,给出了度量风量和阻力反应敏感性强弱的方法;假定通风系统中某些分支同时安装风窗,在保留风窗的使用对通风系统所带来的正面作用,但要抑制其负面作用的条件下,基于尽可能使所有参与调节的分支的风阻增、减值最小化的原则,提出了指定分支实施调节的调阻调节法和优选分支实施调节的调阻调节法,并建立了相关最优调节模型及其求解方法。结果表明:两种模型可以在风窗安装之前进行解算,解算结果可预知风窗安装后通风系统各分支的风流的分布情况,并确定出相应的调控策略;优选分支调阻调节模型可以用于选择最优的风窗安装位置、数量及风窗阻力,后者可以用于确定风窗窗口面积。     

北京市产业结构调整及技术进步与节能的动态关系

为了建立环境友好的能源结构与健全节能的保障机制,运用指数分解法对北京市1996—2010年的节能量进行了计算与静态分解,在此基础上以单位GDP能耗作为北京市能源消费水平和节能降耗状况的主要指标,通过建立产业结构调整-技术进步-单位GDP能耗的VAR(vector autoregression,向量自回归)模型,以及脉冲响应和方差分解,论述三者间的动态关系;利用北京市2011─2013年实际单位GDP能耗对VAR模型进行校验,模型计算误差在5%以下. 结果表明:北京市在“九五”期间产业结构调整节能贡献大,占总节能量的55.60%,其主要依托第二、三产业间的结构调整;而在“十五”和“十一五”期间,技术进步节能量分别占同期总节能量的81.35%、85.41%. 单位GDP能耗、产业结构节能、技术进步节能对单位GDP能耗的方差贡献率分别为13%、39%和48%. 产业结构调整和技术进步对单位GDP能耗均产生周期性的影响,每个周期为5.0 a,影响逐渐减弱,2个周期后趋于零. 其中,产业结构调整后的前2.5 a对单位GDP能耗的影响较显著,其中尤以第2年最为明显;技术进步后的3.0～5.0 a对单位GDP能耗的影响显著,尤以第3年最为明显,具有2.0 a的滞后期. 因此,应结合产业结构调整和技术进步对单位GDP能耗影响的特征,对其节能效果做出科学评价,并应用于实际政策制订.      

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.     

利用GPS-RIK技术进行既有线曲线整正测量研究

既有线曲线整正测量是铁路既有线提速改造和工务部门大修设计的主要任务之一。需要改造的既有铁路一般均为繁忙干线，并行车密度较高。传统的测量方法是将测量仪器安置在线路上，这样不仅在作业过程中受行车干扰，作业效率也不够高，而曲线地段通视条件差，作业难度是相当大的。同时，作业人员的安全问题也变得十分突出。笔者提出采用先进的GPS-RIK技术，对既有线曲线整正进行测量。采用该技术不仅能克服气候条件的限制，而且能以较高的频率，较高的精度测定互不通视的各被测点的坐标，克服了传统的作业方法要求置镜点与被测点之间必须通视、作业受天气影响、存在误差累积、内业计算工作量大等缺陷。该法在保证作业人员安全的前提下大大提高作业效率。     

Environmental risk: Management strategies in the developing world

This paper describes a heuristic model which helps to relate a developing nation's environmental risk to the level of sophistication appropriate in adjusting management strategy to dealing with environmental hazards. The model takes into account three factors: the degree of risk, the stage of economic growth, and the sophistication of adjustment. The interrelationship of these factors is examined, and the role of international cooperation in establishing strategies is outlined.     

复杂矿井通风系统分支阻力可调性数值研究

笔者应用数字实验方法 ,通过调节分支阻力 ,研究它对通风系统的影响。研究结果表明 :当一些分支的阻力调到接近完全隔断风流的极大值时 ,网络分析结果仍然正常 ,不影响迭代技术 ;同样也说明了分支阻力预先输入的可行性 ;各分支阻力的变化对通风系统的影响程度是不一样的 ,这由分支在通风网络中的位置决定 ;通过分析 ,给出了通风系统中两风机的相互影响的情况。     

DESIGNING FOR DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM IN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Streams are dynamic systems, so steady state does not exist for any appreciable period of time. Streams in dynamic equilibrium respond quickly to change, regaining a new equilibrium. From the response system it follows that there is a causative reason why a stream meanders or degrades or aggrades its bed. These actions represent adjustment processes. If humans interfere with them, other adjustment processes will be initiated. In contrast, if humans work with the ongoing processes, success will be attainable with less efforts and at a lower cost. Local base level change represents one of the most influential channel changes, especially the lowering of this level. Loss of base level may cause degradation throughout a stream network, because the main stem is the base level for all its tributaries. Often, degradation causes bank instability and lowering of streamside water tables that, in turn, endanger the riparian ecosystem. Judging from check dam systems, a rise of the local base level does not raise the bed throughout a stream or network; instead, aggradation stops at a given distance. Preventing local base level changes of a stream network, therefore, is a cost-effective measure. Examples are presented of treatments causing new critical situations and measures to correct them.     

TREND ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT A general methodology is described for identifying and statistically modeling trends which may be contained in a water quality time series. A range of useful exploratory data analysis tools are suggested for discovering important patterns and statistical characteristics of the data such as trends caused by external interventions. To estimate the entries in an evenly spaced time series when data are available at irregular time intervals, a new procedure based upon seasonal adjustment is described. Intervention analysis is employed at the confirmatory data analysis stage to rigorously model changes in the mean levels of a series which are identified using exploratory data analysis techniques. Furthermore, intervention analysis can be utilized for estimating missing observations when they are not too numerous. The effects of cutting down a forest upon various water quality variables and also the consequences of acid rain upon the alkalinity in a stream provide illustrative applications which demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology.     

农业结构调整与农作物病虫害减灾对策

农业产业结构调整是我国农业生产发展的战略决策,论述了农业产业结构调整的必然性和在农业结构调整期农作物病虫灾害可持续治理的对策。