Climate Change Policy in European Countries and its effects on industry

In this paper we discuss the effects ofdifferent climate change policies onindustrial activity and on welfare. Wecompare the effects of carbon taxes andgrandfathered permits and the effects ofexemptions for energy-intensive industries.We survey first the insights from economictheory and from model experiments for theUS. Next we use a general equilibrium modelto assess the effect of different climatechange policies on industrial activity persector and per member country in the EU. Wepay particular attention to the effects ofpolicies where one EU member state exemptsits energy-intensive sectors from abatementefforts. The main findings are that, in theEU, the effects on industrial activity andthe welfare costs of tradable permits orcarbon taxes are small when no industrialsectors are exempted. When one membercountry exempts its energy intensivesector, this will reduce somewhat theimpact on its activity level but willgenerate an extra welfare cost for theEU.     

干旱区内陆河流域土地利用程度变化与生态安全评价——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例

以天山北坡玛纳斯河流域为例,在遥感与GIS支持下揭示了流域1989-2002年间土地利用程度变化状况,并进一步对流域生态安全进行了综合评价,最后分析了土地利用程度变化与生态安全的关系。结果表明：①玛纳斯河流域土地利用程度稳定上升,土地利用总体处于发展时期;②1989-2002年,流域生态安全状况整体有所好转,但局部生态环境出现恶化趋势;③流域土地利用程度综合指数在18~100间的区域生态安全等级有所提高,由1989年主体属于中警状态提高到2002年的预警状态;④不同土地利用程度下流域在较安全和预警状态面积之和有以下顺序：Ⅴ＞Ⅳ＞Ⅰ＞Ⅵ＞Ⅲ＞Ⅱ,表明Ⅴ级土地利用程度区即林草地是流域生态恢复和重建的首选和重要组成部分,而沙地则是生态环境治理的难题和关键。最后,提出了通过提高低利用程度区的土地利用程度来确保生态安全的观点。     

中国江河氧化亚氮的排放及其影响因素

氧化亚氮(N₂O)是一种在大气中存留时间很长的强效温室气体,并被认为是21世纪破坏臭氧层的重要物质之一,气候预测需要对自然与人为排放的包括N₂O在内的温室气体进行全面准确地估算.内陆水体是N₂O的重要排放源,由于人为氮输入的增加,江河N₂O的排放量可能逐年升高.本研究总结了江河N₂O排放速率的研究方法,重点汇总了中国各气候带十大流域江河N₂O的溶存浓度和水气界面交换通量,并与世界其他河流进行比较.结果表明我国江河溶存N₂O浓度为0.3～1591 nmol·L^-1,N₂O释放通量为-12.2～2262.1μmol·m^-2·d^-1,总体与世界其他江河的范围值具有可比性.在此基础上,进一步分析了江河N₂O的产生和释放机理,探讨了水中溶解性无机氮、溶解氧、有机碳以及水文、地形地貌与气象条件等对江河N₂O产生和释放...     

Adaptation Bridges and Barriers in Water Planning and Management: Insight from Recent Extreme Droughts in Arizona and Georgia1

Abstract: It is critical to understand the ability of water management to prepare for and respond to the likely increasing duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts brought about by climate variability and change. This article evaluates this ability, or adaptive capacity, within large urban community water systems (CWSs) in Arizona and Georgia. It analyzes interview data on the bridges and barriers to adapting water management approaches in relation to extreme droughts over the past decade. This study not only finds levers for building adaptive capacity that are unique to each state but also identifies several unifying themes that cut across both cases. The interviews also show that a particular bridge or barrier, such as state regulation, is not universally beneficial or detrimental for building adaptive capacity within each state. Such knowledge is useful for improving water and drought management and for understanding how CWSs might prepare for future climate variability and change by removing the barriers and bolstering the bridges in efforts to build adaptive capacity.     

Adapting to changing climate risk by local government in New Zealand: institutional practice barriers and enablers

Adaptation to climate change has been reviewed in several developed nations, but in none where consideration of the effects of climate change is required by statute and devolved to local government. We examine the role of institutional arrangements, the players operating under them, the barriers and enablers for adaptation decision-making in the developed nation of New Zealand. We examine how the roles and responsibilities between national, regional and local governments influence the ability of local government to deliver long-term flexible responses to changing climate risk. We found that the disciplinary practices of law, engineering and planning, within legal frameworks, result in the use of static mechanisms which create inflexible responses to changing risk. Several enablers are identified that could create greater integration between the different scales of government, including better use of national policy instruments, shared professional experience, standardised information collection and risk assessment methods that address uncertainties. The framing of climate risk as dynamic and changing that differentiates activities over their lifetime, development of mechanisms to fund transitions towards transformational change, are identified as necessary conditions for delivering flexible responses over time.     

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the local level

National authorities in many countries aim at having climate change adaptation mainstreamed into existing policy domains in order to achieve coherence and synergies, and to avoid mal-adaptation. Because of local variations in climate change impacts, the lion's share of climate adaptation work will have to take place at the local level. This means also that the mainstreaming process needs to occur locally. This article examines the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into existing sectors in five Norwegian municipalities. Applying theories of mainstreaming and policy integration we find that policy development is slower, but perhaps more robust in the municipalities that have chosen a horizontal, cross-sectoral approach to mainstreaming than in the municipalities that have chosen a vertical sector approach to mainstreaming.     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

环洱海地区气候变化特征研究

环洱海地区是云南省具有高原湖泊生态脆弱区、民族文化多元融合区和乡村经济发展活跃区等多重叠合特征的典型区域,是全球气候变化影响的敏感区和脆弱区。以环洱海地区1951~2014年6个基本站点的逐年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、降水量、最大日降水量和日降水量≥0.1 mm日数资料为基础。采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析和R/S分析等方法,研究了环洱海地区气候变化规律。结果发现:自1951年以来,环洱海地区年均气温和极端最低气温呈现出升高的趋势,而极端最高气温则呈现降低的趋势,变化速率分别为0.07℃/10 a、0.03℃/10 a和–0.14℃/10 a,对于年降水量、最大日降水量和降水日数而言,三者均为减少趋势,速率分别为–12.85 mm/10 a、–1.09mm/10 a和–1.73 d/10 a;环洱海地区年均气温、极端最高和极端最低气温均没有发生突变,年降水量和降水日数在2010年发生了一次减少突变,而最大日降水量则没有检测到突变的年份;环洱海地区年平均气温和年降水量在长时间尺度上的周期性变化最为显著,分别存在30 a和33 a左右的周期变化,并贯穿整个研究时段,而短时间尺度上的周期变化局域性特征突出;从未来演变趋势来看,年平均气温和极端最低气温将维持升温趋势,而极端最高气温则将持续降低趋势,年降水量继续减少的趋势未来将会逆转,但最大日降水量和降水日数两者将持续减少的概率更大。     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.