Large-scale risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in shoreline sediments from Saudi Arabia: Environmental legacy after twelve years of the Gulf war oil spill

A large-scale assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from the 1991 Gulf War oil spill was performed for 2002-2003 sediment samples (n = 1679) collected from habitats along the shoreline of Saudi Arabia. Benthic sediment toxicity was characterized using the Equilibrium Partitioning Sediment Benchmark Toxic Unit approach for 43 PAHs (ESBTU_FCV,43). Samples were assigned to risk categories according to ESBTU_FCV,43 values: no-risk (≤1), low (>1-≤2), low-medium (>2-≤3), medium (>3-≤5) and high-risk (>5). Sixty seven percent of samples had ESBTU_FCV,43 > 1 indicating potential adverse ecological effects. Sediments from the 0-30 cm layer from tidal flats, and the >30-<60 cm layer from heavily oiled halophytes and mangroves had high frequency of high-risk samples. No-risk samples were characterized by chrysene enrichment and depletion of lighter molecular weight PAHs, while high-risk samples showed little oil weathering and PAH patterns similar to 1993 samples. North of Safaniya sediments were not likely to pose adverse ecological effects contrary to sediments south of Tanaqib. Landscape and geomorphology has played a role on the distribution and persistence in sediments of oil from the Gulf War.     

Plant/soil concentration ratios for paired field and garden crops, with emphasis on iodine and the role of soil adhesion

In the effort to predict the risks associated with contaminated soils, considerable reliance is placed on plant/soil concentration ratio (CR) values measured at sites other than the contaminated site. This inevitably results in the need to extrapolate among the many soil and plant types. There are few studies that compare CR among plant types that encompass both field and garden crops. Here, CRs for 40 elements were measured for 25 crops from farm and garden sites chosen so the grain crops were in close proximity to the gardens. Special emphasis was placed on iodine (I) because data for this element are sparse. For many elements, there were consistent trends among CRs for the various crop types, with leafy crops > root crops ≥ fruit crops ≈ seed crops. Exceptions included CR values for As, K, Se and Zn which were highest in the seed crops. The correlation of CRs from one plant type to another was evident only when there was a wide range in soil concentrations. In comparing CRs between crop types, it became apparent that the relationships differed for the rare earth elements (REE), which also had very low CR values. The CRs for root and leafy crops of REE converged to a minimum value. This was attributed to soil adhesion, despite the samples being washed, and the average soil adhesion for root crops was 500 mg soil kg⁻¹ dry plant and for leafy crops was 5 g kg⁻¹. Across elements, the log CR was negatively correlated with log Kd (the soil solid/liquid partition coefficient), as expected. Although, this correlation is expected, measures of correlation coefficients suitable for stochastic risk assessment are not frequently reported. The results suggest that r ≈ −0.7 would be appropriate for risk assessment.     

Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

交通事故动态分析法在肇事逃逸案件侦查中的研究与实践

针对传统交通事故动态分析法在交通肇事逃逸案件侦查中投入高、效率低、精度差的缺点,笔者在信息主导警务理念的指导下,综合运用逻辑学、系统科学、社会学、心理学、情报科学相关原理,动态分析交通事故现场的痕迹、车辆行驶轨迹、道路交通环境、警情综合信息、驾驶人行为与逃逸心理,以及受害者损伤特征,准确掌握车辆或驾驶人局部特征,从而为侦破交通肇事逃逸案件提供精确的查缉信息,使警务行动实现精确用警、快速反应和精确打击的目标。笔者给出了利用动态分析法侦破交通肇事逃逸案件的流程和步骤;指出提高办案水平,迫切需要加强警务信息和社会信息的有效融合,研发专门系统,强化信息研判。     

Ecotoxicological effects assessment in the Netherlands: Recent developments

In a recently published annex to the National Environmental Policy Plan of the Netherlands (1989), attention was paid to ecotoxicological effects assessment. The proposed procedure was based on the advice of the Health Council of the Netherlands (1989) on risk assessment of toxic chemicals for ecosystems. The various extrapolation methods described by the Health Council are critically discussed in this paper. The extrapolation method of Van Straalen and Denneman (1989) is evaluated for eight chemicals and 11 aquatic species. Conclusions are drawn about the quality and quantity of the ecotoxicological data needed for aquatic effects assessment. For the soil—a compartment that is often at risk—ecotoxicological effects assessment is not possible because suitable ecotoxicological test methods still have to be developed.     

Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Integrated assessment: Missing link in the acid rain debate?

The United States is finding it difficult to develop a coherent policy on acid rain. Despite more than a decade of scientific research and policy initiatives, no clear course of action has been identified. This article argues that what is missing is an integrated assessment of the scientific knowledge that will guide the political process. The role of the integrated assessment is described, and a conceptual framework presented that would accomplish the desired goal. Currently available acid rain assessment models are compared against this framework and found to be less than satisfactory. The article concludes by stressing the opportunity now available to the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to perform such an assessment and break the logjam.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.