How much more exposed are the poor to natural disasters? Global and regional measurement

This paper proposes a simple indicator to measure the exposure to natural disasters for the poor and non-poor population, in order to assess the global and regional trend of natural hazard and poverty. Globally, poor people are two times more exposed to natural disasters than the non-poor in the twenty-first century. The time trend varies across regions, with poor people in East Asia and Pacific being most exposed to natural disasters, followed by those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The change of exposure measure over time is decomposed into two factors: a pure exposure change, which could be fuelled by climate change; and a concentration component. The result shows that the total net increase of exposure between the 1970s and the 2000s is driven significantly by the increased concentration of the poor (26 per cent) in disaster-prone areas, whereas the contribution of that factor remains very small for the non-poor (six per cent).     

The Historical Dynamics of Social–Ecological Traps

Environmental degradation is a typical unintended outcome of collective human behavior. Hardin’s metaphor of the “tragedy of the commons” has become a conceived wisdom that captures the social dynamics leading to environmental degradation. Recently, “traps” has gained currency as an alternative concept to explain the rigidity of social and ecological processes that produce environmental degradation and livelihood impoverishment. The trap metaphor is, however, a great deal more complex compared to Hardin’s insight. This paper takes stock of studies using the trap metaphor. It argues that the concept includes time and history in the analysis, but only as background conditions and not as a factor of causality. From a historical–sociological perspective this is remarkable since social–ecological traps are clearly path-dependent processes, which are causally produced through a conjunction of events. To prove this point the paper conceptualizes social–ecological traps as a process instead of a condition, and systematically compares history and timing in one classic and three recent studies of social–ecological traps. Based on this comparison it concludes that conjunction of social and environmental events contributes profoundly to the production of trap processes. The paper further discusses the implications of this conclusion for policy intervention and outlines how future research might generalize insights from historical–sociological studies of traps.     

新疆北疆地区少数民族贫困县可持续发展水平时空变化解构——以木垒哈萨克自治县为例

可持续发展水平时空解构表明,木垒县可持续发展能力很弱,资源问题成为限制其经济发展、社会发展及环境保护的主要因素。近8年来,木垒县可持续发展水平虽然呈良性上升状态,但其上升主要归功于社会发展因素,经济发展指数、资源指数等对其上升的推动性并不强。仅以提高经济发展水平为目的的掠夺式开发,使得资源匮乏的木垒县因此出现较为严重的资源性环境问题,并制约经济水平的提高。上述分析表明,资源指数成为新疆北疆地区少数民族贫困县可持续发展的基础,少数民族贫困县的贫困现状与其可持续发展能力弱是密切联系的。消除贫困的前提条件是实现可持续发展,因此,提高新疆少数民族贫困县的可持续发展水平这项任务迫切而重要。     

政府减贫行为的动态效应——中国农村减贫问题的SVAR模型实证分析(1990-2008)

脱贫人口返贫率偏高是中国农村贫困问题的一个显著特征.这种客观现实要求我们,应该仔细考察农村贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度对政府干预行为的跨期响应,从而动态地而不是静态地评价政府减贫行为绩效.本文将普惠式的农村农业发展政策与扶贫政策一起纳入减贫分析框架,构建一个结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)模型,以弥补现有文献用多变量时间序列数据通过单方程模型回归分析的局限,从SVAR模型中获得结构冲击响应函数,动态地评价政府行为的减贫效应.实证分析表明,目前的政府行为,无论是普惠式的农村农业发展政策,还是瞄准贫困人口的扶贫政策,对农村贫困的政策干预都没有形成持久的影响,冲击响应衰减很快.为了降低脱贫人口返贫率,政府减贫政策的目标应定位于提升贫困人口的自身发展能力,扩展贫困人口参与经济增长的机会,使经济增长成为他们获取稳定收益的源泉.     

Managing Watershed Externalities in India: Theory and Practice

Watershed development is the focus of poverty alleviation programs in rural India. Watershed projects aim to solve problems of externalities, but they also create their own externalities, which cause uneven distribution of costs and benefits that undermine project objectives and harm the poor. Numerous approaches exist to internalize externalities, including awareness creation, moral suasion, investment subsidies, regulatory limits and fines, indirect benefits, mergers, and recent innovations like payment for environmental services and cap and trade. These can be judged on several criteria; the best approach would solve the problem cost effectively and help or at least not hurt poor people. Watershed projects in India were examined to identify the approaches taken to internalize watershed externalities. Investment subsidies and indirect employment benefits are the least effective approaches theoretically, but they are the most commonly applied, most likely because they are easy to administer and bring popular short term gains. Some theoretically favorable approaches that have been used elsewhere, such as payment for environmental services, may not work as well in India due to high transaction costs. However, one key innovation that easily could be applied in India is to make investment subsidies contingent on performance. Legal support and property rights reform would be needed for other favorable approaches.     

