Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

关于燃煤电厂环境影响评价工作中的一些问题

对燃煤电厂的环评工作中，项目选址、总平面布置、污染防治与清洁生产：冷却塔噪声等一些值得注意的问题进行了探讨，并提出了一些初步意见。     

The economics of uranium demand

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s.     

电极构型对空气阴极生物燃料电池发电性能的影响

在空气阴极生物燃料电池(ACMFC)中,从阴极扩散进入阳极的氧气能够被兼性微生物作为电子受体还原,进而导致电子损失严重.本研究利用葡萄糖作底物,对2种不同电极构型的空气阴极生物燃料电池ACMFC1和ACMFC2的功率输出和电子回收进行了比较研究.结果表明,ACMFC1的内阻为302.14Ω,阳极电位为-323mV,最大功率密度为3 070 mW/m³;ACMFC2的内阻为107.79Ω,阳极电位为-442mV,最大功率密度达到9 800 mW/m³.在间歇条件下,ACMFC2可以连续运行220h,电子回收率为30.1%;而ACMFC1只能运行不到50h,电子回收率为9.78%.因此,合理的设计空气阴极生物燃料电池电极构型可以减小内阻,增大电池电动势进而增大功率输出,提高电子回收率.     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

火力发电厂汽轮机的安全评价

介绍了火力发电厂设备中的汽轮机的本体结构, 以及汽轮机的安全评价内容.针对汽轮机的本身特点和安全评价内容,提出了两种安全评价方法对汽轮机进行安全评价.     

在役管道防腐层的失效与维修

介绍了管道防腐层失效的原因和方式,指出水和氧气是防腐层失效的原因,含水量和含氧量决定腐蚀程度,提出对防腐层及时检查与修复等措施.     

某厂氩气纯化器失效分析及对策

某厂氩气纯化器是由1Cr18Ni9不锈钢制成,在使用过程中出现致密性的网状裂纹开裂。详细论述了氩气纯化器开裂失效的原因,并通过理论分析及实践摸索,找出了应对氩气纯化器失效的对策。并在实际运行中得到了验证,确保了新制氩气纯化器的安全可靠运行。     

山铝热电分厂烟气脱硫可行性分析

阐明了烟气脱硫的重要性,对现有烟气脱硫工艺做了简介和比较,结合山西分公司热电分厂的烟尘排放情况及生产工艺、现场实际情况,进行了可行性分析,并提出推荐实施方案。     

Assessing safety culture in the Spanish nuclear industry through the use of working groups

This paper presents the design and the implementation of a methodology for measuring and improving safety culture at a nuclear power plant (NPP). The study has involved the completion of a pilot project aimed at seeing how to make use of the RADAR logic (Results, Approach, Deployment, Assessment and Review) of the EFQM model as a tool for the self assessment of safety culture in a nuclear power plant. The work was aimed at finding evidence of the safety culture that was in place at the plant and at identifying both the strengths of that culture and any areas in which it could be improved. The score obtained from an analysis of those strengths and areas for improvement has made it possible to prioritise the actions to be taken. The identification of perceptions and evidence, the agreement on the strong points and areas for improvement and the quantification of the safety culture have been performed by groups comprising volunteers who work at the NPP. The advantages of this methodology are assessed in the paper.