Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is typically measured directly by eddy covariance towers or is estimated by ecosystem process models, yet comparisons between the data obtained by these two methods can show poor correspondence. There are three potential explanations for this discrepancy. First, estimates of NEE as measured by the eddy-covariance technique are laden with uncertainty and can potentially provide a poor baseline for models to be tested against. Second, there could be fundamental problems in model structure that prevent an accurate simulation of NEE. Third, ecosystem process models are dependent on ecophysiological parameter sets derived from field measurements in which a single parameter for a given species can vary considerably. The latter problem suggests that with such broad variation among multiple inputs, any ecosystem modeling scheme must account for the possibility that many combinations of apparently feasible parameter values might not allow the model to emulate the observed NEE dynamics of a terrestrial ecosystem, as well as the possibility that there may be many parameter sets within a particular model structure that can successfully reproduce the observed data. We examined the extent to which these three issues influence estimates of NEE in a widely used ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, by adapting the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure involved 400,000 model runs, each with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in estimates of NEE that were compared to daily NEE data from young and mature Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon. Of the 400,000 simulations run with different parameter sets for each age class (800,000 total), over 99% of the simulations underestimated the magnitude of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange, with only 4.07% and 0.045% of all simulations providing satisfactory simulations of the field data for the young and mature stands, even when uncertainties in eddy-covariance measurements are accounted for. Results indicate fundamental shortcomings in the ability of this model to produce realistic carbon flux data over the course of forest development, and we suspect that much of the mismatch derives from an inability to realistically model ecosystem respiration. However, difficulties in estimating historic climate data are also a cause for model-data mismatch, particularly in a highly ecotonal region such as central Oregon. This latter difficulty may be less prevalent in other ecosystems, but it nonetheless highlights a challenge in trying to develop a dynamic representation of the terrestrial biosphere.     

基于能值-生命力指数的城市生态系统健康集对分析

综合考虑城市的生命体特征及物质能量代谢层面因素,依托城市生命力指数框架,结合能值指标,构建城市能值-生命力指数,以全面反映城市生态系统健康状况.引入集对分析这种不确定理论与方法,比较城市生态系统相对健康状况.采用基于集对分析的城市能值-生命力指数综合评价模型及信息熵权重,比较北京、上海、武汉、广州等16个城市的生态系统相对健康状况,结果表明,厦门、青岛、杭州、上海、北京健康水平相对较高,而乌鲁木齐、成都、哈尔滨健康水平相对较低,其他城市则为中等水平.     

北京市植被生态需水量与生态服务功能的关系

植被是城市生态系统中重要的组成部分,研究植被的生态需水、以及由生态缺水导致的服务功能变化具有重要意义。采用面积定额法,估算出北京市植被的最小生态需水量为37.4亿m3;采用情景分析方法,分析了不同植被类型、人均生活用水增加、人口增加情景下生态缺水量及其导致的生态服务功能变化。污水、中水回用、植被蓄水与雨水收集是缓解生态缺水的有效措施。     

我国农村能源发展方针调整问题探讨

我国农村能源发展方针是“因地制宜,多能互补,综合利用,讲求效益”,这是在短缺经济的背景下,针对能源危机而提出来的。目前我国农村的社会、经济及其能源供需结构形势发生了重大变化,大量商品能进入农村市场,农村能源面临着结构升级和如何现代化的问题,原十六字方针因缺少生态观和市场观,已不符合现时和未来农村能源可持续发展的实际。文章提出了农村能源发展的十八字方针“因地制宜,生态兴能,市场调节,讲求综合效益”,并逐一对新方针中的论点进行了阐述,提出了我国应以生物质二次能源与商品能源整合的可持续能源的发展理念,提出了实施新方针的有关举措。     

Fluxes of NO3-, NH4+, NO,NO2, and N2O in an Old Danish Beech Forest

The fluxes of the major nitrogen compounds havebeen investigated in many ecosystem studies over the world.However, only in few studies has attention been drawn to theimportance of the fluxes of minor gaseous nitrogen compoundsto complete the nitrogen cycle. In Denmark a detailed study onthe nitrogen cycle in an old beech forest has been implementedin 1997 at Gyrstinge near Sorø, Zealand. The study includesthe fluxes of the gases NO, N₂O and water mediatedtransport of NO₃ ^- and NH₄ ⁺. Measurementsof the fluxes of the gaseous compounds are performed withmicro-meteorological methods (eddy-correlation and gradient)and with chambers. Water mediated fluxes encompass rain,throughfall, stem-flow and leaching from the root zone. Thehydrological model is verified by TDR measurements. The findings show that the total water mediated N input tothe forest floor with throughfall and stemflow was 25.6 kg Nha^-1 yr ^-1, and open field wet deposition withprecipitation was 19.0 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1. The internalcycling of N in the ecosystem measured as turnover oflitterfall and plant uptake was 100 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1and 14 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1, respectively. The fluxes ofthe gaseous N compounds NO and N₂O were of minorimportance for the total N turnover in the forest, NO_xemission being <1 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1 and N₂Oemission from the soil being 0.5 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1 withno significant difference between wet and dry soils.Concentrations of NO₃ ^- and NH₄ ⁺ in thesoil solution beneath the rooting zone are very small andconsequently the N leaching is almost negligible. It isconcluded that the nitrogen mass balance of this old beechforest ecosystem mainly is controlled by the input by dry andwet deposition and a large internal N cycle with a fast litterturnover. The nitrogen input tothe forest ecosystem which currently exceeds the critical loadby 5 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1is mainly accumulated in the soil and no significant nitrateleaching is occurring.     

