The global partnership for sustainable development

This paper examines whether foreign aid, together with other economic, social and environmental factors, contributes to sustainable development. It starts with an illustrative theoretical growth model where foreign aid promotes sustainable development by protecting the environment. Using factor analysis and newly developed estimation methods for a dynamic panel data model with endogenous regressors, the empirical section of the paper finds evidence that foreign aid has had a significantly positive influence on sustainable development in aid recipient countries. This effect is very likely to go through channels related to growth and resources as well as a technology channel with respect to energy intensity. This research has important implications for a post‐2015 development framework on international collective action with regard to a sustainable future.     

基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20 years (1990–2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin,China

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output, surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from 1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields. Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by 16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010, partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk, decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields.     

The relationship between light intensity and nutrient uptake kinetics in six freshwater diatoms

In order to find effective measures to control diatom blooms, a better understanding of the physiological characteristics of nutrient uptake in diatoms is needed. A study of P and Si-uptake kinetics for diatom species from two light regimes was conducted at low (LL), moderate (ML) and high light intensities (HL) (2, 25 and 80 μmol photons/(m²·sec)), respectively. The results showed that P uptake of diatoms was heavily influenced by historic light regimes. P affinity changed with growth and photosynthetic activity. The lowest half saturation constant for P uptake (K_m(P)) was under HL for high-light adapted diatoms while the lowest half-saturation constant for low-light adapted diatoms was observed under LL. The Si half-saturation constant (K_m(Si)) increased with increasing light intensities for pennate diatoms but decreased for centric diatoms. Diatom volumes were correlated with the maximum Si uptake rates (V_m(Si)) at HL and K_m(Si) at ML and HL for six diatom species. Our results imply that when we assess the development of diatom blooms we should consider light intensity and cell volume in addition to ambient Si or P concentration. The relationship between light intensity and P-uptake suggests that we can find suitable methods to control diatom blooms on the basis of reducing phytoplankton activity of P-uptake and photosynthesis simultaneously.     

上海市降水过程中汞的浓度变化研究

为了研究降水过程中汞浓度变化规律,采集了上海市区2009年7月6日一次连续降水过程中的分时段12个雨水样品,利用冷原子荧光测汞仪测定了总汞、溶解态汞和颗粒态汞浓度.分析结果显示,降水过程各时段雨水样品的总汞浓度变化范围为0.26～0.53 μg·L-1之间,其中溶解态汞占总汞的比例为67.9％～96.8％;总汞浓度和颗粒态汞浓度的总体变化规律较一致,降水事件的前30分钟内浓度较高,之后逐渐降低,最终趋于稳定;溶解态汞浓度从降水事件开始由高到低逐渐变化,最终也趋于稳定.通过清除比计算云下冲刷过程对雨水中总汞浓度的贡献,发现云下冲刷的贡献大于40.9％.     

恶臭污染评价方法及来源识别研究

随着经济的发展,人们的环境意识不断增强,恶臭作为一种环境污染已越来越受到人们的重视.文章概述了恶臭评价的主要影响因素,以及目前常用的评价方法如臭气强度评价法、臭气浓度(或臭气指数)评价法、臭气扩散模型预测评价法,同时从谱图恶臭污染源识别和源解析模型识别技术两方面介绍了恶臭污染物源解析技术,为恶臭污染事故诊断分析、定性恶臭污染物来源提供了一种新的途径和方法.最后通过分析目前尚未解决的科学问题,指出了今后的研究方向.     

1990年以来长江三角洲耕地资源变化及驱动因子研究

长江三角洲地区是中国经济发展最为快速的地区之一,虽耕地资源秉赋较好,但在经济快速发展的背景下,耕地问题显得十分严峻。以长江三角洲地区16个地级市为研究对象,利用1990~2012年相关数据,以市域为单元分析了耕地资源变化和实际利用强度的时空演变过程。结果表明:(1)1990~2012年,长三角地区的耕地总面积和人均耕地面积呈现周期性的下降趋势,以"快-慢-快-慢-慢"的循环模式逐步降低;(2)长三角地区耕地实际利用强度大体呈现"北强南弱"分布规律,在空间表现上,原来集中连片的 "高-高"、"低-低"格局正逐渐破碎化,开始出现斑点镶嵌式格局;(3)长三角地区的人口、二三产业比重和城市化水平均对耕地面积变化起到显著作用,其弹性系数分别为-0.216、-0.194和-0.203,而人均GDP与耕地面积则没有显著相关性。     

基于SPEI的云南中部区域干旱时空变化特征分析

利用云南中部地区1961~2010年逐月降水和气温资料,采用降水距平百分率和历史旱情资料验证了标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)在该地区的适用性,并采用Mann-kendall突变检验、Morlet小波和经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)等方法,分析了该地区干旱的时空演变特征,结果表明:(1)SPEI与降水距平百分率在时空上具有很好的相关性,验证了SPEI对降水变化的敏感性;(2)SPEI指数与历史旱情资料比较吻合,能够有效地反映云南中部区域的干旱特征;(3)年均SPEI呈波动下降趋势,干季SPEI降低趋势明显。年均SPEI存在着24a的主周期和9a的次周期,并于1977年发生了突变,此后开始降低,在整体上呈现出干旱化的趋势;(4)从SPEI的空间分布特征来看,其在整体上受大尺度气候系统的影响表现出一致的下降趋势,而在区域内部则表现出东南-西北(干热河谷)的反向结构差异。     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

黔中黄壤坡耕地区域降水及其氮磷输入特征

黄壤坡耕地不仅具有“黏、酸、瘦”的特点,而且水土、养分流失普遍严重,引起一系列农业面源污染环境问题。以黔中黄壤坡耕地氮磷流失长期定位监测基地为平台,于2008─2012年连续5年进行观测,研究了降水及氮磷湿沉降浓度、总量及季节性变化等特征,探明了降雨带入的氮磷养分对黄壤坡耕地养分流失的贡献,为农业生产、农业面源污染防治对策提供科学依据。结果表明：2008─2012年间,年降雨次数变幅为46~109次,年均64次;年降雨量变幅为558.4~901.5 mm,年均695.7 mm;频次降雨量变幅为6.5~15.5 mm,平均10.9 mm。5年湿沉降TN、NO3--N、NH4+-N、TP浓度变幅,分别为1.57~3.31、0.17~0.79、0.10~0.94和0.06~0.48 mol·L-1,平均值分别为1.91、0.42、0.28、0.14 mol·L-1,均与降水量呈负相关,但未达到显著水平;5年湿沉降TN、NO3--N、NH4+-N、TP输入量变幅,分别为11.19~18.47、0.96~5.47、1.22~6.65和0.42~1.34 kg·hm-2·a-1,平均值分别为14.32、3.37、2.77、1.09 kg·hm-2·a-1,TN、TP输入量与降雨量呈正相关(相关系数分别为0.774、0.707,P值分别为0.0003、0.0015)。输入量季节性变化5─8月最为集中,5─7月TN输入量为6.95 kg·hm-2,占全年TN输入量的比例高达51.1%;6─8月TP输入量为0.49 kg·hm-2,占全年TP输入量的比例高达47.4%,即冬、春季较低,夏、秋季较高。湿沉降TN、TP输入量相当于当地施肥投入的氮、磷素总量的7.54%、1.14%,因此在农业生产中制定施肥方案时,可考虑坡耕地湿沉降养分的输入,尤其是氮养分的输入。