Sustainable agriculture and eradication of rural poverty in Pakistan

Poverty is rampant in the rural areas of Pakistan, where people are in a state of deprivation with regard to incomes, clothing, housing, healthcare, education, sanitary facilities and human rights. Agriculture generates nearly 20.9 percent of the country's GDP and provides employment for 43.4 percent of its workforce. Most importantly, 65.9 percent of the population living in rural areas is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Rising population, shrinking agricultural land, increasing demand for water resources, widespread land degradation and inadequate infrastructure appear to be major concerns of the agriculture sector in Pakistan. An attempt has been made to examine the population growth–agriculture growth–poverty alleviation linkage. It is argued that agriculture will continue to be one of the most important sectors of Pakistan's economy for years to come. To alleviate poverty, it is suggested that Pakistan enhance the productivity of the agriculture sector through the provision of a series of inputs including provision of easy credit to the small farmer, availability of quality fertilizers and pesticides, tractor and harvester services, improvement in the effectiveness of the vast irrigation system and, finally, farmer education. It is concluded that the high rate of population growth needs to be curbed for increased agricultural productivity to have any significant effect on poverty in rural areas of Pakistan.     

Profiling unauthorized natural resource users for better targeting of conservation interventions

Unauthorized use of natural resources is a key threat to many protected areas. Approaches to reducing this threat include law enforcement and integrated conservation and development (ICD) projects, but for such ICDs to be targeted effectively, it is important to understand who is illegally using which natural resources and why. The nature of unauthorized behavior makes it difficult to ascertain this information through direct questioning. Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda, has many ICD projects, including authorizing some local people to use certain nontimber forest resources from the park. However, despite over 25 years of ICD, unauthorized resource use continues. We used household surveys, indirect questioning (unmatched count technique), and focus group discussions to generate profiles of authorized and unauthorized resource users and to explore motivations for unauthorized activity. Overall, unauthorized resource use was most common among people from poor households who lived closest to the park boundary and farthest from roads and trading centers. Other motivations for unauthorized resource use included crop raiding by wild animals, inequity of revenue sharing, and lack of employment, factors that created resentment among the poorest communities. In some communities, benefits obtained from ICD were reported to be the greatest deterrents against unauthorized activity, although law enforcement ranked highest overall. Despite the sensitive nature of exploring unauthorized resource use, management‐relevant insights into the profiles and motivations of unauthorized resource users can be gained from a combination of survey techniques, as adopted here. To reduce unauthorized activity at Bwindi, we suggest ICD benefit the poorest people living in remote areas and near the park boundary by providing affordable alternative sources of forest products and addressing crop raiding. To prevent resentment from driving further unauthorized activity, ICDs should be managed transparently and equitably.     

Monitoring and targeting the sanitation poor: A multidimensional approach

Water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) are at the core of sustainable development. As we embark on a new round of global goals, namely the Sustainable Development Goals, a top priority is to address a coherent framework for monitoring these services. In the coming years, the sector will witness the development of a variety of multidimensional monitoring measures, albeit from different perspectives. This paper reviews the relevant literature and discusses the adequacy and applicability of one approach that is increasingly adopted for multidimensional poverty measurement at the household level, the Alkire‐Foster methodology. Drawing on this method, we identify and combine a set of direct household‐related water and sanitation deprivations that batter a person at the same time. This new multidimensional measure is useful for gaining a better understanding of the context in which WaSH services are delivered. It captures both the incidence and intensity of WaSH poverty, and provides a new tool to support monitoring and reporting. For illustrative purposes, one small town in Mozambique is selected as the initial case study.     

Accounting for the Impact of Conservation on Human Well‐Being

Conservationists are increasingly engaging with the concept of human well‐being to improve the design and evaluation of their interventions. Since the convening of the influential Sarkozy Commission in 2009, development researchers have been refining conceptualizations and frameworks to understand and measure human well‐being and are starting to converge on a common understanding of how best to do this. In conservation, the term human well‐being is in widespread use, but there is a need for guidance on operationalizing it to measure the impacts of conservation interventions on people. We present a framework for understanding human well‐being, which could be particularly useful in conservation. The framework includes 3 conditions; meeting needs, pursuing goals, and experiencing a satisfactory quality of life. We outline some of the complexities involved in evaluating the well‐being effects of conservation interventions, with the understanding that well‐being varies between people and over time and with the priorities of the evaluator. Key challenges for research into the well‐being impacts of conservation interventions include the need to build up a collection of case studies so as to draw out generalizable lessons; harness the potential of modern technology to support well‐being research; and contextualize evaluations of conservation impacts on well‐being spatially and temporally within the wider landscape of social change. Pathways through the smog of confusion around the term well‐being exist, and existing frameworks such as the Well‐being in Developing Countries approach can help conservationists negotiate the challenges of operationalizing the concept. Conservationists have the opportunity to benefit from the recent flurry of research in the development field so as to carry out more nuanced and locally relevant evaluations of the effects of their interventions on human well‐being. Consideración del Impacto de la Conservación sobre el Bienestar Humano     

Fuel poverty and vulnerability in the EU low-carbon transition: the case of renewable electricity

The European Union (EU) and member states alike are following a tradition of addressing fuel poverty and vulnerability at the point of purchase by final consumers by seeking to influence the impact of income, energy price and the built environment on the ability of household consumers to access the energy that they need. By focusing on the conditions of energy transmission in the most rapidly growing renewable electricity sector in the UK – offshore wind – this paper aims to question whether the regulatory socio-technological framing of renewable electricity transmission is reproducing conditions for fuel poverty and vulnerability in the UK. By drawing a comparison with renewable electricity transmission in Bulgaria, this paper argues that the problem might be symptomatic of the EU as a whole. While not arguing against the proliferation of renewable electricity and its importance in meeting the 2020 targets, this paper calls for expanding the scope of fuel poverty alleviation policy throughout the whole renewable electricity supply chain, building on Helm's argument that energy companies at the middle of the supply chain are better suited to deliver fuel policy.