Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling of plant colonisation by winged aphids: Inferring dispersal processes by linking aerial and field count data

Understanding and modelling insect pest dispersal is an important prerequisite for designing integrated pest management programs. Nevertheless, studies investigating the dispersal of small insects in natural conditions remain scarce mainly because of the difficulty of tracking the movements of these organisms. Here we propose to use Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling (HBM) framework to gain knowledge on hidden processes that cannot be observed directly in natura, such as insect landing and insect mortality, through the definition of latent variables. An HBM describing crop colonization by winged aphids was fitted to a large dataset of field observations issued from a long term survey at a wide scale of both aerial and field densities of the bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi. This study provides the first evidence that suction trap data are reliable proxies of aphid colonizing rates in cereal fields in autumn and can be a nice alternative to the very time-consuming crop sampling. The proportion of winged aphids landing in cereal fields is shown to vary between regions according to the degree of investment of local R. padi population in sexual reproduction. Results also indicate that under autumnal field conditions, less than 5% of winged aphids survive more than 10 days after landing. This HBM provides the basis of a predictive model for aphid crop colonization that fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. It should be of great value to improve the trust of users in any decision making systems.     

The interplay of sex ratio, male success and density-independent mortality affects population dynamics

Environmental constraints can limit a population to a certain size, which is usually called the carrying capacity of a habitat. Besides to this ‘external’ factor, which is mainly determined by the limitation of resources, we investigate here another set of population-intrinsic factors that can limit a population size significantly below the maximum sustainable size. Firstly, density-independent mortality is a prominent factor in all organisms that show age-related and/or accidental death. Secondly, in sexually reproducing organisms the sex ratio and the success of pairing is important for finding reproductive partners. Using a simple model, we demonstrate how sex ratio, mating success and gender-specific mortality can strongly affect the speed of population growth and the maximum population size. In addition, we demonstrate that density-independent mortality, which is often neglected in population models, adds a very important feature to the system: it strongly enhances the negative influence of unbiased sex ratios and inefficient pairing to the maximum sustainable population size. A decrease of the maximum population size significantly affects a population's survival chance in inter-specific competition. Thus, we conclude that the inclusion of density-independent mortality is crucial, especially for models of species that reproduce sexually. We show that density-independent mortality, together with biased sex ratios, can significantly lower the abilities of a population to survive in conditions of strong inter-specific competition and due to the Allee effect. We emphasize that population models should incorporate the sex ratio, male success and density-independent mortality to make plausible predictions of the population dynamics in a gender-structured population. We show that the population size is limited by these intrinsic factors. This is of high ecological significance, because it means that there will always be resources available in any habitat that allows other species (e.g., invaders) to use these resources and settle successfully, if they are sufficiently adapted.     

Decomposition analysis of the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the motor vehicle collision–related mortality rate from 1994 to 2015

Abstract

Objective: Though the mortality rate for motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) has been decreasing since the 1960s with the advent of the first federal seat belt laws in 1968, MVC remains a leading cause of death for individuals aged 1 to 44 years. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of frontal (FABs) and side airbags (SABs) and electronic stability control (ESC) on the components of the MVC mortality rate.

Methods: The MVC mortality rate from 1994 to 2015 was separated into its components of exposure of vehicles, exposure of travel, collision density, injury incidence, and case fatality rate. Year was categorized on the availability of safety technology in vehicles: 1994–1997 (first-generation FABs mandated), 1998–2001 (sled-certified, second-generation FABs mandated), 2002–2006 (increasing prevalence of SABs and ESC), 2007–2011 (advanced airbags mandated), and 2012–2015 (ESC mandated, SAB in over 90% of vehicles, introduction of advanced safety systems). Relative contributions (RCs) of the components to changes in the MVC-related mortality rate were calculated as the absolute value of the component’s beta coefficient divided by the sum of the absolute values of all components’ beta coefficients. Negative binomial regression–estimated rate ratios (RRs) for the changes in the rate of each component by year category compared to the prior year category.

Results: Significant decreases in the MVC mortality rate were observed for 2007–2011 and 2012–2015. The decrease in 2007–2011 was due in most part to an 18% decrease in the injury incidence (RR?=?0.82, P?<?.0001, RC?=?63%), though there was a noted contribution by the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (RR?=?0.95, P?<?.0001, RC?=?15%). The continued decrease in mortality in 2012–2015 was due is most part to the 10% decreased case fatality rate (RR?=?0.90, P?<?.0001, RC?=?66%) because there was no significant change in the vehicle miles traveled and injury incidence.

Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the MVC-related mortality rate and can help direct prevention efforts. Through the study period, there was no meaningful contribution to decreases in the MVC-related mortality rate due to components related to exposure (i.e., vehicles per population and the rate of vehicle miles traveled), suggesting that prevention efforts at decreasing exposure prevalence would have little effect on the MVC-related mortality rate. Instead, prevention efforts should continue to focus on event-phase methods to decrease injury occurrence and mitigate injury severity during the collision.     

Avian Mortality at Oil Pits in the United States: A Review of the Problem and Efforts for Its Solution

Oil production operations produce waste fluids that may be stored in pits, open tanks, and other sites accessible to wildlife. Birds visit these fluid-filled pits and tanks (“oil pits”), which often resemble water sources, and may become trapped and die. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has a program to reduce these impacts by locating problem pits, documenting mortality of protected wildlife species, and seeking cleanup or corrective action at problem pits with the help of state and federal agencies regulating the oil industry. Species identification and verification of protected status for birds recovered from oil pits are performed at the USFWS National Fish and Wildlife Forensics Laboratory. From 1992 to 2005, a minimum of 2060 individual birds were identified from remains recovered from oil pits, representing 172 species from 44 families. The taxonomic and ecological diversity of these birds indicates that oil pits pose a threat to virtually all species of birds that encounter them. Ninety-two percent of identified bird remains belonged to protected species. Most remains identified at the Forensics Laboratory were from passerines, particularly ground-foraging species. Based on Forensics Laboratory and USFWS field data, oil pits currently cause the deaths of 500,000–1 million birds per year. Although law enforcement and industry efforts have produced genuine progress on this issue, oil pits remain a significant source of mortality for birds in the United States.     

Suicide bombings: process of care of mass casualties in the developing world

In recent times Pakistan's biggest city, Karachi, has witnessed numerous terrorist attacks. The city does not have an emergency response system and only one of the three public sector hospitals has a trauma centre. We describe the pattern of injuries and management of two terror-related mass casualty incidents involving suicide bombers in a developing nation with limited resources. The first incident occurred in May 2002 with 36 casualties, of whom 13 (36%) died immediately and 11 (30.5%) died at the primary receiving hospitals. The second incident was targeted against the local population in May 2004. The blast resulted in 104 casualties, of which 14 (13.46%) died at the site. All patients had their initial assessment and treatment based on Advanced Trauma and Life Support principles and documented on a trauma form.     

全球变暖对上海和广州人群死亡数的可能影响

研究表明，最高气温达到３４℃以上的“热日”死亡数显著增加，“热日多出死亡数”占夏季总死亡数的百分率，上海为４．２％，广州为３．８％。广州人对热压力的适应性比上海人强。如果上海和广州未来温升不到１℃，冬夏死亡效变化不大；如温升几度，夏季死亡数上升，超过冬季死亡数的下降，全年死亡率增高。     

城市大气污染的人力资本损失研究

从人均GDP的角度提出了修正人力资本法,分析了大气污染引起的过早死亡人力资本损失,分析了平均损失寿命年、人均GDP增长率和社会贴现率对人力资本损失的影响.并以2003年为基准年,估算出主要城市大气污染的人均人力资本损失大致在12～90万元/人之间.为评估我国城市大气污染的健康经济损失提供参考.     

遗传算法改进措施

标准遗传算法是一种导向随机搜索算法,具有较强的全局搜索能力.但遗传算法存在早熟收敛及收敛速度慢等问题,许多改进的遗传算法被提出,有效地克服或减轻了上述问题.参17.     

Memento Mori: The development and validation of the Death Reflection Scale

Despite its potential for advancing organizational behavior (OB) research, the topic of death awareness has been vastly understudied. Moreover, research on death awareness has predominantly focused on the anxiety‐provoking aspect of death‐related cognitions, thus overlooking the positive aspect of death awareness, death reflection. This gap is exacerbated by the lack of a valid research instrument to measure death reflection. To address this issue, we offer a systematic conceptualization of death reflection, develop the Death Reflection Scale, and assess its psychometric properties across four studies. Further, using a sample of 268 firefighters, we examine whether death reflection buffers the detrimental impact of mortality cues at work on employee well‐being and safety performance. Results provide strong support for the psychometric properties of the Death Reflection Scale. Further, moderation analysis indicates death reflection weakens the negative effect of mortality cues on firefighters' safety performance. Overall, these findings suggest the newly developed Death Reflection Scale will prove useful in future research on death‐related cognitions.