Coordinability and consistency: Application of systems theory to accident causation and prevention

Recent works in the safety literature report several fruitful attempts to introduce mathematically rigorous results from systems and control theory to bear upon accident prevention and system safety. Previously, we discussed the implications on safety of the systems theoretic principles of coordinability and consistency, and we identified the lack of coordinability and/or consistency as fundamental failure modes in hierarchical multilevel systems. In this work, we further develop system safety analysis techniques based on these principles. We demonstrate that these principles not only provide a domain-independent vocabulary for expressing the results of post-mortem accident analyses, but they can also be applied to guide design and operational choices for accident prevention and system safety. We develop these ideas with the help of an illustrative case study. This case study represents a broad class of systems where operational policies and procedures of individual stakeholders in the system interact with physical processes such that new system behaviors emerge, and unanticipated safety issues arise. We argue, and illustrate our arguments using this case study, that the coordinability and consistency principles can be developed to deliver a threefold impact on accident analysis and prevention: firstly, these principles provide domain-independent procedural templates and vocabulary for post-mortem accident analysis. Secondly, these principles provide theoretical safety specifications to be met during system design and operation. Finally, these safety specifications can precipitate the formulation of a series of questions directly related to safety-oriented choices in the design, operation, and control of systems.     

大水矿山DGME系统动态随机模型及风险预测

大水矿山由于含水层通常难以疏干,矿山生产常采取边疏干含水层边开采的带压开采方式进行,此类矿山实际开采环境是由排水系统及地下水系统组成,即排水-地下水的开采环境(DrainingGroundwater Mining Environment,DGME)系统。为此,根据系统论的原理,构建了大水矿山排水-地下水开采环境系统动态随机模型,并以模型为基础分析了系统水位随机变化的影响因素。结果表明:1)DGME系统动态随机模型可反映出矿山地下水系统与排水系统之间的相互关系;2)矿山地下水位变化是Wiener过程,臼水位分布符合正态分布,其数字特征取决于系统输入输出流量差的均值及方差;3)系统当前风险状态受短期内系统水位变化影响,超出一定时域,系统风险状态不可预知。     

基于GIS城市管网生命线的防灾减灾方法研究

为了有效制定城市管网生命线系统的非工程性防灾减灾措施,利用GIS的空间分析功能评估管网生命线的脆弱性和风险性.通过顶层设计结合工程性防护措施与非工程性保护措施可以降低防灾减灾的盲目性,进而形成统一规划的动态防护保障框架.根据Johansson构建整个管网生命线网络的准则,考虑到不同节点的差异,以管线流的供给与需求确定节点介数来判断节点的权重,得到管件接口处节点的脆弱性指标.在灾险理论的基础上,利用定性与定量相结合的方法,建立了管网生命线系统的风险性评价指标.最后,在获得单元区域内管网风险指数后,利用ARCGIS导入属性图层展现不同区域的风险状况,得到城市不同等级管网生命线的危险区域图.结果表明,城市管网生命线需建立一个整体的联防管理非工程性防灾减灾体系,进行专业化与精细化管理,并在单元区域控制下降低灾险发生的频率.     

舰载机载成附件环境适应性设计与管理

以某型舰载机沿用/选用、新研/改进机载成品、附件为例,提出了一套适用于舰载电子设备、生命保障与环控设备、生活设施等机载成品、附件的环境适应性设计、试验与管理方法,规范了舰载机载成附件的腐蚀防护与控制设计程序与方法,为型号设计定型提供了有力保障,为后续机型的机载成附件环境工程工作的开展积累了经验。     

关于城市大气污染现状与综合防治对策研究

针对中国城市大气污染现状与综合防治对策,主要介绍了大气污染带来的严重后果,探讨了中国城市大气污染状况与原因分析,主要包括中国城市大气污染状况和污染的原因分析,给出了综合防治对策,做好对大气污染源的控制,主要包括加强提升全民环保意识、做好空气质量的实时监控、加大环保型高科技企业扶持力度、加大对“三高”企业的监管,同时加强控制交通与生活污染源,加强绿化工作的进行,实现对城市工业的合理布局,并对产业结构进行调整.     

