我国碳排放权交易价格影响因素回归分析

2017年年底我国正式启动统一碳排放权交易市场,碳市场为我国实行二氧化碳减排提供了有效手段。由于碳市场起步晚,市场交易机制、法规制度等方面亟待完善。本文在探究碳排放权交易机制和碳价格形成过程的基础上,尝试将技术进步作为解释变量之一进行分析。实证研究选取2014年7月—2018年12月五个活跃度高的碳试点日交易价格数据,采用多元回归模型分析六个影响因素与我国碳排放权交易价格的相关性。实证结果表明,金融市场、能源价格、空气质量、国际碳市场、技术进步均与碳排放权交易价格存在显著的相关关系,其中技术进步因素具有较强的影响力,与碳排放交易价格呈显著的负相关关系。碳排放权交易价格影响因素的确定可为我国健全和完善统一碳排放权交易市场提供决策参考。     

2种基于模式识别的环状燃气管网泄漏检测方法

为了将模式识别技术应用于环状燃气管网泄漏检测并找到合适的特征提取方法,以天津城建大学实验室环状燃气管网泄漏为例,将实验的28种工况作为测试样本,与之对应的模拟工况作为训练样本,采用提取压力图像特征向量法和节点压力矩阵法分别进行环状燃气管网的泄漏检测,采用支持向量机分类器将2种方法获得的特征向量进行训练与分类检验,进而将其分类准确率进行对比分析。研究结果表明:该2种方法均可用于环状燃气管网泄漏检测,提取压力图像特征向量法因有效地降低了特征向量的维度和数据波动的干扰,其结果更优。结合SCADA和GIS系统,可将该法应用于实际水、气、油管网泄漏检测和定位,有助于降低成本,提高检测效果。     

地下洞室群现场作业风险分析与向量模型

为了厘清地下洞室群施工现场作业风险因素间的关联效应,利用AMOS软件构建施工风险影响因素结构方程模型,对已建模型进行验证性因子分析,利用计算得出的M.I值对已构建的模型进行修正。根据所得模型计算出的路径系数和方差,对地下洞室群施工风险因素关联效应进行分析。结果表明:规章制度建设及执行、围岩稳定性、进场设备优良率、工人技术等级、工人逆反心理以及消极作业分别为各风险层次中影响最大的风险因素,且各风险层次间的关联效应表现出耦合关系;现场作业风险因素可分为现场主体因素、现场客体因素和现场控制因素3大类,它们之间成向量关系,以此为基础建立向量模型,可清晰直观地展示3大因素之间的主次关系。     

石家庄近地层风场辐合与重污染关系研究

石家庄多发生以风场辐合为特征的局地污染事件,客观判识辐合区和辐合过程强弱对重污染预报指示意义重大.为研究石家庄风场辐合特征及其对局地污染的贡献,更好地为区域重污染天气预报预警提供客观指标参考,在引入固定高度层内矢量通风系数物理量的基础上,结合箱体模型提出一种定量计算近地层风场辐合强度系数的方法,并利用ERA-Interim再分析资料计算了京津冀地区矢量通风系数以及辐合强度系数,对2016年9月—2019年3月期间10次典型风场辐合污染过程进行分析,探讨了风场辐合形成的原因和对污染贡献的关系.结果表明:①受地形影响,石家庄易出现近地层风向、风速辐合,均可归结为区域内输入通风量大于输出通风量,西部太行山地形的阻挡加重了其辐合程度.②风场辐合使空气中的水汽和污染物汇聚,为二次反应提供高湿条件,这种正反馈作用促发PM_2.5爆发性增长,期间ρ（PM_2.5）平均每小时可上升25 μg/m3.③石家庄近地层辐合强度系数在26以上时对污染贡献作用明显,辐合区污染强度比周边偏高1~2个等级,ρ（PM_2.5）比区域背景值偏高85%~200%.研究显示,风场辐合对重污染贡献明显,是形成局部污染物浓度偏高、PM_2.5爆发性增长的重要气象指标.      

实施乌鲁木齐市“蓝天计划”的落实情况及存在的问题分析

“九五”期间（1998年）,市政府向广大市民郑重宣布,用5年时间,彻底整治乌市大气环境,还市民一片蓝天,今年是关键的第四年,回顾“蓝天计划”的执行落实情况,总结取得的成绩,经验和存在的问题,对解决这些问题提出了对策建议。     

EFFECT OF PRICE STRUCTURE ON RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND1

ABSTRACT: Little is known about how different types of municipal water rate structures influence residential water use. Conventional wisdom suggests that increasing block rate structures promote conservation, but analysis of data from 85 Massachusetts communities does not support this view.     

LINEAR PROGRAMMING USE FOR EVALUATING WATER RESOURCES AND COST AND BENEFIT ALLOCATION1

ABSTRACT A linear programming model for a river basin was developed to include almost all water-related economic activity both for consumers and producers. The model was so designated that the entire basin or basin sub-division could be analyzed. The model included seven sectors, nine objective function criteria, and three river-flow levels. Economic basis for conflicts among sectors over incidence of cost allocation and level of economic activity can be traced to some chosen objective. The disposal of untreated household waste water, particularly from the rural household, directly into the river was consistent with maximizing net benefits and minimizing costs. The optimum resource allocation, water-treatment plants, farms and industry activities would change with flow level. For each of the three industries analyzed separately, paper, wool and tanning, public treatment of industrial waste water was the optimal treatment process in one or more of the solutions. Lake shoreline was the dominant feature determining lake-resource valuation. Implied capital value varied from $126 per shoreline foot to over $250 depending on discount rate. Implied prices on lake surface ranged from $42 to $147 per acre. Strong economic forces encouraged small lot sizes for vacation cottages.     

影子价格与企业管理决策

影子价格实际上是在最优决策下对一种资源效用价值的估价,它真实反映了资源在经济结构中对目标函数值的影响和贡献大小,资源的影子价格越高,表明该种资源对总目标的贡献越大.影子价格有利于资源的优化配置,并为调整产品结构、优化产业结构、增加经济效益提供了一个十分重要和有价值的数量依据.     

RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND IN METRO MANILA1

ABSTRACT: An econometric demand function is estimated for residential water use in Metropolitan Manila. Regression results using annual time series data from 1970 to 1981 show that residential water consumption responds to changes in economic variables. Residential demand showed an income (household) elasticity of 0.542 and a combined price elasticity of -0.287. Implications for planning and management are discussed.     

Managing Congestion: Economics of Price and Lottery Rationing

It is not uncommon for the carrying capacity for congestible facilities to be estimated before the allocation method is known. This paper shows how efficient capacity differs between two competing resource allocation mechanisms, one which is efficient (price) and one which is fair (lottery). The welfare theoretic implications of adopting lottery allocation rather than price allocation are illustrated from the perspectives of economic efficiency and the benefits obtained by resource users and suppliers. It is found that risk-neutral resource users will always prefer lottery allocation to price allocation. While price allocation is efficient, it is never in risk-neutral resource users» interests to have price allocation imposed. Conclusions are tested using a linear constant crowding demand function, in which case it is found that the efficient capacity for lottery rationing exceeds the efficient capacity where price is to be used to allocate a congestible resource. Objectives may be better met by joint use of allocation mechanisms, the implications of which are investigated using the linear demand model.