危险货物道路运输系统的风险评价

分析了危险货物道路运输系统的风险影响因素,在此基础上建立了风险评价指标体系,并采用专家咨询法确定了各指标的权重,提出了使用模糊数学综合评价法对危险货物道路运输系统进行风险评价,并通过实例对评价模型进行了验证.结果表明,利用模糊综合评价的方法对危险货物道路运输系统的风险进行研究,可以为危险货物道路运输企业和交通安全监管部门对危险货物道路运输采取有效的安全控制措施,提供有益的参考.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

A Biological Assessment of Streams in the Eastern United States Using a Predictive Model for Macroinvertebrate Assemblages1

Abstract: A predictive model (RIVPACS‐type) for benthic macroinvertebrates was constructed to assess the biological condition of 1,087 streams sampled throughout the eastern United States from 1993‐2003 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water‐Quality Assessment Program. A subset of 338 sites was designated as reference quality, 28 of which were withheld from model calibration and used to independently evaluate model precision and accuracy. The ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) taxa richness was used as a continuous measure of biological condition, and sites with O/E values <0.8 were classified as biologically degraded. Spatiotemporal variability of O/E values was evaluated with repeated annual and within‐site samples at reference sites. Values of O/E were regressed on a measure of urbanization in three regions and compared among streams in different land‐use settings. The model accurately predicted the expected taxa at validation sites with high precision (SD = 0.11). Within‐site spatial variability in O/E values was much larger than annual and among‐site variation at reference sites and was likely caused by environmental differences among sampled reaches. Values of O/E were significantly correlated with basin road density in the Boston, Massachusetts (p < 0.001), Birmingham, Alabama (p = 0.002), and Green Bay, Wisconsin (p = 0.034) metropolitan areas, but the strength of the relations varied among regions. Urban streams were more depleted of taxa than streams in other land‐use settings, but larger networks of riparian forest appeared to mediate biological degradation. Taxa that occurred less frequently than predicted by the model were those known to be generally intolerant of a variety of anthropogenic stressors.     

室内安全生态学研究

从人们最基本的生存需求之一:安全性需要和室内微型生态系统的可持续发展角度出发,对人们所面临的室内环境问题进行总结归纳;在安全生态学意义下对室内环境问题的研究重新进行了分类;在室内环境问题研究方面提出加强室内安全生态学研究的建议。对室内安全生态学研究提出一些新的观点和看法;给出了室内安全生态学的架构体系;较为全面地归纳了室内各方面的环境问题;初步探讨了如何构建室内安全生态学评价的理论体系。     

THE FATE OF NITRATE IN LAKE SEDIMENT COLUMNS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the magnitude of denitrification and assimilatory nitrate reduction as these reactions relate to the fate of nitrate reaching sediments via groundwater seepage, undisturbed core samples of sediments (40 cm length) from two lakes (Mendota and Tomahawk) were leached from the bottom (at 1.4 cm/day) with a solution of ¹⁵N-nitrate (10 mg N/liter). The sediment columns were fitted with Pt electrodes to measure the oxidation-reduction (Eh) potential. While leaching removed considerable ammonium-N and soluble organic N, essentially no ¹⁵N had passed through the columns by 50 days. The Eh readings indicated that denitrification was occurring in the lower portions of the columns. The ¹⁵N distribution of the sediment N after 50 days showed that about 15 to 26% of the added nitrate-N was converted to organic N and ammonium-N. The data show that denitrification can be a significant N sink in seepage lakes.     

Disaster reduction,loss and damage data,and the post-2015 international policy agenda

Disaster risk management, particularly management of climate-related risks, has become central to the international policy agenda. Reducing hazard-related loss and damage relies heavily on scientific inputs. Science, in turn, relies on data—in this case 1) risk-related data on hazards, exposure and vulnerability, and 2) data on associated loss and damage outcomes. The latter, data on losses and damage, are also post-2015 international policy outcome indicators at the highest level, required for countries’ monitoring of progress in reducing disaster risk, adapting to climate change, and achieving sustainable development. Although the quantity and accessibility of loss and damage data are improving, a number of issues continue to constrain their potential. These include needs for more consistent cataloguing of hazards and extreme events, more systematic and accurate documentation of per-event losses and damage, more precise cross-referencing of hazard events with associated loss and damage, and improved standardization and interoperability among databases. We identify measures for improvement in this regard, both for research purposes and for post-2015 international policy implementation.     

可持续发展实验区灾害风险定量估算方法研究

作者将探索性数据分析方法引入区域灾害风险的定量估算，系统地建立了区域灾害风险的定量估算方法。计算实例表明，文中给出的方法可便捷地用于可持续发展实验区灾害风险评估。     

循环经济的范式研究

发展循环经济是落实科学发展观、实现经济增长方式根本性转变的重要途径。借鉴“范式”理论探讨和研究了循环经济范式替代末端治理范式的变革：①自然资源的价值得到重估。循环经济范式中将自然资源列为最重要的资源形式。认为它是人类社会最大的资源储备，提高资源生产率是解决环境问题的关键。②不同生态伦理得到整合、提升。循环经济的生态伦理基础强调“生态价值”的全面回归．主张在生产领域和消费领域向生态化转向，承认“生态位”的存在和尊重自然权利。它既包含了现代人类中心主义、生命中心主义和生态中心主义兰种生态伦理追求人类道德完善的合理成分。又补充了各自其不完善的方面o③生态阈值的研究得到深化。循环经济范式的基本前提之一是认为生态阈值是客观存在的。强调在生态阈值的范围内合理利用自然资源．从原来的仅对人力生产率的重视转向在根本上提高资源生产率。在尊重自然的基础上切实有力地保护生态系统的自组织能力。实现经济发展和环境保护的目的。④深层生态学的研究得到加强。循环经济范式是一种深层生态学。符合天人调谐的理念。它不仅强调技术进步．而且将制度、体制、管理、文化等因素通盘考虑，注重观念创新和生产、消费方式的变革．树立了人与自然和谐发展的价值观念。     

Using participatory geographic approaches for urban flood risk in Santiago de Chile: Insights from a governance analysis

Studies based on information acquired by participative geographic approaches have sought to cope with emergency situations and disasters such as floods. However, the impact of these approaches to flood risk governance systems in order to understand these types of events as a complete risk cycle is still not clear. This paper focuses on analysing the governance possibilities of using participative geographic information like volunteered and public participatory geographic information for flood risk reduction in the case of Santiago de Chile, a city which regularly experiences urban floods during rainy seasons. Based on in-depth interviews and document analysis, our study indicates that a relevant part of the current information used for flood risk reduction efforts is provided to local and regional authorities by the affected population. Though, local actors are not recognized by central agencies as valid agents for the production of official information. Moreover, there are neither instances of communication or deliberation with the community, which reduces the capacity of local actors to discuss possible solutions. Participative geographic instruments are seen as potential mechanisms to strengthen work relations among local actors and authorities, by enhancing new logics for producing and sharing information. The impacts for the current risk governance system though can be diverse depending on the participants' level of commitment of participants and the political relations between actors and agencies. Considered as merely data acquisition and analysis mechanisms, participative instruments reproduce the existing hierarchical top-down structures. Furthermore, local-based approaches can enhance local work, support local diagnostics and increase the decision capacity of citizens.