哈尔滨市雾霾天气成因及防控对策研究

近两年哈尔滨连续出现重度污染或严重污染天气,大气污染已经明显引起了公共健康效应和经济损失,大气环境治理工作已到了刻不容缓的地步.本文对哈尔滨市大气环境质量概况、大气污染主要成因分析得出,大气细颗粒物主要来源于民用秸秆燃烧、工业、露天焚烧、道路交通、供暖、火电和非道路交通.其中,工业、民用秸秆燃烧、露天焚烧和供暖为最大污染来源.通过运用哈尔滨市大气环境容量的测算,计算得到现状污染源布局下的最大环境容量,燃煤、机动车尾气排放、扬尘这三种因素加重了哈尔滨市的大气污染,进而提出哈尔滨市大气污染防治对策,达到控制大气污染进一步加剧的可能性.     

城市消防救援网络形态特征、抗毁性与鲁棒性研究*

为探讨城市消防规划系统救援能力的空间布局科学性,采用复杂网络理论构建某城市消防救援站现状与规划网络模型。首先从模型紧密度、性能效率、连通性等方面分析复杂网络基本网络特征;其次采用节点随机/蓄意攻击、边随机/蓄意攻击、混合随机/蓄意攻击研究网络结构的抗毁性;然后根据失效发生位置,探讨网络组织内部信息系统失活导致的合作中断的鲁棒性特征;最后针对不同的规划建设方案,讨论城市消防系统建设规划的中远期时序性。研究结果可为提高消防网络的救援能力提供理论支撑。     

Modeling using dynamic variables – An approach for the design of loss prevention programs

Records from The National Safety Council [National Safety Council, 2007. Safety Intervention Evaluation: A Systematic Approach. <http://www.acgih.org/events/ControlBand/Thomas_SafetyIntervention.pdf> (accessed 10.01.07)] have shown that in 2004 alone, on-the-job injuries to workers constituted 35% of total recorded injuries in the United States. This generated an associated cost of about $142.2 billion. Unfortunately, the safety intervention programs enforced at work places to mitigate such losses are driven mainly by intuition and experience of involved safety personnel. This paper details implementing a computer program to furnish safety personnel with an empirical basis for designing loss prevention programs based on historical safety data. The computer tool is driven by a dynamic mathematical model which adapts itself to variations in data patterns and explains the correlation between historical incident rates and corresponding resources committed to interventions. This study empowers the industry with a tool that is capable of forming the core of optimizing valuable human resource allocation in safety program designs.     

基于有限元法的土坯民房地震响应分析研究

基于有限元法研究了土坯民房的地震响应特征,提出了实施土坯民房震害防治的对策性建议。地震动由结构底部向上传播时,低频部分被墙体吸收,水平加速度逐渐增大,揭示了低破坏性地震动损伤土坯民房屋盖系统、高破坏性地震动损坏土坯民房承重构件,进而导致整体结构损毁的动力机制。砖柱(木柱)承重土坯民房的地震响应大于墙体承重土坯民房,后者最大剪应力集中在中间开间的横墙和纵墙的连接处,最大主应力集中在中间开间的横墙上;前者最大剪应力集中在横墙和柱的连接处,最大主应力集中在中间开间的柱体上部。由于2种结构类型土坯民房的薄弱环节有所不同,地震时的致灾原因亦存在差异。     

基于BP神经网络在森林防火专家系统不确定推理中的应用研究

提出将改进的BP神经网络应用于森林防火专家系统的不确定性推理中,其良好的自学习和泛化能力,可以解决基于可信度规则的知识表示在实际应用中导致的规则激增,推理速度缓慢的问题。该方法将不确定的知识用可信度区间表示,通过知识编码,设计并训练BP网络,最后用MATLAB进行仿真。实验结果表明:BP神经网络可以自动学习专家的典型经验,并且能将之准确的推广,隐含层神经元个数的确定和典型样本的选取决定了准确精度。在实际的专家系统不确定推理应用中具有应用价值。