基于风险的检验(RBI)在国内合成氨装置中的应用

利用API581基于风险的检验原理,采用RISKWISE分析软件对九江石化合成氨装置中的设备和管道进行了风险评估;并在装置采用的工艺、不同装置的设备和管道的失效机理和计算出的风险分布这3方面,将其风险评估结果与国内兄弟单位完成的其他合成氨装置的风险评估结果进行了比对;其结果体现了我国目前合成氨装置的设备和管道风险的大致分布,可供我国其他合成氨装置的风险评估参考,也为制定我国合成氨装置基于风险检验的法规标准提供了相关数据;同时,对国内采用针对装置的基于风险的检验的新模式进行了探讨。     

空中交通管制雷达管制训练分类考核方法研究

分析当前我国管制员雷达培训考核环节中存在的问题,提出一种新的雷达管制培训的考核方法——检查单式考核,根据管制过程所涉及的各个环节以及航空器在空中的运行状态,对雷达管制培训实施分类考核。并结合一个进近雷达管制考核表的实例,分析其检查单式考核表的设计思想,详细说明其考核表记录和考核结果量化的步骤和方法。     

煤矿危险源辨识与多层评价分级研究

根据煤炭系统生产的复杂特点,提出了采用系统科学的方法,对煤炭生产进行系统的单元划分,采用安全系统科学辨识的方法对危险源进行辨识.在此基础上,提出利用层次分析法和模糊动态评判的方法对危险源进行初次分级,根据危险源的耦合特性,提出二次动态分级的方法,对初次分级进行调整,确定危险源科学、合理的级别,并提出了进一步现实性评价的建议.     

现有评价方法在油气长输管道工程安全评价中的应用

油气长输管道工程的安全评价工作正在成为新建及在役管道安全运行的保障。针对目前国内已开展的油气长输管道工程安全评价现状,结合自身安全评价工作实践,对现有评价方法在油气长输管道工程安全评价中的应用进行了讨论,并提出相应建议。     

危险货物道路运输系统的风险评价

分析了危险货物道路运输系统的风险影响因素,在此基础上建立了风险评价指标体系,并采用专家咨询法确定了各指标的权重,提出了使用模糊数学综合评价法对危险货物道路运输系统进行风险评价,并通过实例对评价模型进行了验证.结果表明,利用模糊综合评价的方法对危险货物道路运输系统的风险进行研究,可以为危险货物道路运输企业和交通安全监管部门对危险货物道路运输采取有效的安全控制措施,提供有益的参考.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Developing a Standardized Water Quality Index for Evaluating Surface Water Quality1

Abstract: There is a significant need for a science‐based approach to interpret water‐monitoring data and to facilitate the rapid transfer of information to water resource managers and the general public. The water quality Index (WQI) is defined as a single numeric score that describes the surface water quality condition at a particular time and location. The objective of this paper is to describe the WQI concept and the approach for developing an ecoregion‐specific standardized WQI that meets the needs described above. The premise of the proposed WQI is based on categorizing scientifically documented aquatic life responses to changes in instream water chemistry. The method uses an aggregated procedure that matches the entire range of standardized probable biological responses to standardized narrative water quality evaluation categories and standardized rank score categories. The calculation of WQI and decision‐making process are performed within an Excel spreadsheet software program. The article includes examples of the proposed WQI applications that could enhance effective water resource management and facilitate timely communication of water quality conditions to water resource managers and the general public.     

RIVER AMENITY EVALUATION: A REVIEW AND COMMENTARY1

ABSTRACT: During the past 15 years a number of methods have been developed that purport to evaluate the amenity values of rivers. Most methods are designed to identify the physical, biological, cultural, and esthetic features of a river or river corridor that are conducive to recreation, preservation, and other amenity values. This paper reviews and comments on 13 methods that evaluate amenity values. The methods are reviewed and discussed under three general headings: River Recreation Potential Evaluation, River Esthetic Evaluation, and River Preservation Evaluation. A final section of the paper identifies areas where improvements and further research are needed.     

Managing bog environments for recreational experiences

Bogs are of interest to outdoor recreationists, but little information exists concerning how recreation resource managers might manage these areas to enhance visitor benefits. This study evaluates bog visitor characteristics and experiences, visual preferences, and reasons for visiting. Implications for recreational resource management of bogs include the location and design of boardwalk trails and management of understory vegetation to meet the visual preferences and motives of bog visitors.     

Public reaction to the risks of energy technology

Implicit in every government decision on energy technology is a trade-off of a certain amount of risk in return for societal benefits. As a result of growing public concern over such risks, environmental analysts are increasingly being requested not only to describe potential adverse consequences but also to quantify their probability. However, this task is frustrated not only by inadequate experience with, and incomplete knowledge of, the causality of environmental impacts, but also by a disparity between individual and societal views of risk. While the societal view is based on objective risk functions andnet societal benefit, individuals tend to rely on subjective judgment, and consider the distribution as well as the amount of benefit. Thus, environmental risk assessments, produced by analysts on behalf of society as a whole, are likely to be quite speculative, and are unlikely to be reliable indicators of the acceptability of risk to the public.