基于灰色预测模型的水资源可持续利用研究——以常州武进区为例

基于常州武进区2008年-2013年用水量,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并利用该模型预测了武进区2015年-2020年的用水量.根据武进区供水能力的现状,并结合预测结果,对武进区2015年-2020年日用水量进行供需平衡分析,以发现水资源供需缺口,然后提出解决对策,缓解供需矛盾.结果表明2017年武进区开始出现供水不足现象,缺口为6.8万m3/d.为实现水资源可持续利用,提出新增滆湖供水水量,落实工业、农业和社会生活的节水措施,提高污水资源化率的三项策略.     

高校能源消耗建模研究与应用

针对高校能源消耗建模研究与应用问题,文中介绍了高校能耗日益增长现状,给出了高校能耗模型构建,为节约能源必须做好精准能耗预测.建立了灰色径向基函数神经网络高校能耗预测模型,并采用基于排序等分法赌盘规则选择算子的遗传算法对该模型进行全局优化,进一步用实例对比分析评估了模型的有效性.实践表明,优化后的模型能有效预测能耗,与传统单一的建模方式相比,有更好的拟合性、稳定性、预测精度和更快的收敛速度,为节能评估和设计提供了决策依据.     

新疆生物质能资源的经济效益分析与评价

生物质能资源具有可再生和环境友好的双重属性,现已成为新疆能源发展的重要组成部分。对新疆生物质能资源进行总量估算,分析其地区分布特点,运用替代价值法分别计算秸秆、牲畜粪便及能源植物三大类生物质能资源的经济效益,并从结果中分析得出,新疆生物质能资源在区域分布上具有资源分布不均、＂西高东低＂以及效益高低与自然条件关联性大等特征。因此,新疆在发展生物质能源产业时应当因地制宜,才能最大限度将区域资源优势转化为经济优势。     

浅谈节能环保技术在园区中的应用

建筑行业的迅速发展,造成了大量资源耗损和环境污染.将节能环保理念应用到建筑和园区建设中,节约资源减少污染势在必行.分别从建筑保温、可再生能源的利用和生态建设三大方面介绍了节能环保技术在园区中的应用,并计算节能效果,结果表明,采用节能环保技术能大大减少碳及烟尘的排放量,有效地保护了环境.     

环境因子对某新型延时起爆装置性能影响研究

目的研究环境因子对某火工元件延时性能和输出能量的影响。方法根据某型延时起爆装置的组成结构特点,依据火工品试验法、军械装备环境试验法,结合极限使用环境条件设计了高温高湿、温度冲击试验。结果高温高湿的延迟时间范围为260~630 ms;温度冲击的延迟时间范围为283~513 ms,高温高湿输出能力范围为13~17 mm,温度冲击输出能力范围为13~18 mm。结论高温高湿试验对延迟时间影响较大,出现超出指标的延迟时间。     

ABR-MBR一体化工艺节能降耗措施优化研究

能耗高和膜污染是限制膜生物反应器(MBR)广泛应用的重要因素.为降低工艺运行能耗和延缓膜污染,以厌氧折流板反应器(ABR)-MBR工艺处理生活污水为例,对工艺结构和脱氮除磷运行条件进行优化.结果表明,通过优化ABR-MBR工艺结构,可降低43%的运行能耗,同时可保持较高的COD、NH+4-N、TN和TP去除效果,平均去除率分别为91%、85%、76%和86%.另外,添加颗粒填料可有效延缓膜污染,不过也改变了膜污染的形成过程,膜内部污染物含量显著增多,碳水化合物含量增加,而蛋白质含量减少,碳水化合物/蛋白质比明显增大.最终,增强了MBR反应器的实际应用性能.     

Sorption of organic compounds to activated carbons. Evaluation of isotherm models

Sorption to ‘hard carbon’ (black carbon, coal, kerogen) in soils and sediments is of major importance for risk assessment of organic pollutants. We argue that activated carbon (AC) may be considered a model sorbent for hard carbon. Here, we evaluate six sorption models on a literature dataset for sorption of 12 compounds onto 12 ACs and one charcoal, at different temperatures (79 isotherms in total). A statistical analysis, accounting for differences in the number of fitting parameters, demonstrates that the dual Langmuir equation is in general superior and/or preferable to the single and triple Langmuir equation, the Freundlich equation, a Polanyi–Dubinin–Manes equation, and the Toth equation. Consequently, the analysis suggests the presence of two types of adsorption sites: a high-energy (HE) type of site and a low-energy (LE) type of site. Maximum adsorption capacities for the HE domain decreased with temperature while those for the LE domain increased. Average Gibbs free energies for adsorption from the hypothetical pure liquid state at 298 K were fairly constant at −15 ± 4 and −5 ± 4 kJ mol⁻¹ for the HE and LE domain, respectively.     

Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Après Paris: Breakthrough innovation as the primary moral obligation of rich countries

While the notion of differentiated responsibility has always included an element of technological transfer, the growing disparity between the deployment of non-scalable renewable energy sources in the rich countries and the massive expansion of fossil infrastructure elsewhere has brought new urgency to issues of climate leadership. Breakthrough innovation into technologies capable of providing an abundance of clean energy now appears necessary not only to broaden energy access but also to ensure that fossil fuels are quickly displaced globally (including in those countries that have failed to take climate change seriously). Moreover, it is reasonable to expect that a climatechanged world in itself will demand abundant energy to facilitate everything from carbon dioxide removal to mass desalination for agriculture and other adaptation measures. Considering the moral and political impossibility of treating sustained poverty as the “solution” to the climate crisis, this paper suggests that rich countries have a moral obligation to invest in breakthrough innovation into technologies that are compatible with a future global economic convergence around OECD-levels.     

基于循环经济理念的煤炭型老工业基地振兴的研究与分析——华丰煤矿为例

华丰煤矿就其地理位置，资源条件和社会环境而言，发展循环经济有着独特优势。按照发展循环经济的要求，充分合理的开发利用资源是当前落实科学发展观所迫切需要解决的问题，发展循环经济需要市场机制与煤矿系统的双重作用，尤其离不开煤矿系统的推进。