环境与生态系统资本价值评估的若干问题

近年来,环境与生态系统资本价值评估中的概念界定、系统价值认定及评价模式选择等之类的问题成为相关研究中有争议的议题.鉴于此,对环境与生态系统资本价值评估中的一些问题进行了探讨.①在肯定环境与生态系统资本价值评估意义的基础上,指出对于环境与生态系统的整体价值要予以充分估价;②针对目前评价模式单一的现状,提出了整合类型与区域评估的新模式;③在分析了环境与生态系统的资本价值在空间上流动之后,认为应对价值的积累和流动过程给予充分关注;最后,提出了几条具体的建议.     

UNCALCULATED IMPACTS OF UNSUSTAINABLE AQUIFER YIELD INCLUDING EVIDENCE OF SUBSURFACE INTERBASIN FLOW1

ABSTRACT: Unsustainable withdrawals from regional aquifers have resulted in adverse impacts considerable distances from the point locations of supply wells. In one area of the southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain, conservative estimates for repair/replacement of some residential wells damaged or destroyed by unsustainable yield from the Floridan aquifer system exceeded $4 million. However, a comprehensive assessment of damage/economic loss to private property and public resources due to unsustainable yield from that regional karst aquifer has not been made. Uncalculated direct costs to home‐owners from damage attributed to those withdrawals are associated with destruction of homes from increased sinkhole formation, devalued waterfront property, and removal of diseased and dead trees. Examples of other uncalculated economic burdens resulting from unsustainable aquifer yield in the SE Coastal Plain include: (1) irreversible damage to the aquifer matrix and concomitant increased potential for groundwater contamination, (2) large‐scale wildfires with subsequent degradation of air quality, debilitation of transportation corridors, and destruction of timber, wildlife habitat and property, and (3) destruction of “protected” natural areas. This paper provides a general background of the regional Floridan aquifer system's karst characteristics, examples of known impacts resulting from ground water mining in the SE Coastal Plain, and examples of additional damage that may be related to unsustainable yield from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Costs of these impacts have not been calculated and are not reflected in the price users pay for ground water. Evidence suggests that the classic watershed management approach must be revised in areas with mined regional karst aquifers to include impacts of induced recharge from the surficial aquifer, and subsurface inter‐basin flow. Likewise, associated impacts to surface water and interrelated systems must be calculated. The true cost of groundwater mining to this and future generations should be determined using a multidisciplinary approach.     

高寒草地土壤保持功能的风洞模拟及其定量评估

青藏高原高寒草地的土壤保持功能对于保护生态环境具有重要的作用。为了研究人类活动不同干扰方式对高寒草地土壤保持功能的影响,利用大型风洞,对不同干扰方式下高寒草甸、草原化草甸和高寒草原3个类型的土壤保持功能定量评估,以侵蚀率作为土壤保持功能的测度指标。实验结果表明,随着风速的增大,3个样品的土壤侵蚀率均呈现增大趋势,但不同处理下侵蚀率的增幅不同。当植被根系破坏后,土壤侵蚀率大小为高寒草甸<草原化草甸<高寒草原,说明,高寒草甸土壤的可蚀性低,高寒草原土壤的可蚀性高,极易遭到破坏。从总体来看,土壤保持功能的强弱依次为高寒草甸>草原化草甸>高寒草原。风蚀前后土壤中有机质和养分含量的变化分析表明,土壤有机质和养分含量显著下降,其中速效K2O的养分含量下降幅度最大。对3个草地类型单位面积土壤保持经济价值进行计算,计算主要包括保持有机碳、保持养分和减少土壤流失对河流湖泊淤积3个方面的价值。结果表明,高寒草原化草甸单位面积的土壤保持价值最高,其次为高寒草甸,高寒草原单位面积土壤保持价值最低。     

我国生态工业系统稳定性的结构型因素实证研究

在查阅国内外大量文献的基础上,提出了5个可能影响我国生态工业系统稳定性的结构型因素假设:关键种企业、成员距离、成员相互依赖程度、成员多样性、领导因素.并在全国47个生态工业系统进行统计实证研究加以证实.数据相关分析和回归分析结果表明:强有力的系统内部关键种企业、较少的成员交流障碍、较近的成员空间距离、多样化的成员企业主营业务等4个因素对我国生态工业系统稳定性有显著影响.对我国生态工业系统的发展提出了相应的政府决策建议.      

多卡金矿生态环境治理规划研究

针对多卡金矿开采中的生态环境问题,在对多卡金矿及自然环境、生态环境现状调查基础上,研究制定了多卡金矿生态环境治理规划,以实现生态系统健康,生态格局安全。